During my years at university, I took many classes on International Politics. The few moments from these that I remember have little to do with the subject matter. That was because the lectures were often dull and the assigned readings even duller. Countless hours were spent talking about theories and systems that have never survived contact with human nature. One of my professors, a small man with probing eyes who had more hair growing out of his ears then on his head, would spend three hours each week curing our class of insomnia while offering up lectures on the finer points of obscure treaties. He never failed to find an opportunity to raise the topic of his personal favorite, the Kellogg-Briand Pact. This forgotten international agreement became a mainstay of his lectures. Named after the United States Secretary of State Frank Kellogg and French Foreign Minister Aristide Briand, the pact was signed in 1928.
There is a reason not many are familiar with a pact that attempted to outlaw war. In an ideal world this would have been a great idea, but it was bound to fail during an interwar period seething with tensions. For me, the Kellogg-Briand Pact has become synonymous with well meaning and meaningless international agreements. Perhaps that was why after I recently learned that the Montreux Convention was being invoked because of the Ukraine-Russia War I had to suppress a roll of the eyes. Conventions and Pacts can help untangle messy international affairs when you have like minded nations involved. Unfortunately, these agreements usually do not last the test of wartime. The Montreux Convention has turned out to be different. Not only is it in force, but it is having a pronounced effect on the military situation in one of the most important theaters of the war.
Closing Time – No Go Zone
The Montreux Convention is an international agreement negotiated and signed in 1936 at the Montreux Palace in Switzerland. It settled the question over who would control access to the Bosporus and Dardanelle Straits in Turkey that leads between the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The convention guarantees safe passage for all civilian vessels through the straits. This has greatly helped facilitate trade in the Black Sea. The Convention also regulates warships using the straits and entering the Black Sea with the most rights reserved for the littoral nations, including Ukraine and Russia. Other nation’s access is more heavily regulated. The convention’s importance to the Ukraine-Russia War lies in the fact that it allows Turkey to close access to the straits when any of the littoral countries are at war. That is just what the Turks have done much to the detriment of Russia.
While the Russians have a sizable force of twenty ships in the Black Sea at this time, its fleet suffered a devastating blow when Ukrainian Neptune missiles struck their Black Sea flagship, the Moskva. The ship later sunk while being towed back to its base in Sevastopol. The Moskva was integral to coordinating Russian strikes on the mainland. While the Russians have other ships that could act as a replacement for the Moskva, none of them are in the Black Sea. With the Straits closed for what looks like the duration of the war, the Russians will not be able to send another similar warship into the Black Sea. If that was not bad enough, there were reports today that the Russian frigate Admiral Makarov had been struck by Neptune missiles causing major damage to the ship. This would be another in what is fast becoming a litany of losses for Russian watercraft in the Black Sea. At last count, no less than 12 Russian watercraft have been lost in the war. The Russian Navy’s performance is becoming another yet example of military incompetence.
Habitual Offender – The Russian Rule of Lawlessness
The Montreux Convention’s effect on the war is a striking example of how the rule of law can be used to harm the Russian military effort. Vladimir Putin’s Russian regime is diametrically opposed to the rule of law. Laws in Russia can be (and often have been) changed to suit the whims of Putin. The rule of law is conceptual rather than concrete in Russia. Putin has made a habit of working outside the law in Russia, thus it is little wonder that he would try to do the same thing in international affairs. The fact that he was allowed to get away with it in the taking of Crimea only added to his arrogant disdain for anything approaching a rules based international system. The Ukraine-Russia War has completely exposed Putin’s disregard for agreed upon international norms. He and those closest to him must have been shocked that Turkey would trigger their right to halt military traffic in the straits under the Montreux Convention. This is a greater blow to the Russian war effort than some might imagine.
The Russians would dare not try to force a warship through the Straits since Turkey is a member of NATO. Any Russian attempt to breach the closure by Russia might trigger a military situation that could bring the entire alliance into the war. Furthermore, the Turks have an impressive and well-prepared military that the Russians would not be able to handle in a war. This leaves Russia with dwindling options in the Black Sea. At best, they hope to keep their ships afloat while continuing to blockade the Ukrainian coastline. This has severely crimped the Ukrainian economy. Since the Ukrainians cannot get their goods to distant markets by sea, this has also had knock on effects causing distress around the world. This is most apparent in the grain trade, or at this point the lack thereof as Ukrainian wheat cannot be shipped out. Bread prices have soared in the Middle East and North Africa, among other regions.
Self-Defeating – Holding The World Hostage
The Russian blockade of the Ukrainian coastline in the Black Sea is another one of Putin’s tactics where he tries to hold the larger world hostage. How long this will last is hard to say. While the Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports has been one of their few successes, it is self-defeating. It keeps what looks like an unwinnable war going. While the war continues, the Montreux Convention will be in effect. Russia’s ability to control the Black Sea will be increasingly threatened. The rule of law is being enforced and there is nothing that Vladimir Putin can do to stop it.
Click here for: Turning In On Itself – Russia & Victory Day Scenarios (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #69)
Europe Between East And West 