Loss of Control – Russia & Eastern Europe 2014 – 2022 (From Peace To War #4)

All dictators are control freaks. They have good reason to be. Dictator’s lives and livelihoods are contingent upon the amount of control they can exercise over their subjects. The most important level of control is exercised within their own national borders. Without this they are dead men (and they are almost always men). A dictator’s control often dissipates beyond their own borders. Only the most mendacious or powerful dictators can exercise control of other countries. For instance, Josef Stalin’s influence over Eastern European nations following the end of World War II. Stalin used the Red Army and control of each nation’s Interior Ministry to destroy political opposition and implement a communist system shaped in his image. It was a diabolical task, but Stalin and his henchmen were up to it. They solidified Soviet control of the Eastern Bloc to such an extent that it would last four and a half decades. That was until the Berlin Wall came tumbling down, the Iron Curtain was sundered, and Eastern Europe finally freed itself from the yoke of totalitarianism and tyranny.

Westward movement – Pro-EU demonstration in Kyiv 2013 (Credit: Evgeny Feldman)

Regimes & Revolution – Euromaidan
The Soviet Union could not withstand the forces of history pulling it apart. The once massive empire fractured into fifteen different nations. At some point during his long reign as Russia’s neo-tsar, Vladimir Putin decided to try and reassemble the pieces. This took on various forms of political, economic, and armed coercion. During his first years in power, Putin had trouble doing this because his focus was on centralizing control of Russia. In 2008 he began to take active military measures to reassemble parts of the old Soviet Empire, but under a different guise. Putin began a historical mission to create a Greater Russia. One that led to the invasion of Georgia in 2008, the emasculation of Belarus to the point that it became a client state, and constant meddling in Ukraine’s affairs. The latter bore fruit for Putin when despite the 2008 Orange Revolution, Kremlin support helped get pro-Russian politician Viktor Yanukovych elected as Ukraine’s President in 2010. A Putin puppet was now ensconced in Kyiv. While seen as a victory for the Kremlin at the time, this was really the beginning of the massive rupture in Ukraine’s relations with Russia that would eventually lead to the largest war in Europe since the end of World War II.

Viktor Yanukovych was everything the Kremlin wanted him to be. Corrupt, compliant, and thuggish. He was also weak with extremely poor political instincts. Ukrainians in many parts of the country loathed him as a Russian stooge. He misread the Ukrainian population’s mood which was to align with the rest of Europe rather than Russia. When Yanukovych waffled over signing an association agreement with the European Union, the situation exploded into protests across much of the country. This led to Euromaidan in 2014-15 where Yanukovych was forced to flee the country. He escaped into the arms of the Kremlin. They could not reinstall Yanukovych as president. Instead, Putin would be forced to deal with Yanukovych’s hapless successor, Petro Poroshenko. The latter was an oligarch, but at least he was an anti-Russian one. The problem was that like all oligarchs, Poroshenko’s self-interests came above those of the state.

Ready for change – Euromaidan protests in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv (Credit: Helgi)

Unsettled Affairs – War in the Donbas
Meanwhile, Putin decided to take advantage of Ukraine’s political upheaval by sending Russian troops without insignia to occupy Crimea. This was a bold stroke that helped Putin overcome two problems at the same time. The occupation and annexation of Crimea proved to be wildly popular in Russia. This sent Putin’s approval rating soaring to levels that other leaders could only imagine. It also led to more political turmoil in Ukraine. The Ukrainian state was too weak at the time to challenge the land grab. The international community was caught flat footed. This lack of action only led the Kremlin to go even further in their attempt to destabilize Ukraine. Military action by pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region were supported by the Kremlin. Russian forces crossed into the Donbas where they helped prosecute a war on Ukrainian soil.

The Russians did not seek to win the war outright. Instead, their military forces were the vanguard of a policy to perpetually destabilize the Ukrainian government. Putin wanted to ensure a weak government in Ukraine with autonomy for the self-styled Russian puppet states of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Now Ukraine not only lacked territorial integrity, but it was also forced to fight a war on its own territory for eight years. Today, that War in the Donbas is viewed as a lower intensity version of the current conflict. One that is on the verge of stretching to the ten-year mark with no end in sight.

Revolutionary undertaking – Euromaidan clash between police and protestors in Kyiv
(Credit: Mstyslav Chernov)

Turn of Events – The Ultimate Proof
War in the Donbas from 2014-2022 settled absolutely nothing. The conflict suited the Kremlin’s interest. The same kinds of frozen conflicts without a lasting resolution had been fomented by the Kremlin in both Transnistria (Moldova east of the Dniester River) and South Ossetia inside Georgia’s territory. This was a divide, but not quite conquer strategy. The unsettled nature of these conflicts benefitted no one other than Russia. The affected nations were still beholden to Russia. Frozen conflicts arrested their development. Nowhere was this truer than in Ukraine. The country could not develop into a stable democracy with a strong orientation towards the west amid an unresolved war.

The situation would have remained this way if not for the unprovoked, full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia that began on February 24, 2022. Putin thought this would resolve the Ukrainian situation in the Kremlin’s favor. Instead, it has led to the exact opposite of what he expected. Russia is now bogged down in a major war that threatens to destabilize it as well. The Ukrainians have been boosted by western support. Ukraine may be a war-torn nation, but it is now more united than at any point since gaining independence in 1991. Putin’s plans for a Greater Russia that rolls back NATO and the European Union in its near abroad is in tatters. While the war’s outcome is uncertain, one thing has become apparent. Russia’s attempt to reassert itself in Eastern Europe has failed. Their political and military defeats in Ukraine are the ultimate proof.

To Be Continued – Russia, Ukraine & Prolonging The War (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #316)

The Ukraine-Russia War shows no signs of ending anytime soon. As a matter of fact, the war now looks more likely to continue for several more years than it does end in 2023. Both sides are nowhere near exhausting their resources. While the Russians have lost an incredible amount of men and material, they keep finding more of both for the battlefield. This has not proven decisive, but it has prolonged the war. The Ukrainians are at a major disadvantage vis a vis the Russians when it comes to manpower and weaponry. Fortunately for them, NATO and the European Union are their top two allies. They have committed to supplying the Ukrainians at least in a hypothetical sense for “as long as it takes” to expel Russian troops from Ukrainian territory.

“As long as it takes” can be interpreted in different ways. It is more a message for the Russians – specifically Vladimir Putin – than it is for Ukrainians. “As long as it takes” sounds open ended, but because Ukraine’s allies have democratic governments that policy could be open to change. Political considerations are always at the forefront in western nations that wage war. Governments are much more fluid than autocratic ones. The will of the people could lead to less support for Ukraine, but not anytime soon. For now, “as long as it takes” is good enough for Ukraine since it means support will be provided throughout the foreseeable future which includes 2023.

Standing together – Volodymyr Zelensky at the European Union

Disruptions & Concessions – Non-Aligned Nations

For Russia, keeping the war going would seem to be much easier than it is for Ukraine. That is because Vladimir Putin has as close to total political control of Russia as anyone since Josef Stalin when it was part of the Soviet Union. Putin is the despot-in-chief and his word is final. Anyone who thinks otherwise need only look at his unilateral decision to invade Ukraine. Of course, Putin was advised by a small coterie of trusted cronies, but he was then and still is today the ultimate arbiter of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Putin’s isolation from others both inside and outside Russia is as much an asset as it is a drawback for Russia continuing the war. Dissenting voices have been silenced inside Russia by the threat of imprisonment or worse. The only checks on Putin’s prosecution of the war come from outside Russia.

Several nations – such as India – that are not aligned with Russia nor Ukraine and the west, have expressed their displeasure to Putin for invading a sovereign nation’s territory. And it is not just the violation of internationally recognized borders that upset many non-aligned nations, even worse was the economic upheaval the war caused in everything from food supplies to rising prices to disrupting energy flows. Russia has been forced to offer some of these nations concessions to mitigate the economic disruption. For instance, selling India oil at prices well below market value. Putin can stomach the criticism as long as these countries do not align with Ukraine and the west. In the Kremlin’s world, being for Russia amounts to not being against it. That is the best Putin can expect.

Desperate despots – Kim Jong Un & Vladimir Putin

The China Syndrome – Friends of The Friendless
If there is one nation that Putin cannot afford to alienate it is China. While Putin counts other totalitarian countries such as Belarus, Iran, and North Korea among Russia’s staunchest allies, none of those nations is a mighty power. At best, Iran is a midsized power that like Russia is disruptive. The Iranians do not have the economic or military heft to be a major player in the war. They are reduced to supplying weapons, but not nearly as many as Russia needs. As for North Korea, it is the ultimate pariah state with an economy that is more medieval than modern. The North Koreans can supply weapons and ammunition, but little else.

The one great power Putin cannot afford to turn against him is China.  It is no secret that the Kremlin is doing everything possible to cultivate China. The country is a transformative economic and military power that can have a transformative effect on the conflict. Especially if it began to supply Russia with weapons. China is ruled by Xi Jinping who is as autocratic as Putin just less crass about it. Reportedly, Xi has expressed displeasure to Putin for invading and causing geopolitical instability. China’s rise has been predicated on stability both at home and abroad. Putin’s decision to launch a full-scale war, the largest in Europe since 1945, has wreaked havoc on world markets.

This makes China very uneasy about their relationship with Russia. The Chinese resented getting caught in the undertow of Putin’s war after being surprised by his decision to invade Ukraine. It is doubtful they were given advance notice. This does not mean China is against Russia. Instead, the Chinese lean towards Russia out of self-interest and solidarity with a fellow authoritarian nation. China is deeply involved in a tense relationship with the United States. Anything that is hinders America’s support of the international rules bases order is good with China.

Close contact – Xi Jinping & Vladimir Putin

Powerful Messages – Vision of the World
America and China are locked in a geopolitical competition that could result in a military conflict over Taiwan. That issue is close in nature to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China sees Taiwan as an inseparable from it in much the same way Russia saw Ukraine. If Russia’s war in Ukraine fails, than this would serve to boost western confidence in dealing with China over Taiwan. On the other hand, if Russia gains a victory or at least keeps part of the territory it now occupies in Ukraine, that will send a powerful message that might makes right. This would bolster China’s confidence that they could invade Taiwan and gain control of it. Of all the actors outside of Russia and Ukraine in the war, China and the United States have the most to gain or lose depending upon the outcome. Whichever side emerges victorious will see it as strengthening their vision of the world. The Ukraine-Russia War is a fight for the future world order.

Click here for: Predictable Disaster – The Battle of Vuhledar (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #317)

Frozen Conflict – Russia’s Winter Offensive (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #315)

This is the coldest winter in Ukraine, but not because of the weather. The Ukraine-Russia War has turned into a rough approximation of a frozen conflict. In the usual definition of that term, a frozen conflict is one in which armed conflict has ended, but there is no political resolution. At the time, the Ukraine-Russia War is a frozen conflict that differs somewhat from the traditional definition. Ferocious fighting continues along some parts of the frontlines, most prominently in the Donbas region around the cities of Bakhmut and Vuledahr or at least what is left of them. These operations are part of the Russian’s planned winter offensive. They bolstered their ranks with 250,000 conscripts from the autumn “partial mobilization.” These soldiers, along with massive artillery barrages, were going to push forward against Ukrainian forces worn down from attritional warfare. The reality is that the Russians have only been able to inch their way forward and the winter offensive is frozen in place.

Frozen conflict – Ukrainian soldier in Bakhmut (Credit: Emanuel Esatolli)

Bogged Down – From Improbable To Impossible
The Russian failure to gain ground is illustrated by the Battle of Bakhmut. For months, the Russians have attempted to take the city which is located at a relatively unimportant junction of two roads. They have lost thousands of men and expended a massive amounts of armaments in the process. Nevertheless, Ukrainian forces continue to hold out against incredible odds. While the fall of Bakhmut seems inevitable, each passing day that does not happen hinders Russian efforts to go on the offensive. The Russians have already been forced to downsize their expectations. A major push forward in the Donbas this winter now looks improbable, a breakthrough impossible. They are counting their gains in meters rather than kilometers.

By the standards of what was expected by the Russians and feared by the Ukrainians, the current fighting in Donbas is going nowhere. Neither army has the military might to impose their will upon the other. Russian forces are the ones trying now. Later in the spring it will be the turn of the Ukrainian Army. The current fighting is as violent and deadly as it has been anywhere in the war. Nevertheless, this had not changed facts on the ground. The Russians get thousands of their own soldiers killed and wounded, take a ruined village or two, then do the same thing all over again. Eventually they will take Bakhmut, but that will change nothing. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are in defensive mode which is to their advantage. The Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbas are holding their lines the best they can while taking heavy casualties.

Focal point – Battling for Bakhmut

Ready Reserve – The Waiting Game
There are more Ukrainian soldiers in reserve that could be used to defend Bakhmut, Vuledahr and other areas in the Donbas where the Russians have focused their offensive efforts. Many Ukrainian reserves are being held out of the fighting and saved for the expected spring offensive. The Ukrainian commander, Valery Zaluzhny said as much in an interview with The Economist magazine back in December. He knows that troops in the Donbas facing Russian assaults are being sacrificed to a certain extent. This is so the Ukrainians have enough forces to conduct their own offensive in the spring where they hope to breakthrough the Russian lines.

Any Ukrainian offensive will be extremely difficult to conduct since the Russians have spent months building up their defensive lines. It will require a degree of skill that only the most advanced military forces in the world have shown. The Ukrainians are highly skilled, adaptable, and clever in their tactics. Whether they can successfully carry out a combined arms offensive with armor, artillery, and infantry remains to be seen. This will be their largest offensive of the war and possibly the most decisive. In the meantime, Ukrainian forces must hold the line against wave after wave of Russian assaults.

Usually, a frozen conflict favors the side with greater resources. It is little wonder that this has been a favorite Russian strategy throughout Putin’s time in power. The Russian prosecution of a prolonged, low intensity war in the Donbas from 2014 until the full-scale invasion of Ukraine was a prime example. What Putin did not imagine or prefer was that his full-scale invasion of Ukraine beginning a year ago would bog down into the sort of bloody stalemate that is happening today. While Putin seems confident that he can eventually wear the Ukrainians down by keeping the war going until their support from western allies’ wanes, he runs the risk of exhausting his own forces to such an extent that they become vulnerable to a Ukrainian counterattack. Either that or they are only fit to hold their own lines.

Long winter – Civilian in Bakhmut

Net Gain – Defensive Minded
Putin has demanded that the Russian military bring capture all the Donbas. He wanted the same thing when the war began a year ago. The closest Russian forces came to achieving that goal was last spring-early summer when they managed to make slow, but progressive gains. By the time that offensive halted at the beginning of July, Russian forces were no longer fit to take the offensive. Much of their professional military forces were lost in the process. Russian offensives have not been the same since. This situation could now be repeating itself. The Russian forces are once again incapable of fighting their way forward without expending massive amounts of men and ammunition in the process. After several weeks of assaults, they have not made it far from their starting point. There is no end in sight. Thus, the conflict for them might as well be frozen. This does not suit the Russians.

Conversely, a frozen conflict is about the best-case winter scenario the Ukrainians could have hoped for in the face of a Russian offensive. They are not losing very little ground so far. Repelling a Russian offensive is a net gain for Ukrainian forces. With the right weapons and thousands of fresh troops they can go on the offensive this spring. If the Russians cannot move forward except at great cost, they must resort to waiting out the war. Lack of progress on the battlefield is particularly difficult for the Russian military which came to conquer not sit in dirty trenches waiting for a Ukrainian counterattack. This is the situation Russian forces now find themselves in. The conflict has become frozen, the next thaw will not occur until Ukrainian forces go on the offensive.      

Click here for: To Be Continued – Russia, Ukraine & Prolonging The War (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #316)