Echoes of History – Putinism & Nazism (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #264)

For an overwhelming majority of Europeans, Adolf Hitler and Nazism are nothing more and nothing less than history. And distant history at that. Four generations have passed since the Fuehrer blew his brains out in a bunker beneath the bombed carcass of Berlin. Hitler had demonically converted the German people to serve the ideology of Nazism. This was supposed to yield a thousand-year Reich. Instead, it led to World War II, which turned into the worst war in human history.  As the years pass, the memory of Hitler and Nazism’s mass malevolence fades. In a couple more decades there will come a time when there is no one left alive who lived in Nazi Germany and experienced Hitler’s regime firsthand. For Germans this is mostly a good thing. It means the new and better Germany which was created as a response to the rise and fall of Nazism has been successful beyond all expectations. German militarism is non-existent, and the country is more economically prosperous than it ever has been in its history. The same can be said for most of Europe with one notable exception.

Speaking out – Vladimir Putin giving a speech in Red Square

Latent Nazism – The Revenge of History
Since Hitler no longer exists except in the pages of history, Europeans might be forgiven for feeling a sense of relief that they are finally done with him. At least that is what most of them thought. The ghosts of fascism continue to haunt Europe. This time in the form of a pale imitation of Hitler and Nazi Germany. Vladimir Putin and his regime do their best to emulate the types of excesses that have been rarely seen in Europe since the Third Reich vanished from the earth in 1945. Nazism was gone, but not forgotten by Europeans, in particular Germans. The memory of which helped them rebuild their state and society on a foundation of peace and prosperity. There are other darker memories of Hitler and the Third Reich’s legacy which have arisen since the war in Ukraine began. The unprovoked invasion of a sovereign nation’s territory brings back memories of Nazi Germany’s attack on Poland that kicked off World War II. Those who cared to look could have seen early warning signs. The occupation of Crimea in 2014 and military support for separatism in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine was eerily similar to Nazi Germany’s occupation and annexation of the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia. The doctrine of might makes right has returned to Europe as a challenge to the post-World War II rules-based order.

Is history repeating itself? That is the assumption when current events have striking similarities to historical ones. The international community has spent a great deal of time waiting for the next Hitler to rise. Has this finally happened in Russia? The irony would be nothing short of incredible. Russia, the main heir to the Soviet Union which did more than any other nation to defeat Nazi Germany, resurrects Hitlerian fascism in Europe. To a certain extent this has happened. In the case of Nazi Germany and Putin’s Russia there is more than coincidence at work. We are now almost ten months into Russia’s War in Ukraine or for those who prefer the longer view, eight years since war in the Donbas broke out and the Putin regime shows hallmarks of Nazi style fascism. There is a scarcely disguised dictatorship at home with free speech curbed, regime propaganda filling the airwaves, and night of the long knives purges of dissenting voices all too common.

Putinism on the march – Russian soldiers at military parade in Moscow

Differences of Opinion – Going to Extreme Lengths
To be sure there are major differences between Putin’s Russia and Hitler’s Nazi Germany. One of the most obvious is scale. This is most pronounced in military operations. The German Wehrmacht was massive with millions of soldiers under arms.  This force, along with innovative military doctrine and superior equipment, conquered most of Europe. The Wehrmacht won an unending succession of victories between 1939 and 1941 that brought it within a hair’s breadth of Moscow. There was a sense of inevitability and invincibility to its operations. Careful planning, thorough organization, and flawless execution were the attributes that carried it to success. The Russian military in Ukraine is the exact opposite. They are trying to fight a major war with a comparatively small-scale force that displays an appalling lack of professionalization. The Russian military’s greatest achievement thus far has been getting over 90,000 men killed in poorly planned and badly executed operations while losing an inordinate amount of military equipment. They have conquered territory that the Kremlin has then annexed, only to have a terrible time trying to hold on to it. Morale in the Russian forces is abysmal because they have no reason to be fighting in Ukraine.

This leads to another major difference between Hitler’s Nazi state and Putin’s regime, there is no unifying ideology that underpins the Putin regime. Unlike Naziism which offered its adherents a rationalization for everything they did, Putinism has nothing to offer other than ill-gotten gains through robbing the Russian state and Ukraine of whatever resources anyone can get their hands on. Putinism has elements of fascism, Nazism and communism. This makes ideologically incoherent and impossible to define. As such, those who adhere to Putinism have little to go on other than their own personal vices and criminal instincts. Hence the robberies, rapes, and murderous violence Russian forces are committing in Ukraine. The Nazis committed the same crimes on a much more massive scale, but underlying their behavior was a unifying ideology they were trying to impose upon the rest of Europe.

Blown away – Ultimate outcome of Putinism

Putinism – Incoherent Ideology
Putinism cannot be imposed on Ukraine because other than territorial aggrandizement and brazen criminality it has nothing to offer. It is just as hollow and soulless as its leader. Hitler was hollow and soulless as well, but he also stood at the pinnacle of an ideology that the German people believed in. It is doubtful if Putinism has that type of allure for Russians. That does not mean Putinism is benign. On the contrary, it has been a malignant force working against the interest of Russians and destroying parts of Ukraine. The same could happen to the rest of Europe. Putinism is a reminder that extreme ideologies such as Nazism never went away. They were just in a historical holding pattern, waiting for the right person, place, and time to rise again with dreadful consequences.

Click here for: Too Little, Too Late – Ukraine’s Air Defenses Vs. Russian Missile Attacks (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #265)

Nature of the Beast – The Kremlin’s Path To Defeat At Kherson (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #242)

On March 2^nd, Russian troops occupied the city of Kherson on western bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine. Back then it must have seemed so easy for them. Sure, the Battle of Kyiv was shaping up to be more difficult than assumed and there was resistance in other parts of Ukraine, but from the Kremlin’s point of view, Kherson showed that the expected was still bound to happen. Ukrainian resistance that had flared in the first week of the war was sure to fade. While Russian forces might not be initially welcomed, occupation forces would soon sort out the dissenters. Now with Kherson occupied after a mere eight days of war and tepid resistance, Russian nationalists were assuming their forces would surge further westward along Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline. The Russians would then take Odessa and restore that historic port city to its rightful place as part of Greater Russia. From there it would be on to Transnistria and Moldova, where Russia would take back what was once the Soviet Republic of Bessarabia.

Putin’s desire to reconstitute a neo-Russian Empire looked like a distinct possibility. That dream soon turned into a nightmare courtesy of the Ukrainian Army and western military assistance. Putin’s desire to make Russia great again ended up exposing the Potemkin nature of its military. As Ukrainian forces ferociously fought back, the Russian military turned out to be a paper tiger. The world’s supposed second most powerful military was plagued with poor leadership and rampant disorganization. This has led to a series of defeats, the latest of which may be the most damning of all to the Russia war effort. Kherson, where Russia first found success, has just been the setting for a devastating retreat. To understand why, look no further than to where the problem has been all along, Vladimir Putin and the decision-making apparatus in the Kremlin that enables him. 

Taking over – Ukrainians celebrate the liberation of Kherson

Casualties of War – The Failure to Comprehend
Two weeks ago, Vladimir Putin spoke at the Valdai Discussion Club, a Russian Think Tank closely aligned with his regime. As part of Putin’s involvement, he answered questions from a foreign policy analyst, Fyodor Lukyanov. The questions were more probing than the usual softballs thrown to Putin by Kremlin propaganda types. Lukyanov was brazen enough to ask, “Do you have the feeling, which, frankly, there is in society that the enemy was underestimated?” Putin’s answer was a predictable no. The fact that Lukyanov alluded to an opposing belief held by the Russian people, demonstrates that societal concerns have grown over the war’s conduct. The disconnect between the Putin regime’s propaganda regarding the “special military operation” in Ukraine and the truth that something has gone very wrong with the war has led to an unsettling feeling throughout Russian society.

Putin will not admit what has become obvious to the Russian people, that the Russian Army is losing badly in Ukraine. The possibility of defeat has gone from impossible to improbable to imminent. Like any persistent problem someone willfully ignores, the truth becomes apparent to everyone, but the person who refuses to acknowledge it. There is no doubt that Vladimir Putin underestimated Ukraine’s ability to resist a Russian invasion. Blame has been parceled out by the Kremlin on the FSB (Federal Security Service) which supposedly reported that Ukrainians would gladly accept the overthrow of their democratically elected government. Did Russian spooks really underestimate Ukrainian resistance, or did they tell the regime exactly what their leader wanted too here? It is likely that they amplified preexisting assumptions of the leadership.

Keeping a close eye on Putin – Nikolai Patrushev

Clausewitz In Reverse – A Less Than Grand Strategy
Putin spent the Covid-19 pandemic isolated from all but a small coterie of hardline advisors, cronies and sycophants. Their job has never been to challenge Putin’s beliefs, but to reinforce them. Above all else, Putin is said to value loyalty. Speaking truth to power is not a sign of loyalty in his regime. It is grounds for arrest, imprisonment or accidental death. This applies as much or more to the Kremlin elite as it does to anyone else involved in government or business in Russia. Those closest to Putin are there to do his bidding. They were chosen for their roles because they will carry out his policies and preferences with slavish devotion.

This does not mean that Putin’s closest advisors avoid trying to persuade him. On the contrary, several of them hold great influence over his decisions. For instance, Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of Russia is known to be highly respected by Putin. This did not stop Patrushev from being as wrong about Ukraine as his boss. Despite attempts to lay blame on the FSB for the disaster in Ukraine, everyone knows that the ultimate decision to invade came from the top. Furthermore, everyone knows that all the major decisions on conducting the war have also come from the Kremlin.

The famous Prussian strategist Carl Von Clausewitz famously said that war is the continuation of politics by other means. In a philosophical role reversal, the Putin regime’s politics is the continuation of war by other means. Cynicism, disinformation and subversiveness reign supreme. Or at least that was the case until the war in Ukraine confronted the Kremlin with an uncomfortable truth, the regime has overreached. Their limits were reached in Ukraine when the high tide of Putinism washed up on the western banks of the Dnipro River in Kherson. Eight months later that tide is receding. Unlike natural tides, this artificially created one is unlikely to return.

Moving forward – Raising the Ukrainian flag in Kherson

Self-Defeating – Losing Their Grip
Where does the Russian war effort go from here? That will be up to Putin and his small coterie of cronies in the Kremlin who got Russia into an increasingly untenable situation. Judging by the poor decisions they have made thus far, there is not much room for optimism. The wisest course of action would be for Russian forces to withdraw from Ukraine, but that would threaten Putin’s grip on power. Most likely, the Kremlin will decide to fight on because that is what Putin wants to do. The regime exists to keep Putin in power, everything is subverted to that goal. Ironically, all the decisions made by the Kremlin since February have served to undermine it. If Putin ever gets overthrown, he will only have himself and his most trusted advisers to blame because they made the decisions that led to their own defeat.

Click here for: Course Correction – From Kherson to Henichesk (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #242)

All Dressed Up With Nowhere To Go – Victory Day In Russia (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #71)

Vladimir Putin’s Victory Day address was not what most people expected it to be. He did not threaten nuclear Armageddon, transform his “Special Military Operation” to a war or call for nationwide conscription. There was a great deal of anticipation beforehand that he would widen the war. That did not happen, at least not yet. For a man who has given the world a series of nasty surprises over the past ten weeks, Putin had nothing new to offer. Instead, his address was consistent with those he has made at past Victory Day celebrations. There were no memorable policy pronouncements or vision for the future.

Instead. the usual enemies, Ukrainian Nazis, NATO, and the western world were now on Russia’s doorstep threatening it. They were preparing an attack on the Donbas and Crimea would not be far behind. NATO aggression was akin to that of Nazi Germany. Russia was involved in an existential war, a fight for the motherland. None of this was new. In the game of high stakes geopolitical poker Vladimir Putin was playing today, he decided not to show his hand. This may have been a wise move or perhaps the only move available to Putin at this juncture of the war. The Victory Day parade showcased a nation and its leader all dressed up with nowhere to go.

All dressed up with nowhere to go – Victory Day in Russia 2022

Repellent Attitudes – Fighting It Out
Vladimir Putin was said to have urged his military commanders to give him a victory by May 9^th. Victory Day has now come and gone, but he still doesn’t have one. Mariupol, a city of 460,000 inhabitants less than three months ago, has been nearly destroyed by Russian artillery. The city is nothing more than a mere shell of itself. While the Russians control its immediate area, they still have not managed to dislodge a large garrison of soldiers fighting in underground bunkers beneath the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works. At one point, Mariupol looked like it would provide Putin with a victory that he could sell to the Russian people to show that the war was worth it. There were even rumblings of a victory parade if the rubble strewn streets could be cleared in time. Russian soldiers were said to be offering locals bribes in the form of food to help make the city look somewhat presentable. All this came to naught.

We will never know why there was no victory parade in Mariupol, but it might have had something to do with showcasing the ruined hulk of a city that has cost the Russians a fortune in men and material. It will cost them even more if they try to hold onto it. That is because the future of what can rightly be termed as Putin’s War is murky at best. On the same day that Putin and Russia celebrated Victory Day, Ukrainian forces repelled five Russian attacks in the Donbas. Phase Two of Russia’s Special Military Operation is stalled out. Russian progress might best be described as going nowhere. The situation in the Donbas is becoming reminiscent of the Russian attempt earlier in the war to capture Kyiv. Promises of a major offensive were made, followed by failed assaults. The Russian Army was then forced to wait the situation out. This had an enervating effect upon their force’s readiness and morale.

Hollow words – Vladimir Putin delivers his Victory Day address

A Tyrannical Offer – War Without End
If anything, the Russian situation in the Donbas might be worse for them than the failed offensive against Kyiv. While the Ukrainians are on the defensive from a tactical standpoint, this also plays to their strengths in the region. They have managed to entrench themselves along a fortified line that looks more impregnable by the day. How the Russians will manage to breach these defenses is an open question for which they have yet to provide an answer. All the pronouncements by Putin will do nothing to rectify this situation. If anyone wants to know why the Victory Parade turned into a shallow exercise in demagoguery, they should look no further than Putin. He has nothing to offer the Russian people. Not a victory, not an honest explanation for the war, not a promise that the war will end soon.

In a strange bit of symmetry, Putin bearing empty gifts is one of the major reasons that Ukraine turned away from Russia during his time in power. Putinism is based upon conspicuous corruption, rapacious collection of resources for political/personal ends by an elite that only cares about themselves. The masses are left to pick up the scraps. Any complaints are met with an iron fist. Is it any wonder Ukraine turned their back on the enticements of Putinism? Just across their western border, Ukrainians can see the prosperity of Poland, a land where millions of them already live and work. Poland and the European Union offers a compelling vision of future prosperity. Russia offers tyranny. Ukrainians figured this out long ago. If Russians ever do, then Putin will become history. Hopefully that will happen before Putin unleashes more destruction on Europe. At this point, that does not look likely.

Potemkin parade – Victory Day in Russia 2022

Looking Back – Living In The Past
The difference between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Victory Day addresses was telling. Putin drew a direct line between the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany and the current conflict. He was invoking the past to raise hopes for the present. Zelensky said that Ukraine was fighting for a new victory. He was looking to the future with a vision for his nation. A stark contrast with Putin who is obsessed with the past and returning to the old territorial limits of the Russian Empire. Russia has become a prisoner to its own history, shackled to an ideal that it will never attain. In this respect, Russia reminds me of Hungary, a nation whose collective mentality is perpetually stuck in its imperial pre-World War I era. That quasi-mythical golden age no longer exists for a reason. That era was never as great as it has been made out to be. Empire always comes at someone else’s expense. Russia wants Ukraine to be sacrificed on the altar of its ambition. Instead, Russia may end up sacrificing itself. I doubt that would be cause for celebration.

Click here for: The Sequel – Snake Island: A Hapless Horror Story (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #72)

Turning In On Itself – Russia & Victory Day Scenarios (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #69)

Victory Day cannot come soon enough for Vladimir Putin. The Russian President badly needs another propaganda victory to boost the failing Russian war effort in Ukraine. Putin has raised Victory Day (when Russia celebrates the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II) into the pantheon of most important holidays in Russia. The day offers an unprecedented opportunity for Putin to whip the masses into a fury of nationalistic sentiment, claim that Ukraine is crawling with Nazis, and sell the conflict as an existential one that Russia must win as a matter of survival. Millions of Russians across the nation will listen to Putin’s address wondering what the future might hold for them.

The celebratory sentiment of Victory Day also has Ukraine on edge. President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned Ukrainians that the Russians could use it to widen strikes in the country. Putin might order more indiscriminate bombing to provide a distraction from the truth about a war for which he is chiefly to blame. It is hard to know what the average Russian really thinks about the war, but many are likely worried. Polls show broad support. Of course, it is easy to support something that does not require personal involvement. For Russians of all socio-economic and ethnic backgrounds that could be ending soon. Putin might use Victory Day to further escalate the conflict. In a twisted irony, this would affect Russians as much as Ukrainians.

Total war – Russian mobile nuclear missile at Victory Day Parade in Moscow

Martial Arts – Personalizing The War
Putinologists are those geopolitical analysts who specialize in studying the behavior of Vladimir Putin. Lately they have fallen over themselves trying to predict what Putin might announce on Victory Day or have his military do in its immediate aftermath. There are a wide range of possibilities worth considering since no one can say for sure exactly what Putin will do next when it comes to the war. Of the hypothetical scenarios being considered, all of them will have a dramatic effect upon the average Russian citizen in ways they cannot possibly understand at this time. Take for instance one of the most talked about scenarios where Putin decides to transform the “Special Military Operation” into a full-scale war.

Transforming the conflict to a war would allow Putin to declare martial law and draft more conscripts into the army to boost the number of soldiers. Obviously, anyone who might be drafted for military duty has cause for concern, as should their families who would see loved ones forced to fight in the war. Conscription in the Russian army is a byword for the recruitment of cannon fodder. The number of soldiers fighting in Ukraine would increase, but that would not occur for several months. The callup could lead to social unrest as citizens who previously offered their blind support for the war would suddenly be confronted by its reality in a very personal manner. If Russia’s best professional soldiers cannot defeat the Ukrainian Army, then what chance would conscripts have. The answer is not much.

Another scenario has Russia invading Moldova by using troops it has stationed in the breakaway statelet of Transnistria. Separatist forces dedicated to promoting Russian interests would also play a crucial role. This would widen the war, expanding the conflict into another arena, one bordering Romania which is a NATO member. Doing this would invite more sanctions on Russia and lead to NATO getting more involved in the war. While this option would allow Putin to cause more disruption, it would stretch Russian resources razor thin at a time when they are making little to no progress in Ukraine. The Russian economy would have to become more militarized to keep two conflicts going at the same time. The living standards of Russian citizens would be subsumed to a war economy. The middle class in cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg would struggle to avoid the war’s effects on their financial situation.

Looking ahead – Vladimir Putin

Costly Options – Worrisome Scenarios
A more plausible scenario would be for Putin to annex part of the Donbas region that Russia already occupies. This would officially make parts of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts Russian territory. They would become part of Russia, just as Crimea did in Putin’s first land grab back in 2014. The problem is that Crimea has turned into another financial drain for Russia. When it was part of Ukraine, Crimea had the lowest GDP per capita in the nation. Russia now pours money into it. While Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts have major economic potential due to resource extraction, getting the economy in these areas headed in the right direction would be a tough task, one that an economically weakened Russia would struggle to support.

Of course, the most worrisome scenario would be for Putin to escalate the war by first showing off Russia’s nuclear arsenal on Victory Day and then directing the use of tactical nuclear weapon(s) to freeze the conflict in Ukraine. Such a move would have terrible consequences for everyone involved at all levels of the war. Russia would instantly become a pariah state, subject to the harshest sanctions possible. It might also suffer military retaliation on its territory. This pseudo-doomsday scenario is one to be avoided at all costs, but Putin has shown a proclivity for high-risk behavior. The Russian people would suffer the worst if such a scenario occurred. The economy would likely go into freefall, the political system would become extremely toxic. The upshot would be that Russia would find itself isolated for years to come. 

Headed for trouble – Russian forces in Ukraine

The Enemy Within – The Pitfalls of Putinism
Whatever options Putin chooses to pursue after Victory Day none of them are good, especially for the Russian people. They should beware of their own leader more than Ukrainians. What they fear has everything to do with Putin’s prosecution of the war in Ukraine and nothing to do with Ukrainians. There will be no Ukrainian invasion or infiltration of Russia, despite Putin promoting the idea that Ukraine is Russia’s greatest threat. The real threat to Russia is Putin. He has ensured Russia’s isolation. Its western flank is now surrounded by nations either in NATO, will soon join it or who are aligned with its values (except for Belarus which has never been weaker). Russia’s economy is creaking along and will continue to ossify. Its political system is inflexible. Russia’s reliance on an unpredictable dictator who puts his own interests above that of the nation is leading it towards ever greater disasters. There is no telling what Putin might choose to do on Victory Day, but it is certain that his choices will continue to harm Russia. The paradox of Putin continues unabated.

Click here for: Bearing Witness – Life & Death North of Kyiv (The Russian Invasion of Kyiv #70)

Liar’s Logic – Putin & the Fallacy of Denazification in Ukraine (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #65)

The greatest question mark of the Ukraine-Russia War continues to be the behavior of Vladimir Putin. Putin is central to every aspect of the war, from Russia’s military performance to war crimes to the continuing prosecution of the conflict. There is good reason why the conflict is referred to by many as Putin’s War. It was Putin’s decision to start the war and it could be his decision on when or whether it ends. There is an entire cottage industry of Putinologists and Kremlinologists, whose jobs are to try and predict one of the most shadowy figures in world politics. They examine Putin’s body language, his speeches, the people around him, travel patterns and any other behaviors from which his plans might be discerned. Despite or more likely because of this, no one is any closer to figuring out what Putin will do next regarding the war. Because the Russian Army has underperformed so badly, Putin’s objectives should have changed drastically. Besides refocusing on the Donbas, many believe he is still holding out in the delusional hope that victory will eventually be achieved, albeit at a much greater cost than he ever expected.

Putin’s worst nightmare – Maidan Square in Kyiv during the 2014 Revolution of Dignity

Suspending Disbelief – The Degeneracy of Denazification  
It is not just that western military analysts are having difficulty interpreting Putin’s behavior, the same is almost certainly true for his own side. Putin has isolated himself from all but a few trusted insiders. His paranoia has always been a problem, but now it seems to have become the defining trait of his governing style. Putin’s public performances are highly scripted with handpicked people surrounding him. This not only skews reality for the Russian public, but also skews it for a leader who seems to have lost touch with reality. Putin is caught in an echo chamber where he only hears his own voice or the voice of “advisers” who amplify his beliefs. One of the most ridiculed public pronouncements Putin has made concerning the war is his stated goal that the “Special Military Operation” will “de-nazify” Ukraine. The idea seemed so ludicrous that when the war started, it was viewed with incredulity. The scary thing is that Putin and his cronies might believe it.

It is a striking example of just how far Russian political and public discourse has degenerated under Putin’s paranoiac rule that “denazification” can be stated as sufficient reason to invade Ukraine. For Russians to believe that a non-nuclear power with a much smaller military and its own set of problems threatens Russia is hard to fathom. This obscured Putin’s real fear. What Ukraine really threatened was a political and economic model that might offer a preferable alternative to Putin’s conspicuous corruption form of governance. Such an alternative offered an existential threat that might lead to an uprising. It was possibility rather than probability that Putin feared. He did have cause for concern. Since the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, Ukraine has developed an increasingly strong civil society. While anti-corruption measures had stalled in recent years, lively debate and political activism were encouraging signs of democracy. The Ukrainians had also developed a great deal of self-confidence that they could hold their leaders accountable.

Dubious intent – Vladimir Putin

One For All  – Committing To The Struggle
In Vladimir Putin’s mind, Ukraine represented a clear and present danger, an existential threat that he was not willing to tolerate. According to him, Ukrainians were a people being led in the wrong direction by a fascist government. Putin set out to have the Russian military provide a course correction on a destructive scale not seen since World War II. To those of us who believe in logic and rationality, it is glaringly obvious that Putin invented a pretext for invading Ukraine. Could there be anything more absurd than denazification of a nation that had a Jewish president? Putin claimed that Ukrainian Nazis were committing genocide against ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine. The more of these claims he made in the lead up to the war, the less seriously anyone seemed to take them. Then he backed up his words with action by ordering Russian forces to invade Ukraine. The situation turned deadly serious, but Putin has showed no signs of mitigating his claims even after they were confronted by a much different reality. There were no Ukrainian Nazis, just Ukrainian patriots, forty plus million of them. What to do? For Putin there was only one answer, continue the war.

Ukraine is a festering wound that Putin cannot rid himself of. His preferred cure looks likely to kill the patient, which turns out to be himself and the regime he has constructed in Russia. Ironically, the only way he could possibly diagnose the problem is by looking in the mirror. It is almost as though he has a death wish. The worse the war gets the more Putin commits to the struggle. The sheer elusiveness of victory acts as a seductive allure drawing him, and by extension Russia, onward to the breaking point. Ukraine may well be the death of Putin. That is as mind boggling an idea, as his decision to invade Ukraine in the first place. Why would Putin ever let it come to this? Is it because he has gone mad? That is what we would like to think because his behavior seems less and less rational. Putin’s management of Russia’s war in Ukraine is the triumph of emotion over reason. Then again, there could also be a logical reason behind his behavior.

Freedom from fear – Ukrainian flags at a protest

Echo Chambers – A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
Putin may really believe his lies. He has said them so many times and for so long that is all he knows. The courtiers who surround him have echoed these views. His own intelligence apparatus knows what their leader wants to hear and feeds it to him. Putin needs to believe Ukraine is filled with Nazis. From his perspective it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Why else would the Ukrainians resist so long and hard? Surely someone else must be controlling them, an unnatural force is at work there. Whether or not this is true is beside the point. If Putin believes it, then it must be true. And he will do everything in his power to make it true. Thus, the war continues against all reasonable logic. Putin and the Russian forces in Ukraine will search in vain to find Nazis. Instead, they are much more likely to find defeat.

Click here for: The Lost Legacy – Ukraine Beyond Russian & Soviet Influence (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #66)