To Be or Not To Be – The German Question & War In Ukraine #2 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #293)

Will Germany play a larger military role in Europe? To be or not to be, that is the German Question. If so, then the Ukraine-Russia War offers an unprecedented opportunity and one that is necessary. There is no better time for Germany to begin providing not just some, but all the military support Ukraine needs to hold off an expected Russian offensive either in the later winter or spring. The support, along with that of other western allies, would allow the Ukrainian Army to go on the offensive in a bid to take more of its territory back. If Germany chooses to limit its support, then Ukraine will struggle to win an outright victory in the war. They may even have trouble holding off the next Russian offensive.

The German question comes down to what 21^st century Germany want to be. Either a power that protects the post-World War II rules-based international order from which it has greatly benefitted or risk losing military and moral authority in Europe as the Russian military runs further amuck, threatening European security. The answer to whether Germany plays a larger military role would seem to be a positive since they can help preserve European security for decades to come. What could be better than that? Certainly not the unknown which might result from limiting military support to Ukraine. The Germans are in a classic pay me now or pay me later situation. Help defeat Russia now or risk a much larger war when and if the Kremlin tests NATO’s resolve by attacking a member state in Eastern Europe. The choice between the two extremes is stark, but German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is still undecided.

Free the Leopards – Protest in Berlin

Zeitenwende – The Not So Historic Turning Point
For a people who are known for their love of stability, it is strange how the Germans are risking that by limiting military support for Ukraine. German policy since the Second World War has been risk averse. The country’s prosperity and stability has been predicated upon the existing European order. Germany has grown into an economic power within that framework. Militarily, the story has been different. Germany has been able to lay low while others in NATO and the European Union do the heavy lifting. Fear of militarism is pervasive throughout German society. Any decision that supports military action sends a shiver down the spines of many Germans. One such decision would be a greater military buildup to boost its security. In that regard, Scholz announced the Zeitenwende (historic turning point) three days after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. The upshot was that 100 billion Euros would go to increase spending on the German military.

This change in policy was widely applauded by Germany’s allies. Scholz has also allowed more military support for Ukraine. The latest of which was the promise of German Marder infantry fighting vehicles that the Ukrainian Army will use in a future offensive. So far, so good, but as the war continues to escalate this support will not be enough. Ukraine needs the most effective weapons possible. One of those is the German Leopard tank, a formidable fighting machine that could help turn the tide of battle in favor of Ukrainian forces. This is the type of game changing weapon Ukraine needs now more than ever. Unfortunately, the Germans are still unwilling to provide these despite pressure from their allies. The situation could not be more critical since a Russian offensive is expected to begin soon. Ukraine needs all the firepower it can get.

A special relationship – Vladimir Putin & Olaf Scholz meeting in February 2022

Leashing The Leopards – From Fissures to Cracks
What is holding Germany back from providing Ukraine with Leopard tanks? According to Scholz, he will be more than glad to send Leopards after the Americans begin sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. The Americans believe Scholz is using the Abrams as a convenient excuse. The Abrams is a notorious gas guzzler that is difficult to support logistically and requires more training. Some say the Americans are being disingenuous, that they could easily choose to send Abrams. Meanwhile, Scholz continues to dither. After several weeks of negotiations with allies, it was expected that Germany would announce they were either sending Leopards to Ukraine or allowing fellow NATO member states to do the same. Because Germany donated Leopards to European allies in exchange for them sending their own T-72 tanks to Ukraine, legally Germany must approve for them to send Leopards to Ukraine. This approval was expected to be announced when western military leaders met at Ramstein Air Force Base in western Germany last week. While a large package of weapons for Ukraine was announced, there was no mention of providing Leopards. This was a major setback. Reports appeared in the media that fissures in the western alliance were widening into cracks.

There is nothing standing in the way of Germany providing Leopard tanks or allowing other allies to do the same except for Olaf Scholz. There are many theories as to why Scholz continues to stick stubbornly to a position that looks more foolish and untenable by the day. One theory is that he hopes to still be able to preserve Germany’s “special relationship” with Russia. This line of thinking is hard to fathom. Trust between Russia and the rest of Europe is at its lowest point since the days of Stalin. It will not recover anytime soon and will likely take a generation or more to improve, if it ever does at all. Scholz seems unable to comprehend the vast changes that have occurred, even when he has been the one at times having to implement those changes. Specifically in Germany’s military posture.

Striking a pose – Olaf Scholz anti-militarist

Unanswered Question – Silence From Scholz
The other theory is that Scholz does not want to be the one who makes the decision that leads to German tanks fighting against Russian ones. This would be the first such instance of that since World War II. It is the memory of that catastrophe which still manages to have a hold on the psyche of many Germans. The pacifist instinct which has been pervasive in post-World War II Germany is still alive and well. The fear of being involved in another war has kept Germany from a military build up for far too long. It has also led to the latest iteration of the German question. Will Germany play a larger military role in Europe? To be or not to be, Scholz refuses to answer that question.

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Teutonic Shifts – The German Question & War In Ukraine #1 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #292)

The German question. Those three words express an idea that has dominated European political, economic and military affairs for centuries. The German question has meant different things at different times in European history. It has been central to war and peace, prosperity or penury in Europe. Definitions of the German question have been highly dependent on historical circumstances. In the mid-19^th century, the question concerned German unification. Following World War I, the question concerned the potential incorporation of Austria into a Greater Germany. The question has ranged across a wide variety of political entities including empires, nation-states, kingdoms, and any other fiefs dominated by ethnic Germans.

The German influence has been so vast in Europe, that it is hard to overstate its influence. For instance, most of the royal families in Europe were German in origin. Few now remember that the House of Windsor, England’s ruling family, used to be known as the House of Anhalt-Saxe-Coburg. The name change occurred due to World War One. German minorities played influential roles in Eastern European regions such as the Swabians in Hungary and the Baltic Germans in Estonia and Latvia. No matter the political and economic circumstances, Germans were often at the top of the pecking order. They have an incredible talent for finding themselves at the center of European history. The German question comes right along with them.

Searching for answers – Olaf Scholz

Power Plays – Military Might & Economic Heft
For the rest of Europe, the German question has often been how to contain Teutonic power or to control, harness, and manage it for their own benefit or survival, usually the latter. The German question continues to dominate Europe today. The question’s relevance for the first two decades of the 21st century was based on the outsized growth of German economic power compared to any other nation on the continent. The German economy has grown much larger and stronger than that of France, home to the second largest economy on the European mainland. As German economic might expanded, this meant Germany’s economic preferences, such as an emphasis on fiscal rectitude and austerity for the Eurozone became policy. This has led to resentment from other nations who feel that Germans consider their interest above all others. That they have traded military might for economic heft. The truth is that Germany has long been a mighty economic power. The difference now is that militarily, it ranks very low in Europe. Due to the Ukraine-Russia War, that may or may not be changing soon.

The German question as it exists in the 21^st century has shifted from economic to military affairs because of the war in Ukraine. This is a head spinning change, one that many Germans are finding difficult to comprehend. Everything in modern Germany since 1945 has been predicated upon anti-militarism. Efforts by the western world were focused on providing military protection for Germany, instead of the Germans providing it for themselves. This made sense following the cataclysm of the Second World War, European nations and especially the United States did everything possible to ensure that German military power was kept in check. Memories of the German Wehrmacht conquering virtually all of western, central, and eastern Europe, along with the atrocities committed in the name of Nazism, meant that everything possible was done to ensure that there would be no resurgence of German militarism.

Unification – First German National assembly at St. Paul’s Church in Frankfurt 1848-49

Pacifist Potential – Cold War
To that end, American military bases were placed throughout West Germany. In East Germany, the Red Army did the same thing. These long-term occupation forces were stand-ins for the German military. Of course, the Americans and Soviets were also fighting the Cold War with the German Question at its epicenter. Both sides believed that whoever controlled Germany would also control the rest of Europe and become the world’s premier geopolitical power. It is not a coincidence that the defining struggle of the 20^th century between democratic capitalism and communist totalitarianism took place in Germany. It was then, as it still is today, the place where much of Europe’s future would be decided.

When the Berlin Wall fell and the Iron Curtain collapsed, worries spread anew that a reunified Germany would rise again as a military power. Instead, pacifism had taken hold in Germany during the Cold War. Germany reunified as a neutral nation with a special historical mission to never repeat the militarism that led it into two World Wars. Such was the German aversion to all things military that it consistently failed to meet the required NATO minimum to spend 2% of annual GDP on defense. This became a point of contention between Germany and other NATO member states, in particular the United States which footed the bill – and still does – for a large portion of German defense. Prodding a nation that saw itself as a model of modern European pacifism only went so far. The Germans continued to drag their feet. Then the Russian full scale of invasion of Ukraine occurred on February 24, 2022.

Power struggle – US Army tanks face Soviet armor at Checkpoint Charlie in Berlin October 1961 (Credit: USAMHI)

Making Amends – A Moral Duty
To get an idea of how much the Ukraine-Russia War transformed Germany’s relationship with military spending, consider that after the war began Germany’s initial offer of military support was a grand total of 5,000 helmets. This was insulting, tone-deaf, and foolish. The German chancellor Olaf Scholz was new to his job. He looked more like a puzzled amateur than seasoned leader. His coalition government is center-left and prefers pacifism. Scholz’s own party, the Social Democrats, have long cultivated ties with Russia. During the Cold War, the SPD was filled with skeptics of American military might. Its leanings tended toward accommodation with East Germany. Post-Cold War, Chancellor Gerhard Schroder of the SPD made himself Vladimir Putin’s best friend.

As distasteful as Schroder’s affinity for the Kremlin may seem, he is just the most recognizable example of a trend that has been going on for decades. It was not only Russia’s supply of natural gas to German industry that tied the two nations together, it was also German guilt for the invasion of the Soviet Union during World War II. Germany has tried to make amends as a moral duty. The war brought all this into question. And raised the newest form of the German Question. One, that this past week arose again. Specifically, whether Germany will play a military role once again? The war in Ukraine is providing an inconclusive answer.

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