Future Uncertain – The Unpredictable Ukraine-Russia War in 2023 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #295)

Someday this war will be over, but it will not be anytime soon. The victories and defeats that each side has suffered thus far has failed to bring the conflict anywhere closer to a conclusion. If anything, these respective successes and failures have only ensured the war will continue indefinitely. The coming months could prove to be more decisive than anything that has happened during the war’s first ten and a half months. It would be foolhardy to predict what will happen next. Predictions are predicated upon past performance. Judging by that, this war will be long and unpredictable, just as it has been so far. That may seem obvious, but there have been few obvious things about the Ukraine-Russia War. Like all wars it tends to have a logic all its own. Outside observers, can scarcely understand this logic. More confounding is the likelihood that those on the frontlines may not conceive of the logic that governs their actions. The only thing certain, is this war’s future is uncertain.

Future uncertain – Ukrainian man walks in front of buildings damaged by Russian shelling

Obstacles & Objectives – Putting Up A Good Front
It is understandable that anyone looking to predict the war’s future will look back at what has already occurred. If we go by past performance in the Ukraine-Russia War here is what should happen. Russian forces will continue to lose men and ground. They will lose the latter at a slower rate than before. This is not because they are fighting any better than before, but because they are bringing hundreds of thousands of more men to the battlefront. Even the worse trained, poorly armed, badly fed, undersupplied, and frightened Russian soldier who would rather be anywhere other than Ukraine will be a formidable obstacle. When a Russian soldier is fighting for his life, his livelihood, his chance to make it back home alive, then there is little doubt that he will present a barrier to Ukrainian forces recapturing their territory. That does not mean several hundred thousand soldiers will succeed in any kind of decisive victory. It just means that they will slow the Ukrainians down.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians will make further territorial gains. These will be more like the ones they made in Kherson Province rather than Kharkiv Province. Breakthroughs will occur, but the Russians will throw tens of thousands of men at the Ukrainian forces to slow their advances. The Ukrainians will still destroy large amounts of Russian men and material. They will be the aggressor in most battles and viewed as “winning” the war, but “winning” is not “won”. A decisive defeat of Russian forces will continue to prove elusive. The war will grind on through the spring, summer, and fall. At that point both sides will lick their wounds, assess their respective strengths, and decide whether to negotiate. Neither will have achieved their ultimate objectives. The Russians, because they still have not decided their objectives. The Ukrainians, because they have not taken all their territory back, including that which the Russians captured after their full-scale invasion. Ukraine will be in a better position than they were when campaigning began during the dead of winter in 2023, but this will not be good enough to claim victory. Keep in mind that this is what should happen, it is almost certainly not what will happen.

Before the war – Mariupol Theater at Christmas in 2021

Then & Now – Role Reversals
The greatest argument for the Ukraine-Russia War’s unpredictable future is the past ten and a half months. Consider how so many of the truths now seen as self-evident would have been considered improbable, if not impossible prior to the war. A then and now comparison bears out this transformation. Then: The Russian military is the second most powerful in the world. Ukraine does not stand a chance against them in a war. Now: The Russian military is a disorganized disaster plagued with incompetence and corruption. Ukraine is winning the war. Then: Russia will capture Kyiv and install a pro-Russian puppet government. The Zelensky government will go into exile. Now: Russia not only failed to capture Kyiv, but they have no chance of capturing it in this war. Kyiv is the epicenter of Ukrainian nationhood and will continue to be long after the war is over.

Then: Vladimir Putin is a master strategist who has strengthened Russia into a great power once again. Now: Vladimir Putin presides over a degenerate regime that has weakened Russia irreparably. It is a second-rate power with a bleak future at home and abroad. Then: If the west supports Ukraine with state of art the weapons system Russia will attack NATO member states. Now: The west is continuing to increase military support to Ukraine with everything from Patriot missile defense systems to armored personnel vehicles. Russia can barely hold off the Ukrainian Army. They will not attack a NATO member state because that would lead to an even greater disaster. Then: Genocide, ethnic cleansing, and targeting civilians is a thing of the past in Europe. Now: Genocide, ethnic cleansing, and targeting civilians is part of Russian military strategy in Ukraine. Then: Ukraine will be forced by its western allies into a negotiated peace. Now: Ukraine will decide when negotiations with Russia will begin. The western allies offer continued support for this stance.

War changes everything – Mariupol Theater after Russian siege

Tracking Changes – Never The Same
Those are just an arbitrary list of how much has changed in less than a year of war. The war has disabused military strategists and geopolitical analysts of long held assumptions about Russian military strength and Ukrainian political military weakness. The same can be said concerning the effectiveness of Russian autocracy versus Ukrainian democracy. If someone on February 23, 2022, questioned the Thens given above and professed a belief in the Nows, they would have been called crazy or ignored as a foolish provocateur. The difference between the Thens and Nows proves the truth behind that old cliche that war changes everything. War is provocative and unpredictable. Out of chaos comes clarity. The world as it existed in Europe, Russia, and much of the west prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been upended. It will never be the same. The question is what kind of world will arise to replace it. No one really knows. In 2023, we may find out or we may be right back to where we started this year by wondering what the future will bring.

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A Conventional War – Ukraine/NATO & Russia Finally Face Off (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #294)

The European theater during World War II was really two different wars. On the Eastern Front, casualties reached levels unprecedented in human history. The most terrifying example of this were losses by the Soviet Union, which reached an estimated 25 million people. That is more than the combined total of all other combatants in the war. Another stunning statistic is that 80% of all German casualties in the war occurred on the Eastern Front. The battles were fights literally to the finish. The hatred engendered by the warring ideologies of fascism and communism infused the fighting with a merciless fury. The Nazi doctrine of racial superiority over Jews and Slavs added another lethal element to the fighting. The result was a war defined in the starkest terms possible. There was only conquest or complete subjugation, if not destruction. The Red Army went through the equivalent of two entire armies by throwing great masses of men at the Germans. This turned every battle into a war of attrition. An insidious numbers game ensued. This favored the Soviets who had much more men and material (with crucial assistance from the Allies).  

Meanwhile in western and southern Europe, Allied forces (Americans, British and French) fought battles relying on their superiority in armaments and equipment. They incurred hundreds of thousands of casualties, but nowhere near the level of those suffered by the Red Army or German forces on the Eastern front. The western Allies also massed great numbers of men (particularly America). Nevertheless, they leaned more heavily on technology than brute force. To be sure, both the Soviets and western Allies used many of the same methods, but for the most part, the Soviets were more reliant on great masses of men, while the western Allies on technology. Incredibly, very little has changed. Seventy-seven years after World War II ended, the same stylistic impulses are getting ready to face each other on the battlefield. The warring sides may be different, but their tactics are much the same as before. The Russians are stand-ins for the Soviets, the Ukrainians for the western Allies.

Conventional war – Aerial view of Bakhmut

Contrasting Forces – The Fight For Supremacy
Despite efforts at modernization and attempts to integrate digital technology, the Russian military has largely inherited its tactics from the Red Army. The past eleven months of war in Ukraine has offered copious evidence that the Russians still prefer massing men and artillery to overwhelm any opposition. The doctrine of brute force lives on in the 21^st century Russian Army. The longer the war has lasted, the more Russian tactics revert to those of the Red Army. As Russia has shown less technological proficiency than imagined, their reliance on vast reserves of manpower is increasing. This was the impetus for their “partial mobilization” in the autumn. The Russians are thought to be on the verge of an even larger round of conscription to put greater masses of men on the battlefield.

For their part, the Ukrainians are supported by the technologically superior military might of NATO and European Union member states. They will continue to wage the war with sound tactics, combining them with first class weaponry and military equipment. Their goal is to minimize casualties while probing for weak points in the Russian lines. Stealth strikes done with maximum efficiency can lead to breakthroughs. They have made greater gains on the battlefield than the Russians over the last six months by outsmarting them tactically and relying on precision weaponry. This is 21^st century warfare as taught to them by experience and with the assistance of NATO instructors that arrived to train Ukrainian forces after war in the Donbas began in 2014. For the smaller Ukrainian Army these are essential. They cannot afford to lose massive amounts of manpower for minimal gains.

On the road to Bakhmut – Bomb craters (Credit: Maxar Technologies)

Clash of the Titans – A War That Was Never Fought
The clash of differing philosophies between Ukraine/NATO and Russian/Soviet inspired doctrines has been a long time in the making. This could lead to some of the largest battles the world has seen since 1945. This clash was supposed to happen during the Cold War, but thankfully it never did. The great western worry back then was that the Soviets would launch a massive offensive in central Europe. This would threaten to overrun western Germany and then other European allies before American and British force could mobilize a commensurate response to slow the Soviet momentum. The worry was that the Red Army would already be in Bonn, Brussels, and Paris before a major defensive effort could be mounted. Fortunately, this Third World War scenario never occurred.

The fear of escalation kept both sides from engaging in a conventional conflict because it could have led to cataclysmic consequences. That fear has largely subsided. The battle lines between Russian and western style warfare are now drawn much further east than either would have ever imagined. No longer are the opposing sides within spitting distance in Berlin. Now they are a stone’s throw from one another in the Donbas and southern Ukraine. Each side is preparing for the type of large conventional battles that they managed to avoid from 1945 – 1989. The Cold War ended with a whimper, but the Ukraine-Russia War is proving to be different. In the coming months, it will only become more so as the opposing armies conduct offensives.

The fog of war – Scene from Bakhmut

Decisive & Dreadful – Men Versus Machines
Just because Ukraine, rather than NATO, is directly fighting Russia does not mean it will be any less of a showdown. In the past couple of weeks, the west has been increasing donations of lethal weaponry that could make a difference on the battlefield. For instance, infantry fighting vehicles and tanks from the Americans, Germans, British. Poles and many other countries. There is sure to be much more to come. This promises to tilt military technology further in Ukraine’s favor. Meanwhile, the Russians will have little choice but to rely on manpower for the bulk of their military efforts. Masses of men will face off against machines. The contrast in tactics between the two sides is stark. The past and future finally meet on the field of battle in Europe. It has been a long time coming. The consequences will be decisive and dreadful.  

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To Be or Not To Be – The German Question & War In Ukraine #2 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #293)

Will Germany play a larger military role in Europe? To be or not to be, that is the German Question. If so, then the Ukraine-Russia War offers an unprecedented opportunity and one that is necessary. There is no better time for Germany to begin providing not just some, but all the military support Ukraine needs to hold off an expected Russian offensive either in the later winter or spring. The support, along with that of other western allies, would allow the Ukrainian Army to go on the offensive in a bid to take more of its territory back. If Germany chooses to limit its support, then Ukraine will struggle to win an outright victory in the war. They may even have trouble holding off the next Russian offensive.

The German question comes down to what 21^st century Germany want to be. Either a power that protects the post-World War II rules-based international order from which it has greatly benefitted or risk losing military and moral authority in Europe as the Russian military runs further amuck, threatening European security. The answer to whether Germany plays a larger military role would seem to be a positive since they can help preserve European security for decades to come. What could be better than that? Certainly not the unknown which might result from limiting military support to Ukraine. The Germans are in a classic pay me now or pay me later situation. Help defeat Russia now or risk a much larger war when and if the Kremlin tests NATO’s resolve by attacking a member state in Eastern Europe. The choice between the two extremes is stark, but German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is still undecided.

Free the Leopards – Protest in Berlin

Zeitenwende – The Not So Historic Turning Point
For a people who are known for their love of stability, it is strange how the Germans are risking that by limiting military support for Ukraine. German policy since the Second World War has been risk averse. The country’s prosperity and stability has been predicated upon the existing European order. Germany has grown into an economic power within that framework. Militarily, the story has been different. Germany has been able to lay low while others in NATO and the European Union do the heavy lifting. Fear of militarism is pervasive throughout German society. Any decision that supports military action sends a shiver down the spines of many Germans. One such decision would be a greater military buildup to boost its security. In that regard, Scholz announced the Zeitenwende (historic turning point) three days after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. The upshot was that 100 billion Euros would go to increase spending on the German military.

This change in policy was widely applauded by Germany’s allies. Scholz has also allowed more military support for Ukraine. The latest of which was the promise of German Marder infantry fighting vehicles that the Ukrainian Army will use in a future offensive. So far, so good, but as the war continues to escalate this support will not be enough. Ukraine needs the most effective weapons possible. One of those is the German Leopard tank, a formidable fighting machine that could help turn the tide of battle in favor of Ukrainian forces. This is the type of game changing weapon Ukraine needs now more than ever. Unfortunately, the Germans are still unwilling to provide these despite pressure from their allies. The situation could not be more critical since a Russian offensive is expected to begin soon. Ukraine needs all the firepower it can get.

A special relationship – Vladimir Putin & Olaf Scholz meeting in February 2022

Leashing The Leopards – From Fissures to Cracks
What is holding Germany back from providing Ukraine with Leopard tanks? According to Scholz, he will be more than glad to send Leopards after the Americans begin sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. The Americans believe Scholz is using the Abrams as a convenient excuse. The Abrams is a notorious gas guzzler that is difficult to support logistically and requires more training. Some say the Americans are being disingenuous, that they could easily choose to send Abrams. Meanwhile, Scholz continues to dither. After several weeks of negotiations with allies, it was expected that Germany would announce they were either sending Leopards to Ukraine or allowing fellow NATO member states to do the same. Because Germany donated Leopards to European allies in exchange for them sending their own T-72 tanks to Ukraine, legally Germany must approve for them to send Leopards to Ukraine. This approval was expected to be announced when western military leaders met at Ramstein Air Force Base in western Germany last week. While a large package of weapons for Ukraine was announced, there was no mention of providing Leopards. This was a major setback. Reports appeared in the media that fissures in the western alliance were widening into cracks.

There is nothing standing in the way of Germany providing Leopard tanks or allowing other allies to do the same except for Olaf Scholz. There are many theories as to why Scholz continues to stick stubbornly to a position that looks more foolish and untenable by the day. One theory is that he hopes to still be able to preserve Germany’s “special relationship” with Russia. This line of thinking is hard to fathom. Trust between Russia and the rest of Europe is at its lowest point since the days of Stalin. It will not recover anytime soon and will likely take a generation or more to improve, if it ever does at all. Scholz seems unable to comprehend the vast changes that have occurred, even when he has been the one at times having to implement those changes. Specifically in Germany’s military posture.

Striking a pose – Olaf Scholz anti-militarist

Unanswered Question – Silence From Scholz
The other theory is that Scholz does not want to be the one who makes the decision that leads to German tanks fighting against Russian ones. This would be the first such instance of that since World War II. It is the memory of that catastrophe which still manages to have a hold on the psyche of many Germans. The pacifist instinct which has been pervasive in post-World War II Germany is still alive and well. The fear of being involved in another war has kept Germany from a military build up for far too long. It has also led to the latest iteration of the German question. Will Germany play a larger military role in Europe? To be or not to be, Scholz refuses to answer that question.

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Teutonic Shifts – The German Question & War In Ukraine #1 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #292)

The German question. Those three words express an idea that has dominated European political, economic and military affairs for centuries. The German question has meant different things at different times in European history. It has been central to war and peace, prosperity or penury in Europe. Definitions of the German question have been highly dependent on historical circumstances. In the mid-19^th century, the question concerned German unification. Following World War I, the question concerned the potential incorporation of Austria into a Greater Germany. The question has ranged across a wide variety of political entities including empires, nation-states, kingdoms, and any other fiefs dominated by ethnic Germans.

The German influence has been so vast in Europe, that it is hard to overstate its influence. For instance, most of the royal families in Europe were German in origin. Few now remember that the House of Windsor, England’s ruling family, used to be known as the House of Anhalt-Saxe-Coburg. The name change occurred due to World War One. German minorities played influential roles in Eastern European regions such as the Swabians in Hungary and the Baltic Germans in Estonia and Latvia. No matter the political and economic circumstances, Germans were often at the top of the pecking order. They have an incredible talent for finding themselves at the center of European history. The German question comes right along with them.

Searching for answers – Olaf Scholz

Power Plays – Military Might & Economic Heft
For the rest of Europe, the German question has often been how to contain Teutonic power or to control, harness, and manage it for their own benefit or survival, usually the latter. The German question continues to dominate Europe today. The question’s relevance for the first two decades of the 21st century was based on the outsized growth of German economic power compared to any other nation on the continent. The German economy has grown much larger and stronger than that of France, home to the second largest economy on the European mainland. As German economic might expanded, this meant Germany’s economic preferences, such as an emphasis on fiscal rectitude and austerity for the Eurozone became policy. This has led to resentment from other nations who feel that Germans consider their interest above all others. That they have traded military might for economic heft. The truth is that Germany has long been a mighty economic power. The difference now is that militarily, it ranks very low in Europe. Due to the Ukraine-Russia War, that may or may not be changing soon.

The German question as it exists in the 21^st century has shifted from economic to military affairs because of the war in Ukraine. This is a head spinning change, one that many Germans are finding difficult to comprehend. Everything in modern Germany since 1945 has been predicated upon anti-militarism. Efforts by the western world were focused on providing military protection for Germany, instead of the Germans providing it for themselves. This made sense following the cataclysm of the Second World War, European nations and especially the United States did everything possible to ensure that German military power was kept in check. Memories of the German Wehrmacht conquering virtually all of western, central, and eastern Europe, along with the atrocities committed in the name of Nazism, meant that everything possible was done to ensure that there would be no resurgence of German militarism.

Unification – First German National assembly at St. Paul’s Church in Frankfurt 1848-49

Pacifist Potential – Cold War
To that end, American military bases were placed throughout West Germany. In East Germany, the Red Army did the same thing. These long-term occupation forces were stand-ins for the German military. Of course, the Americans and Soviets were also fighting the Cold War with the German Question at its epicenter. Both sides believed that whoever controlled Germany would also control the rest of Europe and become the world’s premier geopolitical power. It is not a coincidence that the defining struggle of the 20^th century between democratic capitalism and communist totalitarianism took place in Germany. It was then, as it still is today, the place where much of Europe’s future would be decided.

When the Berlin Wall fell and the Iron Curtain collapsed, worries spread anew that a reunified Germany would rise again as a military power. Instead, pacifism had taken hold in Germany during the Cold War. Germany reunified as a neutral nation with a special historical mission to never repeat the militarism that led it into two World Wars. Such was the German aversion to all things military that it consistently failed to meet the required NATO minimum to spend 2% of annual GDP on defense. This became a point of contention between Germany and other NATO member states, in particular the United States which footed the bill – and still does – for a large portion of German defense. Prodding a nation that saw itself as a model of modern European pacifism only went so far. The Germans continued to drag their feet. Then the Russian full scale of invasion of Ukraine occurred on February 24, 2022.

Power struggle – US Army tanks face Soviet armor at Checkpoint Charlie in Berlin October 1961 (Credit: USAMHI)

Making Amends – A Moral Duty
To get an idea of how much the Ukraine-Russia War transformed Germany’s relationship with military spending, consider that after the war began Germany’s initial offer of military support was a grand total of 5,000 helmets. This was insulting, tone-deaf, and foolish. The German chancellor Olaf Scholz was new to his job. He looked more like a puzzled amateur than seasoned leader. His coalition government is center-left and prefers pacifism. Scholz’s own party, the Social Democrats, have long cultivated ties with Russia. During the Cold War, the SPD was filled with skeptics of American military might. Its leanings tended toward accommodation with East Germany. Post-Cold War, Chancellor Gerhard Schroder of the SPD made himself Vladimir Putin’s best friend.

As distasteful as Schroder’s affinity for the Kremlin may seem, he is just the most recognizable example of a trend that has been going on for decades. It was not only Russia’s supply of natural gas to German industry that tied the two nations together, it was also German guilt for the invasion of the Soviet Union during World War II. Germany has tried to make amends as a moral duty. The war brought all this into question. And raised the newest form of the German Question. One, that this past week arose again. Specifically, whether Germany will play a military role once again? The war in Ukraine is providing an inconclusive answer.

Click here for: To Be or Not To Be – The German Question & War In Ukraine #2 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #293)

A Sense of Immediacy – Ukraine & Romania Reconnected By Rail (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #291)

Beauty is few and far between these days in Ukraine. Tragically, the war tends to divert focus from the incredible acts of teamwork and unity that Ukrainians have shown during the last eleven months. Countless stories of the good and great are subverted to the endless series of tragedies small and large that occur each day with terrifying regularity. It is difficult to imagine what could possibly be good in a land where the inhabitants are going through long periods without electricity or water. With sub-zero temperatures in the dead of winter, Ukrainians are bundling themselves up against the cold and figuring out work arounds to find a bit of comfort amid the many miseries of war. Life goes on as it must. Ukrainians still go to work, commute to and from their homes, conduct their daily business with one eye on the sky, and their ears attuned to the scream of air raid sirens. Nevertheless, they continue to live and love while fighting to defeat Russian aggression. Every act of daily life, of normalcy is a small but essential victory in a war effort that demands self-control, suspension of disbelief, and incredible amounts of resolve.

The first train – Connecting Ukraine & Romania by rail (Credit: Alexander Kamyshin)

Reconnecting With Romania – A Thing of Beauty
Essential to making daily life a bit more bearable in a nation beset by war are the critical public services that allow Ukrainians to keep moving forward. These include metros and marshrutkas, open roads and railways running on time. The latter has been one of the greatest success stories of the war. Ukrainian Railways have continued to provide essential services despite, or perhaps because of the war. Their efforts at moving Ukrainians safely around the country deserve the highest commendation. One of the best ways to learn about their success is to follow the Twitter account of Alexander Kamyshin, the CEO of Ukrainian Railways. Kamyshin provides constant updates on the work that is being done to allow Ukrainians the freedom of movement. His tweets are a thing of beauty. They remind the reader that the war has not stopped Ukrainians from making sure a job is well done. To this end, Kamyshin relays some astonishing information. Take for instance, a tweet he made on Saturday, January 14^th, stating that 95% of trains departed on time and 96% arrived on time. It is hard to imagine any national railway company exceeding those numbers in a time of peace, let alone amid the largest war fought in Europe since 1945.

A few days ago, Kamyshin provided more good news in a series of tweets on the opening of a cross border railway line between Ukraine and Romania for the first time in 17 years. To complete the project on their side of the border, Ukrainian railway workers reconstructed 20 kilometers of track during the summer. The Romanians reciprocated by later finishing the section of railway on their territory. Prior to the war, this project had suffered from numerous delays. Ironically, the war has given new impetus to achieving efficiencies in public transport. The endless delays that befell such infrastructure projects prior to the war have vanished. A can-do spirit has taken hold. The war has brought few good things to Ukraine, but a sense of immediacy is one of them. “The future is now” should be the motto for Ukrainian railways.

Master of the rails – Alexander Kamyshin

Within Reach – A Single Railway Journey
The completed line connects Rakiv-Berlebash-Dilove in southwestern Ukraine with Valea Visului in northern Romania. From the latter, trains may head deep into Transylvania or further south to the Romanian capital of Bucharest. This connection between the two countries is particularly important because Romania is a member of both the European Union and NATO. Military supplies can now flow northward by rail. They will be entering Ukraine through an area that has been virtually untouched by Russian attacks. The rugged Carpathian Mountains – 60% of the range is in Ukraine – acts as a natural barrier making this part of Ukraine difficult to attack. With few population centers to target and its far-flung location, the region is an afterthought for Russian military strategists.

As Kamyshin made clear in his tweets, the completed project is more than just an avenue of transport for military supplies. It will also provide a connection for the 30,000 Ukrainians who are citizens of Romania that want to visit their family, friends, and ethnic kin back in the motherland. There are also the 86,000 Ukrainian refugees living in Romania who are waiting out the war. Whenever it is finally safe to return home, many of them will do so by using this new rail route. The most important effect of the rail line will be its benefits to the Ukrainian and Romanian economies.

The line is a major boost to the export of Ukrainian agricultural commodities which are still hampered by the Russian Black Sea Fleet blockade of Ukraine’s coastline. While trains cannot match ships for quantity of grain exports, any additional capacity will help support Ukraine’s economy. In that regard, tourism will also increase as more Romanians can begin traveling into one of the wildest and most affordable vacation destinations in Europe. The Carpathians are usually seen as exclusive to Transylvania, but the least visited part of the range can be found in Ukraine waiting to be discovered. Now the region is easily within reach on a single railway journey.

Marking the spot – Geographical Center of Europe near Dilove (Credit: Sergey Ventseslavsky)

Centerpiece – The Heart of Europe
One thing Kamyshin’s tweets did not mention is a monument located close to Dilove, a Ukrainian village the new rail connection passes through. Close to Dilove is a unique monument placed there by Austro-Hungarian authorities in 1887. This marks the spot imperial geographers claimed as the geographical center of Europe. While many other places have made similar claims, this was among the first. That notoriety was soon lost as the winds of war swept through the area multiple times, obliterating the empire and leading to the monument being hidden behind an iron curtain. That curtain was torn down between 1989 and 1991, this led to the birth of independent Ukraine. For many, that was the moment Ukraine rejoined Europe, but the truth was that it had never left. The heart of Europe was always there. It still is, now more so than ever.    

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No Going Back – The Dnipro Apartment Building Attack (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #290)

Certain moments in the Ukraine-Russia War are points of no return. Moments where it becomes obvious that there will be no going back. That an invisible psychological barrier has been breached between moderation and excess, reason and emotion, logic and madness, anger and fury. In retrospect, the first of these moments is the most obvious, the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine. The moment Russian bombers, missiles, tanks and troop transports violated the Ukrainian border in the early morning hours of February 24, 2022, nothing was going to ever be the same again between the two countries. History was about to be written in blood and so it has been.

Crime against humanity – Result of Russian missile strike on apartment building in Dnipro

Targeted Terror – A Wave of Atrocities
There have been many more moments of no going back since the initial invasion destroyed what little trust was left between Ukraine and Russia after eight years of on again, off again warfare in the Donbas. One point of no return was reached at the end of the Battle of Kyiv in the suburban town of Bucha. This happened when Russian forces assassinated innocent civilians and left their bodies lying conspicuously in the streets as a message to Ukrainians that the Russian way of warfare was deeply personal. The message could not have clearer. While Ukrainians might have defeated the Russian Army on the outskirts of Kyiv, they could not stop them from execution style killings of innocent civilians. Thousands more atrocities would soon follow in occupied areas.

Another turning point was the Mariupol Theater airstrike where the Russians knew children were sheltering. The outrage this provoked hardened attitudes towards any attempts at negotiation and ceasefire. The same could be said for the ten waves of missile strikes against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure which have denied its civilian population of electricity and water during the dead of winter. At this point, the chance for attitudes to soften enough for a brokered peace between the two sides is less than zero. And now as part of those airstrikes, there has been another point of no return reached last week when a Russian missile slammed into an apartment building in the city of Dnipro.   

Deadly sign – Smoke rising from Russian missile strike on the apartment building in Dnipro

Crimes Against Humanity – The War on Normalcy
Russian forces have committed so many war crimes in Ukraine that only the most outrageous and deadly attacks garner headlines. Those that get noticed by the media usually involve multiple deaths that target women, children, and the elderly. Or attacks that strike targets where large groups of people are in the same area. One of the most infamous involved a missile strike on April 8^th that hit the railway station in Kramatorsk. This strike killed 60 people (seven children) and wounded 110 more. Many of those killed were waiting on the platform for trains to evacuate from the war-torn city. Another sadly memorable tragedy occurred on July 14^th when several missiles hit a shopping center and several other buildings in the city of Vinnytsia at mid-morning. The attack killed 28 people (three children) and wounded another 203.

The latest Russian attack on Ukrainian civilians to garner international media attention and stoke outrage occurred last weekend. On January 14th in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro a Russian missile slammed into an apartment building with 1,700 inhabitants. The impact destroyed a portion of the concrete edifice causing 72 apartment and two staircases to collapse. The specific missile used in the attack was a KH-12 meant to target ships. It can also be used to carry nuclear weapons. The overkill was deliberate and the targeting intentional. The strike was part of two volleys of missiles fired that day in the tenth wave of Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure since the beginning of October. In this case though, the target was not electrical or water facilities. Only on a superficial level was it an apartment building.

Instead, the target was everyone living in that building. Mothers and daughters, husbands and sons, newlyweds and elderly, people who felt lucky just to have a roof over their heads. That was until the roof caved in and the walls collapsed. The target was also normal life. People cooking, sleeping, cleaning, playing, watching television, meeting with friends. And of course, life itself was targeted. The death toll so far is up to 40 people with 75 wounded, and many more missing. There will be no going back from this attack, just as there was no going back from the attacks at Bucha, Kramatorsk, Mariupol, Vinnytsia, and now Dnipro. A litany of war crimes that no one can forget, even if they wanted to. These atrocities are representative of the indiscriminate violence which the Russian military has carried out against Ukrainian civilians. This is the byproduct of hatred and a policy of terror. The Kremlin wants to make sure Ukrainians never forget that, not for one moment. They want them to live in terror, always looking to the skies to see what fate is about to fall upon them.

Targeted terror – Damage from the Russian missile strike on the Dnipro apartment building

Hearts & Minds – Fixated on the Future
The Kremlin and Russian Defense Ministry deny carrying out attacks such as the one in Dnipro. Their denials are little more than lip service. The statements are made for domestic political reasons. Cynicism informs the denials. The truth is that the Russian want the Ukrainians to know these attacks on civilians are deliberate. The desired outcome is to depress morale and break the Ukrainian people’s will. To make them believe the war is not worth winning. Thus far, the attacks have done the opposite. Spines are stiffening, fists are perpetually clenched, voices are filled with determination, minds fixated on the future. There are rage and tears in Dnipro, there are similar scenes like this all over Ukraine. There are people who live to see the day when those who committed these crimes are held accountable, but not in the hallowed halls of the Hague. They want to see it happen on the field of battle. There is a war going on in the hearts and minds of the survivors. A war that will not stop until the enemy is defeated. Only then will justice be done and still that might not be enough.

Click here for: A Sense of Immediacy – Ukraine & Romania Reconnected By Rail (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #291)

Battle For A Place That No Longer Exists – The Struggle For Soledar #3 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #289)

According to Vladimir Putin everything is going to plan. That is a sure sign Russian forces have failed to fully capture the salt mining town of Soledar in Donetsk Province. This is not a case where two things can be true at the same time. Either the Russians are in full control of Soledar or Putin is wrong, lying and has no idea of facts on the ground. Considering the Kremlin’s continued mismanagement of the war, no one those fed a steady diet of Russian propaganda would believe what Putin says about Soledar. In the past week, Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin who is the leader of Wagner Group’s mercenary forces that have been fighting for Soledar and Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s chief spokesman all have claimed that Russian forces have captured the town. The pronouncements smack of desperation. Anything to show that Russian forces have achieved a successful outcome, no matter the thousands of soldiers lost in the fighting for what military analysts unanimously agree is a town of little strategic value. Declaring preemptive victory for such a minor success shows just how bad Russia needs a victory to sell back home. Nothing symbolizes the futility of Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine quite like the Battle of Soledar.

Violent Trajectory – Lacking In Logic
Over the past week as the Battle of Soledar continued to rage with reports of high casualty rates on both sides, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Chief of Staff, Andriy Yermak called Soledar “the Verdun of the 21st century.” While it is nowhere near the scale of that bloody, prolonged, and critical battle for the French fortress during World War I, Soledar is the same type of grinding battle on a much smaller scale. This is a battle that has been fought so ferociously that it has become less about territory, tactics or strategy. The battle has advanced to a level of violence which has little to do with logical outcome and strategic imperatives. Zelensky himself said that there were no walls left standing in Soledar. This means that in the dead of winter, there is nowhere for attackers or defenders to run and hide. The battle is analogous to hand-to-hand combat with machine guns, missiles, and artillery.

Soledar hearkens back to the fighting that occurred in the Donbas during the spring and early summer as Russian forces made slow, but steady progress. That fighting resulted in the last true Russian successes with the capture of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. There are differences between those battles and the one for Soledar. The battles for Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk were heavily reliant on artillery. Massive quantities of shells were expended in those efforts. At Soledar, shelling has also been one of the tactics used to take the town, but the most conspicuous method of attack has been human waves of prisoner-soldiers employed as Wagner Group mercenary forces. Ukrainian sources report that their bodies litter the ground in and around Soledar. If they die, which most of them do, their bodies are “left to rot” according to Yermak. These attacks are nothing if not suicidal and still they have not been able to completely capture what amounts to scorched ruins. A question that needs to be asked at this point is what if the Russians do capture Soledar? The answer to that question is crucial to understanding the importance of Soledar for both sides.

Fighting for scraps – Scene at Soledar (Credit: K. Tymoshenķo)

Insidious Cycle – A Microcosm of Russia’s War  
Any reasonable military strategist would have advised the Russians several weeks ago to stop their assault on Soledar. A cost benefit analysis would show that the rewards are not worth the losses. It is not only the thousands of men they are losing which call their attacks on Soledar into question, it is also the fact that if or when they do manage to take what little is left of the town, Russian forces will be exhausted. This defeats the original purpose of the campaign which was to push on towards the city of Bakhmut and lay siege to it from the north. Whichever battalions on the Russian side manage to survive Soledar are not going to be in any condition to continue fighting. The longer the assault on Soledar has gone on, the less it has made any sort of sense. Yet the Russian forces fighting for the town are caught in a trap of their own making.

Now that they have claimed control over the town, calling off the assault would be a public relations disaster. No matter how the Kremlin and/or Wagner Group would try to spin a withdrawal, the truth would be obvious. They had wasted thousands of lives, expended countless number of missiles, shells, and other ammunition for a town that was never worth taking in the first place. In a sense, Soledar is the entire Russian war effort in microcosm. The problem for the Russians is that now Soledar must be captured. There is simply no going back. And after capturing Soledar, they are committed to making a push on Bakhmut, otherwise Soledar will not have mattered. This cycle is just as insidious as the battle they are fighting.

Into the maelstrom – Ukrainian military vehicles near Soledar

Elusive Victory – To Be Continued
The Ukrainians have a different objective. They can afford to lose Soledar, the town as it was once known no longer exists. Losing men fighting for what is left of Soledar makes little sense, but there does seem to be a method to this madness. Ukrainian forces are holding out because they want to exhaust Russian forces at Soledar. This will make it more difficult for the Russians to attack at other places along the front lines. Furthermore, the Russian focus has been squarely on Soledar for several weeks now. This benefits any future Ukrainian offensive because while Russian forces are fixated on capturing a place of dubious strategic value, Ukrainian forces might launch an attack at a weak point in the Russian lines, hoping to achieve another breakthrough like the one that occurred in Kharkiv Province this past autumn. Whether or not that happens is likely to be determined this spring. Meanwhile, the Battle of Soledar will continue as both sides search for an elusive victory on their own terms.

Click here for: No Going Back – The Dnipro Apartment Building Attack (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #290)

Fighting Among Themselves – The Struggle For Soledar #2 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #288)

In any war it is bad enough to fight the enemy, even worse is to fight among yourselves. Dissension in the ranks is a cancer that can easily spread. At its worst, this can metastasize into mutiny. There is also the chance that internal dissension turns to infighting where forces fighting on the same side begin to target each other. In the Ukraine-Russia War, mutiny and infighting are two distinct possibilities due to the low state of morale among Russian soldiers. There is good reason for this. They have been forced to fight against a highly motivated opponent while plagued by poor supplies, inedible food, careless commanders, and an alarmingly high number of casualties. The chance of internal dissension is due to increase because most Russian soldiers fighting in 2023 will be conscripts. Many of them were given little choice if they wanted to fight. Some were press ganged off the street, while others were selected because they were ethnic minorities living in rural areas. This is the Kremlin war where the poor man is made to bear the ultimate burden.

Salt in the wounds – Soledar

Winner Takes It All – More Than Bragging Rights
Some analysts believe the inherent tension in a war of choice that most Russian conscripts would gladly have chosen to avoid, might eventually manifest into an outright mutiny. There have been sporadic reports of refusals to fight among individual Russian soldiers and small units throughout the war, but nothing to the extent that it has detrimentally affected military operations. At least none that is known. While a mutiny is improbable, recent events have shown the ugly specter of infighting is not. Internal conflict reared its ugly head this past week as tension between Wagner Group mercenary forces and the Russian military went public over who should get credit for the capture of Soledar. This salt mining town in Donetsk Province is of dubious strategic value, but highly symbolic because its capture would allow the Russians to claim their first battlefield success since early July. There is more than just bragging rights at stake in what might be called the Second Battle of Soledar. This is a fight for power that goes all the way to the Kremlin’s gilded halls.

On one side is Yevgeny Prigozhin the leader of Wagner Group, who yearns to play a much bigger role in Russian politics. His mercenary forces have seized an opportunity to show they can conduct their own successful military campaigns in Ukraine. On the other side is the Russian Ministry of Defense. While success has largely eluded the Russian military, they are concerned that the Wagner Group may be gaining in power at their expense. The tensions between the two broke into the open when the Russian Defense Ministry announced they had captured Soledar. The Ukrainians soon provided a rebuttal stating that the claim was false and their troops were still holding on in the town., This was nothing new. Competing claims between the two sides over contested areas have been common, but this disagreement had another side. A senior commander in the Wagner Group, Andrei Troshev issued a statement saying, “Soledar was taken solely with the efforts of the Wagner Group fighters.” He added that “there is no need to insult the fighters by humiliating their effort.” Troshev accused the Russian Defense Ministry of taking credit for the work of Wagner Group forces.

Before battle – Soledar (Credit: Maxar Technologies)

Power & Prestige – The War Back Home
For several weeks it has been well known that Wagner Group soldiers have been doing the bulk of the fighting in what has been described as human wave attacks by Ukrainian defenders. Most of these mercenaries are prisoner-soldiers who signed up to fight in return for their freedom if they manage to survive the frontlines. It appears that the Defense Ministry was claiming credit for an operation which the Russian military played at most, a minor role. After Troshev’s comments, the Defense Ministry issued another statement saying a “heterogenous group of Russian soldiers” had captured Soledar and Wagner Group soldiers had been responsible for the street-by-street fighting. Ironically, both sides were fighting over what military analysts say is a minor victory at most. The capture of Soledar will not matter to the overall outcome of the campaign to take the nearby city of Bakhmut. Furthermore, it is still not clear whether Russian forces, either regular military or mercenaries, have complete control of Soledar.

The real importance of Soledar is that it shows the infighting among Russian elites to win favor with Putin and positioning for a post-Putin Russia. The Russian military has borne the brunt of public criticism in Russia for mismanagement of the war effort and rightfully so. Everything from planning to supplies to operations has been mismanaged. Because the military has been so inept and Russia’s casualty total so high, the Kremlin has encouraged the use of mercenary forces to achieve military objectives. This has not affected much change on the battlefield. The casualties taken by Wagner Group forces in the Battle of Soledar have been extremely high. Human wave attacks and frontal assaults are not sustainable with an estimated force of 50,000 soldiers, but for Yevgeny Prigozhin that is not the point. Prigozhin’s goal is to increase his power and prestige in Russia. Leading a Russian force to its first success in six months would be a boost to his profile domestically.

After battle – Soledar (Credit: Maxar Technologies)

Putin’s Promotion – A Test of Loyalty
Prigozhin’s day of glory will have to wait. In the same week his forces supposedly seized Soledar, Putin put Valery Gerasimov in overall command of Russian forces. This meant Sergei Surovikin, a favorite of Prigozhin and other pro-war, hard right nationalists had been demoted. He will answer to Gerasimov in the future. Gerasimov is a longtime Putin loyalist whose fingerprints were all over the Ukraine invasion plan that failed so miserably. His ascendency means that Putin has decided that the Defense Ministry will be firmly in control of leading the war effort. Prigozhin’s dreams of greater things, both on the battlefield and domestic front are deferred for now. As for Putin, he knows that only the military can organize and carry out the kind of major spring offensive he wants. Wagner Group will be relegated to a lesser role, but they are still dangerous. As much as to their own side, as to the Ukrainian forces.  

Click here for: Battle For A Place That No Longer Exists  – The Struggle For Soledar #3 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #289)

Grains of Salt – The Struggle For Soledar #1 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #287)

The battle between Ukrainian and Russian forces has been ongoing for a salt mining town in eastern Ukraine with the atmospheric name of Soledar. A name that at least visually has striking similarities to that of the word soldier. Soledar and soldiers only goes together in the most diabolical sense of those words. Thousands of soldiers have fallen fighting for what not so long ago was a town of eleven thousand known for the salt mined there and nothing else. Aerial photos recently taken of the town show that nothing has been left standing. Among the fallen have been thousands of soldiers whose blood has been spilled in the dead of winter for what amounts to little more than an advantageous position where many more can die fighting for the city of Bakhmut further to the south. That is the only strategic importance for Russian troops.

The embattled Ukrainian defenders at Soledor have a different idea of what this battle means. While it is important for them not to lose any ground they occupy, their main strategy at Soledor is to inflict heavy casualties on Russian forces while losing fewer of their own. The fighting has been particularly ferocious for the strategic stakes to be so low. That is because Soledor is much more than a battle between Ukrainian and Russian forces for a town, it is also a battle between two groups of Russian forces for the right to claim responsibility for Russia’s first success on the battlefield since early July. Whomever prevails, they will ignore the fact that Soledor now ceases to exist, and its strategic value is nowhere near the loss of men and material needed to take it.

Looking down – Aerial view of Soledar

Wagner Group – The Blessing of Putin
Soledar means “gift of salt”, but for thousands of soldiers it has only meant the diabolical gift of death. Since August, Russian forces have been trying to take the town. Their efforts stalled out after capturing its eastern half at the beginning of autumn. During the next three months, Russia’s military high command had much greater worries than capturing the rest of Soledar. Specifically, the high command was focused on Russian forces losing 3,000 kilometers in Kharkiv Sector and being forced to abandon Kherson, the only provincial capital in Ukraine they had captured since the war started. Meanwhile, the battle for Soledar was frozen. Few knew it at the time, but there was another less “official” military leader who saw Soldedar and the nearby city of Bakhmut as an opportunity for the taking. On December 27^th, mercenary forces of the Wagner Group renewed the push to take Soledar.

The Wagner Group is the brainchild of Putin’s former chef, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a man of rapacious ambition. Prior to the war, the Wagner Group was a relatively small, tight knit group of mercenaries who were sent to such places as Syria and the Central African Republic where they helped ruling regimes solidify their control. They became notorious for committing numerous atrocities against civilians. As their leader, Prigozhin is the personification of rogue leadership. He has no inhibitions about ordering his mercenaries to disobey the acknowledged rules of war. For the Wagner Group, words such as “genocide” and “war crimes” are meaningless. The group works outside of Russian military control. They have the blessing of Putin, which is all they need.   

The gift of salt – Soledar

Ready Recruits – Desperately Seeking Soldiers
Prigozhin has been among the most vocal critics of Russia’s military leadership by publicly pointing out their woeful management of the war. Prigozhin’s goal is to present Wagner as a competent alternative fighting force. One that can provide a solution to what ails Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine. Prigozhin is not doing this for altruistic purposes. He wants to establish his own power base that will prove useful when Putin is no longer the leader of Russia. The fight to succeed Putin has already begun. It now extends all the way to the frontlines in Ukraine. At Soledar, Prigozhin decided to take matters into his own hands. Before doing this, he utilized a unique approach to find more soldiers. Prigozhin began recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine under the command of the Wagner Group.

Russia is so desperate for manpower that they will enlist almost anyone for duty in Ukraine. This includes convicts, many of whom are fighting under the Wagner Group’s command. Any prisoner who completes a term of military service in Ukraine will have their crimes forgiven. Their only problem is trying to survive on the battlefield. Prigozhin is estimated to have recruited upwards of 50,000 prisoners for what amounts to a suicide mission in the hope of forgiveness of their crimes and freedom. These prisoners have been the cannon fodder for Prigozhin’s to show Putin that the Wagner Group can succeed where the Russian military has failed.

Wagner Group soldiers are notorious for having a take no prisoner’s approach to battle. Likewise, they expect no quarter from their enemies. This makes any battle in which they are engaged a life and death struggle, with an emphasis on the latter. Reports from Ukrainian sources state that the streets of Soledar are littered with bodies. Most of these are led by the Wagner Group. The human wave attack is the preferred tactic of convict forces. Ukrainian sources report that the streets of Soledar are littered with bodies due to frontal assaults. These attacks have been somewhat successful, but at a massive cost in lives. Prigozhin could care less if thousands of convicts get killed. Their life is less valued at the front, than that of the Russian Army soldier. The fact that Wagner’s leadership has less regard for their soldiers, than the Russian military has for their own soldiers is startling.

Casualty of war – Near Soledar

Results Driven – Mission Impossible
The prisoners fighting for Wagner Group are either getting killed, getting wounded or getting results. One Ukrainian soldier fighting in the Battle of Soledar remarked that when making an attack, the prisoner-soldiers seemed more terrified of their own side, then they were of the Ukrainians. That is probably because of the brutality that awaits any prisoner-soldiers who fail to follow the Wagner’s Groups orders. The upshot has been an incredible number of killed and wounded in the Battle of Soledar. According to Russian reports, Soledar was captured this past week. That was when another battle began over who would claim responsibility for a limited success, if it can even be called that.

Click here for: Russia’s Internal Dissent – The Struggle For Soledar #2 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #288)

Half-Truths – Russia’s Most Serious Defeats in Ukraine (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #286)

As the old saying goes, a broken clock is right two times a day. This applies Russian officials who despite trying their best to cast fallacy as honesty and utilize cynicism as substitute for sincerity, still manage to allow the truth to seep out in some of their statements on the war in Ukraine. Half-truths are a step up from outright lies. Russian officials are notorious for not just bending the truth, they enjoy telling the opposite of it. That is why it is worth taking notice when any statement from a Russian official comes closer to telling the truth. This was the case when Danill Bezsonov, spokesman for the Russian proxy government in Donetsk Province, commented online about the Ukrainian missile strike that destroyed a soldier’s barracks in the town of Makiivka, killing an estimated 400 Russian soldiers. In the wake of that attack Bezsonov wrote on his Telegram channel, “The enemy inflicted the most serious defeats in this war on us not because of their coolness and talent, but because of our mistakes.” There was both a half-truth and contemptuous disdain in his words.

Up next – Vladimir Putin with Valery Gerasimov\

Self-Defeating – Decisive Turns
Start with the half-truth. Bezsonov is correct that the greatest defeats suffered in the war by Russian forces have been largely due to their own mistakes. The list of Russian military failures in Ukraine is long and inglorious. From the start of the war right up until the latest self-inflicted disaster at the barracks in Makiivka, the Russians have managed to perform well below expectations. A nation that historically is no stranger to military debacles has added many more since the war began ten and a half months ago. The old saying, “how you start, is how you end” has never been truer. The Russian invasion was poorly planned or more to the point, hardly planned at all. This resulted in a poor performance that ended in a resounding defeat at the Battle of Kyiv.

Other early military operations went a bit better, but once Ukrainian forces were fully armed, the Russians met with little, if any success. Most armies that continue fighting a war that is not going well learn at least a few lessons from their failures and try not repeat them. The Russians have been largely impervious to learning from their mistakes. Another example occurred this week when Vladimir Putin replaced Sergei Surovikin as overall commander of Russian military forces in Ukraine. General Surovikin was nicknamed the “Butcher” and lived up to that nickname for the past three months. He executed one of the few successful Russian strategies of the war by targeting Ukraine’s critical electrical and water infrastructure.

While this did little to turn the war in Russia’s favor, it did cause major problems for the Ukrainian government which was forced to focus less on the battlefield and more on taking care of a civilian population enduring difficult winter conditions without heat, electricity or water for long periods of time. Surovikin also convinced Putin to allow Russian forces to withdrawal from Kherson, saving them from a siege and probable surrender. Yet none of this saved Surovikin from being replaced by Valery Gerasimov, the long time Chief of Staff for the Russian Armed Forces who was one of the invasion’s chief architects. The Kremlin still fails to heed the lessons the war should have taught them long ago. They have become masters of self-defeat.

Another mistake – Smoke rising over Makiivka

Inferiority Complex – A Less Than Superior Attitude
Bezsonov also put into writing the contemptuous disdain that the Russians have shown towards Ukrainian forces. By saying, “the most serious defeats” were not because of the Ukrainian forces “coolness and talent, but because of our mistakes” Bezsonov illustrates the Russian attitude of superiority. That superiority is not the product of Russian skill or results on the battlefield. Instead, it is a failure to admit the obvious, that the Ukrainians have shown an adeptness at combat coupled with superior strategy and tactics that the Russians have been unable to match. If anything, Bezsonov’s profession of scarcely disguised Russian superiority is the product of an inferiority complex. Arrogance and disrespect are the tell-tale signs. This is natural for a people who have long professed their superiority to Ukrainians.

A sense that the Russians are losing the war has caused no end of consternation back home. Beyond the predictable casting of blame, there is a realization that the Russians do not care to admit, the Ukrainians are superior to them on the battlefield. That must be terrifying for the Russians. If they lose their sense of superiority what do the have left other than reality. They find themselves saddled with a despotic government, a war that should never have been fought, and innumerable economic problems that are unsolvable without massive reforms. It is easy to see why Bezsonov and so many other Russian officials do not want to admit the reality of their situation. The Russians not only are faced with a government that lies to them, but they are also lying to themselves. The latter is just as dangerous as the former. Russian finds itself in an increasingly untenable position that is likely to get worse before it gets better.

A little respect – Ukrainian troops on the road in Donbas

Truth Telling – Facing Reality
Bezsonov’s statement managed to sum up the intractable problem that Russians face with the war in Ukraine. To put it simply, the Russians are their own worst enemy. They continue to make self-defeating mistakes in combat and managing the war. At the same time, they do not respect their opponent. The Russian sense of superiority is fragile. It has been proven false time and again by results on the battlefield. Admitting that the war in Ukraine is being lost would be a shock to the system, one from which Russia might not be able to recover. For a nation led by a man whose entire regime has been based on lies and continues to be, it is not easy to face reality. Ironically, the only way to stop repeating the same mistakes would be to start telling the truth, the whole truth. To do otherwise will just delay the reckoning that is bound to come.

Click here for: Grains of Salt – The Struggle For Soledar #1 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #287)