A show of weakness rather than a show of strength is what could lead Vladimir Putin to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. A couple of days ago, French President Emmanuel Macron gave a masterclass in what not to do when deterring a nuclear armed opponent. During an interview on French television Macron said, “Our (nuclear) doctrine rests on the fundamental interests of the nation. They are defined clearly and wouldn’t be directly affected at all if, for example, there were a ballistic nuclear attack in Ukraine, in the region.” The statement was uncalled for and unprecedented for a NATO member state at such a geopolitically tense time. Nuclear deterrence relies upon having a credible threat to deter a nuclear armed opponent.
Givers & Takers – Macron’s Putin Problem
When a nuclear armed nation such as Russia realizes that they are not threatened with a retaliatory nuclear strike from an opponent it renders the idea of deterrence ineffective. Macron was giving Russia carte blanche to do as they pleased in Ukraine. While no one would expect France to undertake a retaliatory nuclear strike against Russia in the event they latter use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, there was no reason for Macron to make a public statement to that effect. To make matters worse, Macron did not stop with Ukraine. He went on to say that France would not use their nuclear arsenal to respond to a Russian nuclear strike in “the region.” Macron could have only been referring to the Baltic states, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Moldova. All except the latter are members of NATO and the European Union. Macron could not have done a better job of undermining those organizations if Vladimir Putin had written the script for him.
In the geopolitical environment which currently exists in Europe, leaders must choose their words carefully, especially when it comes to nuclear doctrine. Sending mixed messages to the Kremlin increases the risk of nuclear escalation. Silence speaks volumes and enhances strategic ambiguity whereby the Kremlin is kept wondering what the response will be from the west if Putin decides to go nuclear in Ukraine. Macron did the exact opposite. He chose his words recklessly. Macron’s defense is that he does not want to see a global war, no one else in the west does either, but the way to avoid one is to disavow appeasement. That strategy was already tried for twenty years with Putin and has led to situation which confronts statesmen in the western world today. Macron continues to operate under the assumption that Putin will stop the nuclear saber rattling if he is given enough assurances. That is a tragic miscalculation. Macron should know by now that Putin will take whatever he is given and provide little to nothing in return.
Isolation & Insinuation – Going It Alone
Despite Macron’s spectacular show of spinelessness, it is important to remember that this is not out of the ordinary for the French Fifth Republic. There is a long and lamentable history of France taking an independent stance when it comes to post-World War II European security. This is in the best or worst tradition – depending upon one’s perspective – of Charles De Gaulle. The often maddeningly arrogant De Gaulle never missed an opportunity to stick it to the Americans and British. It was De Gaulle who pulled France out of NATO’s military structure, but not the alliance in 1966. This was a breathtaking about face from a founding member of the alliance. In 2009, French President Nicolas Sarkozy finally restored France back to full status as a NATO member. This attitude has less to do with strategic imperatives and more to do with France displaying a commitment to their own narrow self-interest.
Much like his telephone friend Vladimir Putin, Macron has badly miscalculated on NATO. The man who told the world NATO was experiencing “brain death” prior to the Ukraine-Russia War, is now showing a lack of careful consideration for his comments. Macron’s go it alone attitude only serves to isolate him further from any potential postwar settlement. For some strange reason, he continues working hard to insinuate himself into Putin’s good graces. Macron’s behavior is nothing if not contradictory. On one hand, he criticizes Russia’s conduct in the war. On the other, Macron continues the phone calls where he tries to convince Putin to end the war. Macron’s efforts have proved counterproductive. Putin’s behavior has not changed since Macron began his phone calls. The Kremlin continues to escalate attacks on Ukrainian civilians and engage in nuclear saber rattling.
Standing Alone – The Road To Oblivion
Macron appears to want everyone to step back from the brink of destruction. He offers an olive branch to Russia by proclaiming that France will forego use of its nuclear arsenal if Russia attacks Ukraine or the surrounding region with a nuclear weapon. Rather than stand firm and stay silent, Macron offer up Ukraine and Eastern European nations – including those that belong to NATO – as sacrificial lambs to a Kremlin induced nuclear nightmare. Instead of standing with fellow members in the world’s most powerful military alliance, Macron has his own agenda. For Macron it is not about European security or saving the world from nuclear destruction. To put it quite simply, it is about Macron’s ideas of how European security should operate. It is hard to understand what Macron was thinking when he disavowed use of France’s nuclear arsenal as a proactive measure to preserve peace. Perhaps Macron is trying to steal a march on Turkey’s strongman President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has positioned himself as a potential mediator to help end the Ukraine-Russia war. The difference is that Putin respects Erdogan because he knows the Turkish President has steel in his spine. Macron has shown nothing of the sort.
Earlier this year Macron said that the western alliance must be careful not to humiliate Putin. In that regard, Macron has decided to play the lead actor in a bizarre role reversal where he humiliates himself. All Macron’s latest strategic blunder will do is make Putin more likely to engage in nuclear brinkmanship. Macron wants to lead, but instead he follows Putin down the road to oblivion. Europe is much less safe due to Macron’s latest statement. He does not understand the doctrine of nuclear deterrence or the power of NATO. Deterrence is the reason Europe has never been involved in a nuclear war with either the Soviet Union or Russia. Macron has willfully ignored nuclear deterrence. By doing so he has weakened himself and France. While NATO stands firm, Macron stands alone.
Click here for: Conscripting Cannon Fodder – Russia’s Reserves & The War In Ukraine (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #220)
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