Show of Strength – Erdogan Turns To The West (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #329)

The shift was subtle and transformative. Over the past two weeks, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made several important moves that signal he is distancing himself from Vladimir Putin and Russia. The moves were a classic case of gradually and then suddenly. One of the smaller, more telling moves that signaled a change in Turkish policy occurred when Erdogan returned five Azovstal commanders from the Siege of Mariupol to Ukraine. These commanders had been imprisoned, but then allowed into Turkey with the agreement that they would stay there for the duration of the war. Erdogan unilaterally decided to let them go home. This infuriated the Kremlin, but the Putin regime was powerless to stop it. Erdogan had fired the initial shot across the bow as to Turkey’s future intentions.

Standing with Allies – Recep Tayyip Erdogan at NATO summit in Vilnius
(Credit: UK Prime Minister)

User Mentality – Electoral Calculations
Erdogan’s turn to the west was surprising, but not altogether shocking. He has a reputation for head spinning shifts in his policies. When Erdogan no longer finds something politically useful, he quickly discards it. If this means doing a complete about face, then so be it. His instincts are centered around his own political survival. This has become more pronounced the longer he has been in power (Erdogan has ruled Turkey as either the Prime Minister or President since 2005). Whatever works best for Erdogan to secure his power base and popularity at home becomes his preferred policy. His shifts on the war in Ukraine illustrate this. Erdogan spent the first 500 days of the war cultivating both sides. He positioned himself as an intermediary between the west, Ukraine, and the Kremlin. This was not done out of generosity or a sudden urge to create a diplomatic legacy. Instead, Russia was central to his electoral plans. He found it economically useful in boosting his prospects in the 2023 Turkish Presidential election.

Erdogan subsequently won the election, even though his margin of victory was much slimmer than in the past. That is because the Turkish economy has been hit by skyrocketing inflation over the past several years. This is due to Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policy of keeping interest rates low which inflation soars. Turkey’s central bank exhausted its reserves defending the lira which has been plummeting in value. Following his reelection. Erdogan has given signals that he is moving back towards economic orthodoxy. Secure in his presidency for the next five years, Erdogan finds Russia much less useful to his interests. Due to its isolation, Russia relies on Turkey as a middleman for its trade. This helps stabilize the increasingly fragile Russian economy. The Kremlin has few allies and little choice but to continue cultivating the Turks.

The flow of Russians moving to Turkey has lessened from earlier in the war. Erdogan will continue to milk these self-exiled Russians for all they are worth to the Turkish economy. The exiles have few places to turn besides Turkey that offer both a western lifestyle and affordability. Other areas of the Middle East such as Dubai are prohibitively expensive for middle class Russians. All this gives Erdogan leverage. He can use this leverage to give the Putin regime the cold shoulder. There is little the Kremlin can do about it except verbally protest. This is the compromising position Russia finds itself in due to Putin’s decision to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s frenemies such as Turkey and China hold all the cards. A canny political operator like Erdogan is now taking full advantage of this situation.

Frenemies – Recep Tayyip Erdogan & Vladimir Putin in September 2022 (Credit: kremlin.ru)

Coup De Grace – The Westward Pivot
The coup de grace of Erdogan’s pivot to the west came in Vilnius, Lithuania just before the NATO Summit began. Erdogan had been holding up Sweden from joining NATO because in his opinion they were not doing enough to deal with their Kurdish population fomenting anti-Turkish resistance. Erdogan has requested that several Kurdish exiles be returned to Turkey for prosecution for attempted coup on him in 2016. The Swedish parliament recently passed laws to deal more stringently with Kurds involved in terrorist activities. Leading up to the summit, Erdogan still insisted that Sweden’s efforts had not been enough. Then suddenly he arrived in Vilnius and announced that he would allow Sweden’s request for NATO membership to go forward. Erdogan had met with NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson beforehand. American president Joe Biden had also spoken with him. Whatever was said in these meetings helped ultimately seal the deal.

Erdogan stole the spotlight with his announcement. He was all smiles, as were the leaders of other NATO member states. We do not know Vladimir Putin’s reaction, but it certainly was not a smile. The Kremlin issued a statement to the effect that allowing Sweden to join would only lead to further problems between NATO and Russia. That is true, insofar as the problems are all on Russia’s side. They are hemmed in on their western flank. The Baltic Sea will now be dominated by NATO members with the accession of Finland and Sweden. Furthermore, Russia no longer has an outlet from the Black Sea to the Aegean and Mediterranean since Turkey closed the Bosphorus straits to all military ships after the war began. Russia’s inability to keep Erdogan from turning to the west is a major strategic blow. With a couple of decisions, Erdogan has damaged Putin and further isolated Russia.

Show of force – Recep Tayyip Erdogan alongside Volodomyr Zelensky at NATO Summit (Credit: UK Prime Minister)

Erdogan’s Solution – Without Restraint
One aspect of Erdogan’s pivot away from Russia has been overlooked by many commentators. This involves the 2016 attempted coup in which he was nearly overthrown. In its aftermath, Erdogan reasserted his authority with a vengeance. Tens of thousands were arrested. Anyone suspected of the least bit of involvement faced criminal charges. Thousands have never seen the light of day since Erdogan struck back. Whatever one thinks of Erdogan’s strongman tendencies, no one doubts that he is charge of Turkey. Erdogan’s strong counterreaction to the attempted coup is the opposite of Putin’s to the recent mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner group mercenaries. Putin has been forced to compromise with the mutineers. He reportedly met with them to explain his opinion of their actions. Conversely, Erdogan acted without restraint in response to the attempted coup against him, It is doubtful that Erdogan has much respect left for Putin. Strongmen like Erdogan respect strength. That is something Putin has lost, along with a valuable ally.

Click here for: Symbolism & Strategy – The Second Attack On Kerch Bridge (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #330)

The Power Vacuum – Russia Receding/Turkey Rising In The Caucasus & Central Asia (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #218)

Two strongmen met in Kazakhstan, but one is now much stronger than the other. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met in Astana on September 12th with Vladimir Putin at the clunkily named Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia. The balance of power between the two has been turned in Erdogan’s favor due to Putin’s disastrous decision to invade Ukraine and the continued failures of the Russian military on the battlefield there. It is cliche to say that power abhors a vacuum, but like all cliches it is built upon a foundation of truth.

Erdogan seeks to expand Turkish influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia with nations predominantly populated by Turkic peoples. Meanwhile, Putin grasps for a lifeline to save his faltering regime and salvage a semblance of success from his ill-conceived war. To that end, Erdogan is said to be offering his services as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia. Erdogan is not doing this out of the goodness of his heart or because he considers Putin a “dear friend”, as he often refers to him. Rather like all strongmen who play power politics, Erdogan sees an opportunity to promote his own interests at the expense of others. In this case, Erdogan can strengthen Turkish power in the region, while Russia is weakened by the war.

Geopolitical chess – Central Asia & the Caucasus

Geopolitical Chess – Filling The Void
The geopolitical chessboard in Central Asia and the Caucasus is in the process of undergoing its greatest transformation since the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the latter dissolved, no less than eight independent nations (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) arose from the ashes of that fallen empire. The process of nation building was schizoid and chaotic as these states attempted to establish themselves. This was particularly true during the 1990’s. Russia could not afford to assert itself in the region due to domestic difficulties. China was on the rise, but nowhere near as powerful as it is today. The western world led by the United States involved itself up to a point, especially with developing energy resources in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. The region’s geographical characteristics of land locked nations covered by massive mountain ranges and limitless steppe land defeated American attempts to assert greater influence.

Instead, westerners learned to ignore prolific human rights abuses, dictatorial governments and myriad ethnic conflicts to focus on shared economic and security (anti-terrorism post 9/11) interests. After Vladimir Putin rose to power and stabilized Russia, the Kremlin set about reasserting their authority in the region. They re-established old Soviet era economic ties and supported like-minded governments and rulers through financial inducements and military means. This drew many of these nations back into the Russian sphere of influence. Putin took every opportunity to project power showcasing Russian strength in the region.

One of the most striking examples of this occurred in 2008 when the Russian Army invaded Georgia. This led to the unseating of Georgia’s pro-western prime minister Mikhail Saakashvili and the creation of two pro-Russian separatist statelets in South Ossetia and Abkhazia on Georgia’s territory. In retrospect, this was a dress rehearsal for Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support for separatism that led to war in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine in 2014. Putin demonstrated that he would do everything possible to undermine pro-western governments being established in former Soviet territories. The Baltic states did not figure into this strategy, because by the time Putin took power, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, were too far gone for Russia to try and alter their democratic structure. Anywhere governance and institutions were weak, Russia was able to fill part of the void.

Shared interests – Recep Tayyip Erdogan with Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev

Shared Interests – The Turkic World
Putin’s efforts were largely successful in keeping the Caucasian and Central Asian states in the Russian sphere of influence. The greatest challenge to Russian influence came from a fellow authoritarian regime in China. Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative facilitated greater connections between China and the area, binding them through shared economic interests. China was able to finance projects and offer loans to nations in the region that would otherwise have been unavailable to them. This has led to major upgrades in infrastructure. Putin had little choice but to allow this. China’s economic might and powerful geopolitical position trumped Russia’s historical ties. From the Kremlin’s perspective this was easier to stomach since China’s government is anti-western and dictatorial. 

The other external threat to Russia in the region was and still is Erdogan’s Turkey. After the Turkish strongman cemented his power at home, he looked to the area as one where fellow Turkic peoples would welcome their ethnic brethren’s involvement. Erdogan envisaged a greater Turkish world with himself at the helm. His interest was somewhat different from Putin’s wants to create a neo-Russian empire. For Turkey, the massive energy resources found throughout the area are essential to their economic well-being and national security. Turkey has extremely limited energy resources. They import most of the fossil fuels which power their economy and keep the lights on in Anatolia. While Russia can provide them much of what they need, the Turks would rather deal with nations that are less powerful and more trustworthy. It gives them greater leverage in negotiating favorable trade and military deals. In turn, such states as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan see the Turks as leverage against undue Russian influence. Azerbaijan also has been able to hedge Turkish support to get the upper hand in their continuing struggle with Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Shifting strategies – Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin

Projecting Power – Centers of Influence
The Russian recession from the Caucasus and Central Asia is just beginning. Putin’s war in Ukraine has gravely weakened Russian influence in the region. China and Turkey are prepared to fill the vacuum in power. Erdogan’s positioning himself as a mediator in the Ukraine-Russia war is a master stroke of diplomacy that will strengthen Turkey’s foreign policy. The rewards could be vast. Turkey should be able to expand its influence over one of the world’s richest areas in natural resources. The Turks will be projecting power outward, while Russia will be focused on the internal tumult caused by Putin’s War in Ukraine.

Erdogan is cultivating Russia for trade and economic development as many of their more dynamic businessmen relocate their operations to Turkey where the business environment is much more congenial. With an election due to be held in Turkey next year, Erdogan needs help boosting the Turkish economy where inflation is running at the alarmingly high rate of eighty-four percent. In the near term, friendly relations with Russia can help Erdogan domestically. It is hard to believe that this friendship will prove enduring. Erdogan is using Putin to get what he wants. The weaker Putin gets, the more Erdogan will take. This is all part of a generational transformation in the regional balance of power that will accelerate in the years to come. 

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