It was another long night for those following the Ukraine-Russia War. Reports began to flow out of Ukraine that the Kerch Bridge had been struck again. The bridge last made headline news in October, when it was damaged by a surreptitious Ukrainian attack. That attack came courtesy of a bomb planted in a vehicle. It rendered parts of the bridge inoperable for several weeks. The attack was as symbolic as it was sensational. If the Kremlin could not protect the main transport link to and from the regime’s most prized piece of stolen Ukrainian territory, then none of Russia’s ill-gotten gains were safe. Crimea is the most sacred territory Russia has taken during Vladimir Putin’s time in power. If the Kremlin cannot keep Crimea safe from attack, then the foundation of Putin’s nine-year war against Ukraine would be significantly undermined.
Coming apart – Collapsed section on Kerch Bridge
Attack Strategy – Under the Cover of Darkness
The Kerch Bridge was a key project that Putin personally promoted to connect Crimea with the rest of Russia. It was completed in 2018, just four years after Russian forces occupied Crimea. The bridge is one of Putin’s most advertised achievements. That is why the two attacks (October 8, 2022 and July 17, 2023) on the bridge might as well have been an attack on Putin. These attacks both infuriated and alarmed the Kremlin. Not long after the first attack, the Russians retaliated by targeting Ukraine’s electrical and water infrastructure in a bid to increase the suffering of Ukrainian civilians. This ferocious counter response showed just how badly the attack on Kerch Bridge wounded Putin’s pride. The reaction was disproportionate to the physical damage done to the bridge. That damage was repaired, and the bridge reopened.
The psychological effect of the attack was longer lasting. The Kerch Bridge was now vulnerable. And if the Kerch Bridge was vulnerable then Crimea was vulnerable. And if Crimea was vulnerable, then the Russian military’s continued ability to prosecute the war in Ukraine was vulnerable. This was the domino effect of a single attack on Kerch Bridge. Most importantly, the attack was an ominous warning to the Kremlin. The next Ukrainian attack on the bridge was not a matter of if, but when. That moment arrived in the early morning hours of July 16th. Under the cover of darkness, two Ukrainian maritime drones struck the bridge. They were right on target, resulting in explosions that damaged one part of the bridge.
Initial reports of the attack on Kerch Bridge were met with excitement and vindication by Ukrainians and pro-Ukrainian supporters. There were great expectations of the bridge collapsing into the sea with Russia’s physical connection to Crimea broken. These expectations were tempered by reports that once again the bridge had been damaged, but the destruction was limited. There were videos showing long lines of vehicle traffic backed up as Russians on holidays tried to flee the peninsula. An official announcement stated that those looking to leave the peninsula would have to take a dangerous alternative route through occupied Ukrainian territory. That would put them well within range of Ukrainian artillery and missiles. That is not the kind of vacation that Russians were expecting when they traveled to Crimea.
Target practice – Visible damage from attack on Kerch Bridge (Credit: Maxar Technologies)
Crimean War – No Man’s Land
Will this second attack on Kerch Bridge change the strategic or tactical situation in the war? Not nearly as much as many had hoped. According to Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, one part of the highway was so badly damaged that it cannot be restored. Vehicle traffic will resume using other undamaged lanes. The railway across the bridge is also still intact. The physical damage is not the Kremlin’s biggest problem. The optics of the bridge being attacked are much worse for the Putin regime’s reputation. In a regime where image has been everything, the Kerch Bridge attack is a public relations disaster. There is also the fact that severing Crimea’s connection with the Russian mainland is a key goal of the Ukrainian military. This would isolate Russian troops in Ukrainian occupied territory from resupply. The Russian military is extremely worried that this could happen.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin is just as worried about keeping the image of Crimea intact. The peninsula is Putin’s own Potemkin village, a place where the fiction of normalcy is cultivated despite the war creeping ever closer. The beaches in Crimea were already as empty as they have been at any time since Russia illegally occupied the peninsula nine years ago. Even in a society as militarized as Russia, the average Russian on holiday does not want to spend time sitting on a beach within sight of recently constructed fortifications. Rather than shark attacks, tourists must now worry about drone and missile attacks. They also could get trapped on the peninsula and find themselves stuck in the equivalent of a no man’s land.
The Kerch Bridge attack is symptomatic of the Pandora’s Box of problems that the Putin regime’s mismanagement of the war has unleashed. This includes the Prigozhin mutiny, which has caused upheaval in the Russian Military’s high command. There is also the continuing Ukrainian counteroffensive, which should be the regime’s prime focus. Instead, Putin is distracted by internal difficulties and threats to the homeland. One of his current objectives is weeding out those he deems guilty of disloyalty to his regime. This is easier said than done.
The Prigozhin mutiny raised uncomfortable questions about who was for, against, and indifferent to the Kremlin. This will be difficult and threatens to backfire. Putin’s purges may rid the military of competent commanders, something the Kremlin can ill afford to lose at this point in the war. The Kerch Bridge attack only adds to the problems. The attack exposed the regime’s inability to protect the bridge. And the attacks are going to keep on coming. Each of the above problems involve the Russian Military High command and its Kremlin overseers. Thus far, that combination has been both incompetent and toxic.
Connection to Crimea – Kerch Bridge before the war (Credit: Alexx1979)
The Bridge – High Value Target
Putin immediately talked tough in response to the attack. Just as he did after the Prigozhin mutiny. Words are one thing, actions quite another. For Putin, image was everything prior to the war. The problem is that military affairs demand substance rather than style. Smoke and mirrors can no longer hide the obvious. The military is in defensive mode. Even so, they still cannot stop an attack on the piece of infrastructure most critical to their war effort. Symbolically and strategically the Kerch Bridge has no other equal in the war. That makes it a high value target. One that the Kremlin cannot afford to lose, and the Ukrainian military will continue to target. Whether the bridge remains standing, only time will tell. One thing is for certain. The bridge will remain in the crosshairs of conflict, as will Crimea.
Coming soon: The Enemy Within – Putin’s Final Nuclear Option (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #331)
Europe Between East And West 