The Power Vacuum – Russia Receding/Turkey Rising In The Caucasus & Central Asia (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #218)

Two strongmen met in Kazakhstan, but one is now much stronger than the other. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met in Astana on September 12th with Vladimir Putin at the clunkily named Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia. The balance of power between the two has been turned in Erdogan’s favor due to Putin’s disastrous decision to invade Ukraine and the continued failures of the Russian military on the battlefield there. It is cliche to say that power abhors a vacuum, but like all cliches it is built upon a foundation of truth.

Erdogan seeks to expand Turkish influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia with nations predominantly populated by Turkic peoples. Meanwhile, Putin grasps for a lifeline to save his faltering regime and salvage a semblance of success from his ill-conceived war. To that end, Erdogan is said to be offering his services as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia. Erdogan is not doing this out of the goodness of his heart or because he considers Putin a “dear friend”, as he often refers to him. Rather like all strongmen who play power politics, Erdogan sees an opportunity to promote his own interests at the expense of others. In this case, Erdogan can strengthen Turkish power in the region, while Russia is weakened by the war.

Geopolitical chess – Central Asia & the Caucasus

Geopolitical Chess – Filling The Void
The geopolitical chessboard in Central Asia and the Caucasus is in the process of undergoing its greatest transformation since the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the latter dissolved, no less than eight independent nations (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) arose from the ashes of that fallen empire. The process of nation building was schizoid and chaotic as these states attempted to establish themselves. This was particularly true during the 1990’s. Russia could not afford to assert itself in the region due to domestic difficulties. China was on the rise, but nowhere near as powerful as it is today. The western world led by the United States involved itself up to a point, especially with developing energy resources in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. The region’s geographical characteristics of land locked nations covered by massive mountain ranges and limitless steppe land defeated American attempts to assert greater influence.

Instead, westerners learned to ignore prolific human rights abuses, dictatorial governments and myriad ethnic conflicts to focus on shared economic and security (anti-terrorism post 9/11) interests. After Vladimir Putin rose to power and stabilized Russia, the Kremlin set about reasserting their authority in the region. They re-established old Soviet era economic ties and supported like-minded governments and rulers through financial inducements and military means. This drew many of these nations back into the Russian sphere of influence. Putin took every opportunity to project power showcasing Russian strength in the region.

One of the most striking examples of this occurred in 2008 when the Russian Army invaded Georgia. This led to the unseating of Georgia’s pro-western prime minister Mikhail Saakashvili and the creation of two pro-Russian separatist statelets in South Ossetia and Abkhazia on Georgia’s territory. In retrospect, this was a dress rehearsal for Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support for separatism that led to war in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine in 2014. Putin demonstrated that he would do everything possible to undermine pro-western governments being established in former Soviet territories. The Baltic states did not figure into this strategy, because by the time Putin took power, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, were too far gone for Russia to try and alter their democratic structure. Anywhere governance and institutions were weak, Russia was able to fill part of the void.

Shared interests – Recep Tayyip Erdogan with Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev

Shared Interests – The Turkic World
Putin’s efforts were largely successful in keeping the Caucasian and Central Asian states in the Russian sphere of influence. The greatest challenge to Russian influence came from a fellow authoritarian regime in China. Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative facilitated greater connections between China and the area, binding them through shared economic interests. China was able to finance projects and offer loans to nations in the region that would otherwise have been unavailable to them. This has led to major upgrades in infrastructure. Putin had little choice but to allow this. China’s economic might and powerful geopolitical position trumped Russia’s historical ties. From the Kremlin’s perspective this was easier to stomach since China’s government is anti-western and dictatorial. 

The other external threat to Russia in the region was and still is Erdogan’s Turkey. After the Turkish strongman cemented his power at home, he looked to the area as one where fellow Turkic peoples would welcome their ethnic brethren’s involvement. Erdogan envisaged a greater Turkish world with himself at the helm. His interest was somewhat different from Putin’s wants to create a neo-Russian empire. For Turkey, the massive energy resources found throughout the area are essential to their economic well-being and national security. Turkey has extremely limited energy resources. They import most of the fossil fuels which power their economy and keep the lights on in Anatolia. While Russia can provide them much of what they need, the Turks would rather deal with nations that are less powerful and more trustworthy. It gives them greater leverage in negotiating favorable trade and military deals. In turn, such states as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan see the Turks as leverage against undue Russian influence. Azerbaijan also has been able to hedge Turkish support to get the upper hand in their continuing struggle with Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Shifting strategies – Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin

Projecting Power – Centers of Influence
The Russian recession from the Caucasus and Central Asia is just beginning. Putin’s war in Ukraine has gravely weakened Russian influence in the region. China and Turkey are prepared to fill the vacuum in power. Erdogan’s positioning himself as a mediator in the Ukraine-Russia war is a master stroke of diplomacy that will strengthen Turkey’s foreign policy. The rewards could be vast. Turkey should be able to expand its influence over one of the world’s richest areas in natural resources. The Turks will be projecting power outward, while Russia will be focused on the internal tumult caused by Putin’s War in Ukraine.

Erdogan is cultivating Russia for trade and economic development as many of their more dynamic businessmen relocate their operations to Turkey where the business environment is much more congenial. With an election due to be held in Turkey next year, Erdogan needs help boosting the Turkish economy where inflation is running at the alarmingly high rate of eighty-four percent. In the near term, friendly relations with Russia can help Erdogan domestically. It is hard to believe that this friendship will prove enduring. Erdogan is using Putin to get what he wants. The weaker Putin gets, the more Erdogan will take. This is all part of a generational transformation in the regional balance of power that will accelerate in the years to come. 

Click here for: Declaration of Appeasement – Emmanuel Macron Goes Non-Nuclear (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #219)

“We don’t want another Chernobyl”– Crisis at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #165)

Less than a week ago, I wrote an article about the looming threats to the Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine. During the past week, that situation has spiraled into a full-blown crisis with the potential for a nuclear catastrophe not seen in Europe since the meltdown at Chernobyl in 1986. Since March, Russian military forces have occupied the facility while the Ukrainian personnel works under conditions of extreme stress. There have been many reports that the Russians have abused Ukrainian staff. This has made them workplace hostages. The plant employs 10,000 people and needs expert, around the clock vigilance to run properly. The Ukrainians have managed to keep the plant operational despite it being under constant attack the past several weeks. Nerves are frayed, as the odds of an accident

The Russian forces have used the area in and around the facility as a staging ground for artillery attacks on Ukrainian controlled cities and towns on the opposite side of the Dnipro River. They have also parked armored vehicles packed with explosives close to several of the reactors. The Russians have also been reportedly shelling the plant, though they accuse the Ukrainians of being responsible for these dangerous attacks. As the fighting has continued to ebb and flow around the plant, the chances that a catastrophic incident will occur continue to grow. The situation has now worsened to the point that the international community is trying to get involved. 

Crisis mismanagement – Russian soldier at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Mitigation Procedures – Putin’s Promises
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a couple of days ago in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. Erdogan has been acting as a de facto mediator between the two sides, but he was unequivocal about the threat at Zaporizhzhia when speaking to the media. Erdogan said, “We will discuss this issue with Mr. Putin, and we will ask him specifically for this so that Russia does its part in this regard as an important step for world peace. [Russians] need to take this step. Ukraine has both its own technical staff and its own military forces in Zaporizhzhia. And they are capable of securing safety with their technical staff and solders there,” He also added, “we don’t want another Chernobyl.” You know the situation is dire when a strongman such as Erdogan is advising caution and vigilance.

Erdogan is not the only one working to mitigate the situation. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – the United Nations’ nuclear monitoring agency – has asked to inspect the facilities so they can assess the threat. Russia has been unwilling to allow them access, but a potential breakthrough might have just occurred. French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Vladimir Putin who has agreed to allow an IAEA mission for an on-site inspection. Of course, a few days before the war started Macron is also the one who supposedly secured a promise from Putin of a summit with President Biden to address his concerns about Ukraine and avoid war. A few days later, Russia invaded Ukraine. Believing Putin’s promises is what got Europe in this mess to begin with. Putin cannot be taken at his word. In the case of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, it is certainly good to hear that the Kremlin agreed to an inspection, but until the IAEA mission is on-site, Putin’s promise should be viewed with skepticism.

Blast radius – Apartment building in Nikopol hit by Russian shelling from Zaporizhzhia

Destructive Distraction – Time For A Meltdown
The possibility that one or more of the six reactors at Zaporizhzhia could have a meltdown is growing by the day. The main fear is not that a wayward shell will hit one of the reactors, but instead that the Russians will disconnect the plant from the Ukrainian grid and switch the plant over to their grid. If the plant’s backup power generators failed while the switch was taking place, the reactors could not be sufficiently cooled. A meltdown might occur within an hour. The switch would also deny electricity to one-fifth of Ukraine. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources have published maps showing the potential geographical spread of radioactive contamination in the event of a meltdown. Depending on which way the wind is blowing radiation could affect a wide swath of Eastern and Central Europe. That is a situation no one wants, except maybe Vladimir Putin and those in his regime who have everything to lose by a Ukrainian victory in the war.

This begs the question of why Putin would risk a nuclear incident at Zaporizhzhia? One reason is that it would distract from the Russian Army’s failure to make any gains on the battlefield since the second week of July. Better for Putin if the Russian public focuses on a nuclear catastrophe, especially one that the Putin regime would say was caused by Ukrainians shelling the plant. The Kremlin has already floated the idea that the Ukrainians will do this and blame it on the Russians. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians say the Russians will do this and blame it on Ukrainians.

False flag incidents are a long-standing strategy of the Putin regime that many historians and Kremlin watchers believe goes all the way back to the 1999 Moscow and Volgodonsk apartment bombings which were blamed on Chechen terrorists. These incidents led to the Second Chechen War, the successful prosecution of which helped Putin solidify his control over Russia. If true, blowing up four apartment buildings in the interest of consolidating power is bad enough, but such an operation involving the world’s third largest nuclear power plant would be an unprecedented catastrophe. Doing this would take an unfathomable level of malevolence.

Considering all the other massacres and atrocities that have been perpetrated by Russian forces during the war, a false flag incident that occurs at Zaporizhzhia would not be particularly shocking. Another reason Putin might order his forces to create a nuclear incident at Zaporizhzhia would be to halt Ukraine’s military momentum which has put a stop to Russia’s advance in the Donbas, made recent gains in the south while carrying out successful attacks on Russian bases and ammunition depots in Crimea. A radioactive cloud looming over Ukraine would be a game changer. Combat would likely come to a complete halt as measures were taken to protect the affected population. The situation would be without precedent. The finger pointing would be fast and furious from both sides.

We don’t want another Chernobyl – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with Volodymyr Zelensky

Bad Decisions – Putin’s Logic
For those who might consider the Russian perspective that Ukraine is planning to attack their own nuclear power plant they should consider the following. Why would the Ukrainians attack a power facility that is a vital source of electricity for millions of their citizens? Furthermore, why would they cause a meltdown that would contaminate part of their country? Ukrainians know better than most how a nuclear power plant can render a large area uninhabitable for hundreds, if not thousands of years. The Chernobyl disaster did just that in 1986, a portion of northern Ukraine has been depopulated ever since. A Ukrainian attack on Zaporizhzhia makes no logical sense. Of course, the opposite is true for Vladimir Putin. If logic was involved with his decisions, then he would not have invaded Ukraine in the first place. We can only hope he keeps his promise on an IAEA inspection of Zaporizhzhia, but don’t count it.

Click here for: The Third Front – Crimea Under Attack (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #166)