Back In Business – Prigozhin: The Sequel (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #334b)

I was never a fan of sequels. Then again, who is? It is axiomatic that the second film in a series is almost always worse than a famous first effort. They often leave viewers puzzled as to why another film was made. Sequels are derivative and redundant. The plot is no longer original. Characters morph into something they were not originally meant to be. The story arcs are prone to odd contortions while trying to maintain continuity with the original. These make little sense and are either ridiculous or predictable. And yet, audiences still pack theaters to watch sequels. Very rarely do they equal the crowds that show up for the first film, but enough go to make sequels a highly profitable enterprise. If the original film was good enough, people will come back to experience a semblance of the same thing once again. Nevertheless, it is universally acknowledged that sequels pale in comparison to the original film.

Seat at the table – Yevgeny Prigozhin and Vladimir Putin

Acting Out – The Plot Thickens
There is a sequel now playing at the highest levels of Russian politics. Last week it had a world premiere at the hotel in St. Petersburg. Appearing on the not so red carpet was Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose last starring role was an unforgettable performance as the leader of a band of malevolent mutineers in the form of his Wagner Group ensemble. Mutiny on the Don captured the world’s attention on June 23^rd and 24^th as Prigozhin and an unlikely band of war criminals came closer than anyone to threatening Vladimir Putin’s grip on power. Audiences across the world were astonished by Prigozhin and his less than merry band of mercenaries as they acted out an ad hoc scheme to march into Moscow. Once there, they planned to give the highest echelons of the Russian military a first-class ass kicking.

This was incredible theater that kept audiences gripped to Telegram channels and Twitter accounts, the social media services that endlessly stream war. Everyone was glued to their iPhones and Androids as they watched Mutiny on the Don until it turned out to be a Russian ruse. They had just spent 36 hours watching what they thought was a rebellion before the storyline took a turn towards the sublime when the whole thing was suddenly called off. This was a deeply unsatisfying conclusion. Audiences were left disappointed. This left the chance of a sequel slim to none. Prigozhin’s career as a mutineer was done. His future would most likely be arrest, imprisonment and something the Kremlin could call an accident. He was thought to be as good as dead. It was assumed that his Wagner mercenary forces would be relegated to a backlot, where they would become cannon fodder on demand.

No one came out of this performance looking good. The Kremlin was exposed as a sideshow. The performance of its long-time lead, Vladimir Putin, was universally panned by critics. He would continue in his role as Russian President, but his days of the world’s fate were over. His career had been waning for some time. Audiences had once seen Putin as the epitome of power. He was now exposed as a feeble and floundering autocrat well past his prime. Nothing to see here.  The slow, inexorable decline of Putin would be best if it happened off-screen. That was where he had been for most of the mutiny anyway. The one time he appeared, Putin came across as a hectoring incompetent.

Survival instinct – Yevgeny Prigozhin

Perilous Plans – Own Worst Enemies
As for Prigozhin, he had ultimately proven to be just as much of a disappointment. Villains should go down in a blaze of glory, sticking with their sinister ways until they flame out. Prigozhin turned out to be a less than masterful manipulator. He could not ultimately follow through with his plan. He decided to save himself rather than pursue power at any cost. Prigozhin had promised so much and delivered so little. A sequel with him starring was the furthest thing from anyone’s mind. Viewers do not want to see characters acting like their own worst enemies. Prigozhin had previously been seen as wily, malevolent, and sadistic. Now he looked like a hapless coward, self-obsessed and foolishly ambitious. Not the stuff stars are made of. It was time to put Prigozhin out to pasture. Then the comeback began. Putin and Prigozhin took it upon themselves to start a new storyline. This one would be almost as improbable as Mutiny on the Don. Rather than being run off the set, Putin is allowing Prigozhin to return to the spotlight.

Prigozhin’s reentrance to the dregs of Russian society came via the 2023 Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg. The event was less sensational than it sounds, especially compared to last year. Fewer African leaders and officials were in attendance. Putin has managed to upset many of them by reneging on the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Stopping Ukrainian grain exports to Africa is a receipt for famine. This threatens long suffering states both north and south of the Sahara with widespread hunger and unrest. African officials that stayed away from the summit did not want to be seen in league with Russia. The upshot was yet another underwhelming performance on the international stage for Putin, whose career continues in perpetual decline.

Taken by surprise – Vladimir Putin

Customer Service – Taking Care of Business
The one aspect of the summit which caused a sensation was the reappearance of Prigozhin. One of the photos shared (obviously intentional) showed the mutineer-in-chief gripping the hand of the Central African Republic’s Protocol Officer. Prigozhin looked well rested and ready to do business. In blue jeans and a polo shirt, Prigozhin’s casual dress belied someone who seemed to be enjoying himself. And why not? He had not only managed to survive his failed mutiny, but Prigozhin was back dealing with one of his best customers. The Central African Republic’s government has availed itself of Wagner Group’s services to the detriment of its citizens. Prigozhin is back to pursuing his business interests. A sequel looks to already be in the works. While it is doubtful that Prigozhin’s return will live up to expectations, the story continues whether anyone wants it too or not. What happens next is anyone’s guess? This sequel might not be good, but it will certainly be intriguing.

Click here for: Hitting Them Where It Hurts – Ukrainian Attacks on Chonhar Bridge & Moscow (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #335)

Let’s Make A Deal – Prigozhin’s Return & Putin’s Folly (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #334a)

Two things came to mind when I saw a photo of Yevgeny Prigozhin shaking hands with an official of the Central African Republic at a hotel in St. Petersburg, Russia. The first was that mutiny has never looked so pleasant. The other was how the mighty have fallen. The pleasant demeanor is in reference to Prigozhin 2.0. The post-mutineer man about town, still wheeling and dealing in sinister fashion. The second reference is to the decline, but not yet the fall of the man Prigozhin’s mutiny irreparably weakened, Vladimir Putin.

Back in business – Yevgeny Prigozhin with an official of the Central African Republic in St Petersburg

Lost Highway – Russian Road Trip
Only five weeks ago, Prigozhin was enjoying raucous support in Rostov-On-Don. He and his fellow mutineers followed this up with a march on Moscow. They were on the ultimate Russian road trip. Their destination was wherever they could find Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the Commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov. Along the way they shot down some helicopters and planes of the Russian military while enjoying an avenue of advance that looked like it would lead all the way to Moscow. The mercenaries, who had previously been seen as nothing more than the essence of Russian malevolence in Ukraine, were on the verge of becoming conquering heroes of their own country. Ready and willing to make command changes in the Russian military at the point of a gun barrel or go down in flames.

Meanwhile, the whereabouts of Vladimir Putin were an open question. Finally, he made an angry speech, promising to put an end to the mutiny. Everyone knows what happened next. Prigozhin was talked out of his revolt by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko with promises of being given a safe haven in Belarus. This turnabout in fortunes was just as astonishing as the march on Moscow. No one could quite believe what happened. Making sense of it was an exercise in speculation about shadowy machinations in the Kremlin. The result of this seriously ridiculous string of events was that neither Prigozhin nor Putin was a winner. The mutiny was either a serious threat to Putin’s rule or a shameless charade by a rogue elite desperately trying to maintain his wealth and power. It turned out to be a combination of both.

Dubious intentions – Vladimir Putin at Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg

Marked Man – Putting Prigozhin In His Place
In the days and weeks which followed the mutiny, speculation was rife as to the whereabouts of Prigozhin. There were reports that he was lurking around St. Petersburg, seen in Moscow, and hanging out at a hotel near Minsk. Kremlinologists felt that Prigozhin had done himself in with the mutiny. They opined that this was something Putin would never tolerate. It was bad enough that a princeling undermined Putin’s rule in the middle of a war gone horribly wrong. Making it that much worse was the mutiny occurring just a couple of weeks after Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive began. The last thing that Putin needed was yet another problem. Surely, he would put Prigozhin in his place which would be in a coffin six feet underground.

Putin had shown signs of barely controlled anger in the televised appearances he made during and just after the mutiny. Though he did not specifically name Prigozhin during these appearances, it was obvious who Putin was referring to when he used the word “treason.” This was tantamount to a death sentence being rendered on Prigozhin before the Russian public. In the past, Putin has acted as prosecutor, judge, and jury on anyone who threatened to undermine his rule. It was assumed he would do the same thing to Prigozhin. The wayward henchman would either be murdered by the security services or put in prison for the rest of what would most likely be a very short existence.

Prigozhin was thought to be a man living on borrowed time. If there is one thing Putin has valued above all else during his long and murderous career, it has been loyalty. Prigozhin and Wagner mercenaries had committed an unforgivable sin. They were now being labeled as enemies of the Russian state. Putin was getting ready to dole out his own merciless brand of justice. Dire consequences were sure to follow, or so everyone thought. It was not to be.

Belarus bound – Wagner mercenaries

Wheeling & Dealing – Less Than All Powerful
In another unpredictable turn of events, the Kremlin’s chief spokesman and Putin mouthpiece, Dimitry Peskov, stated that Putin had met with Wagner Group commanders, including Prigozhin, in the Kremlin. Rather than having them arrested or murdered, Putin played a Kremlin version of Let’s Make A Deal. This extremely dangerous game has been played many times before over the last 23 years with Putin always the winner. In this case, he offered Wagner commanders and their forces a couple of options. One was an opportunity to join the Russian military and fight for the same organization they held in utter contempt. Or they could go to Belarus and do whatever Lukashenko had in mind for them. Prigozhin would no longer lead them into battle in Ukraine. Furthermore, they would no longer fight in Ukraine. They chose the Belarusian option. With this, Prigozhin’s power was seemingly checked, but if so, why was Putin allowing him into the gilded halls of the Kremlin? And why was Prigozhin being seen in St. Petersburg and Moscow? He was still a free man.

In this case, the all-powerful and autocrat Putin turned out to be nothing of the sort. He was still in charge, but Putin compromised his own position. Why he did this is not clear. Putin must have believed that he had to make a deal. No one had come to his aid during the mutiny. Killing Prigozhin might lead to another uprising. This was a chance that Putin could not afford to take. For someone who prides himself on projecting power and has spent the 21st century cultivating a tough guy image, this was humiliating. This was the latest in a long list of embarrassments that Putin has suffered since the full-scale of Ukraine began.

Prigozhin and Wagner were given an exit strategy and they took it. Prigozhin was thought to be done in Russia. In a televised address, Putin let all of Russia in a not so well-kept secret, specifically that the Russian government had supplied Wagner Group with massive financial support. He did not have to say Prigozhin’s name for everyone to know what he meant. The chief mutineer had robbed the state’s coffers and then turned on his donor. State television also got in on the anti-Prigozhin propaganda, taking their own shots. Prigozhin was on his way to becoming persona non grata. This was the way Putin dealt with Prigozhin and the mutiny. Truth be told, he was not dealing with it at all. The one positive was that Prigozhin would be out of Russia. At least that was what everyone thought. No one thought there would be a sequel to the sublime show the world had just witnessed. They were wrong.

Click here for: Back In Business – Prigozhin: The Sequel (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #334b)

Terminal Decline – Vladimir Putin Version 2020 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #328b)

The signs of fragility in Vladimir Putin’s regime has been exposed by the war in Ukraine. The military can do no right, endemic corruption has rotted every Russian institution to its core, and the media has long since ceased being anything more than a mouthpiece for the regime. These traits have manifested themselves in a series of astonishing military debacles from the Battle of Kyiv to the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Region and the Russian Army’s withdrawal from Kherson. One humiliation has been followed by another. And the situation continues to get worse.

The Prigozhin mutiny showed the world just how shallow the Putin regime had become. Its support inside Russia, once deep and all-encompassing, was now shallow and dubious. A couple of weeks after the mutiny stunned the world, the Kremlin’s spokesperson Dimitry Peskov made an equally stunning announcement. Peskov, a man who makes pathological liars look honest, felt the need to announce that Putin met with Prigozhin and 35 Wagner commanders to give them his assessment of their performance. This included references to their conduct in the mutiny. With this revelation, it seems Putin has reduced himself to the role of middle manager, giving those who vehemently disagree with his prosecution of the war a performance review. This is Vladimir Putin Version 2020, old, tired, out of touch and forced by circumstance to assimilate internal enemies.

Grim outlook – Vladimir Putin Version 2020

Unjust Rewards – A Forced Compromise
Putin’s meeting with the Wagnerites was a Kremlin version of “can’t we all get along.” The song “Why can’t we be friends?” would have been an appropriate soundtrack accompanying Putin’s assessment of Wagner’s performance. This was the loser-in-chief lecturing the only Russian force to win a battle since the war’s initial months. Of course, Wagner’s victory at Bakhmut got the majority of its forces shot to pieces. Their victory was pyrrhic at best. The mutineers felt they deserved respect and a larger say in the war’s conduct. Like the rest of Russia, the only thing Prigozhin and his Wagner troops got more of was Vladimir Putin. An unjust reward for their mutinous behavior.

As for Putin, he was, is, and will continue to be the great loser in the mutiny. Prigozhin and an estimated 5,000 of his soldiers did irreparable damage to Putin’s rule. In the space of just twenty-four hours, they undermined the foundation of his regime. There was no need for this to happen, but Putin let it happen because he did not know what else to do when faced with a challenge from the hard right. The fact that Putin decided to meet with the mutineers seems shocking, until one realizes that he had little choice. Failure to deal with the mutineers by compromise makes Putin look weak. This is the worst thing that could happen to him. The fact that it occurred just as Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive was getting started has turned the entire saga into Putin’s worst nightmare.

Compliments of the chef – Yevgeny Prigozhin serves Vladimir Putin back when they were friends

Bad News – The Hits Keep Coming
2023 has brought Putin one bad piece of news after another. This has included a failed offensive, sustained western support for Ukraine in the form of more lethal and technologically superior weaponry, a continued high rate of Russian losses at the front, an enlarged NATO, murmurs of domestic discontent with the war, and little more than verbal support from Russia’s few allies. The most incredible thing is not that all this happened to Putin, but because of Putin. His poor decision making has led to this state of affairs. Ironically, Putin’s inability to make difficult decisions is now exacerbating it. The next most incredible thing is that the Russian army continues to fight, even when they have no idea what they are fighting for. Keeping Putin in power is not an inspiring goal for Russian forces, but that is what they have reduced to fighting for.

Why are Russian forces in Ukraine? Putin has failed to answer that question except with his usual incendiary accusations of faux Ukrainian fascism and a conspiracy of the western world to encroach on Russia’s sphere of influence. In an astonishing turn of events, the Putin regime’s sphere of influence inside Russia is now waning. Their influence in geopolitics has been severely curtailed.  NATO is ascendant. Finland has joined the alliance and Sweden will any day now. Ukraine is now on track to eventually join NATO as well as the European Union, Putin wanted to weaken Ukraine, but instead he managed to unite it and at the same time, fatally weakened his own regime. Everything in the regime is now in flux.

Alone at the bottom – Valdimir Putin with Russian military officers in the background

Questionable Loyalties – Survival Instincts
Loyalties have been called into question, leadership is lacking at every level of politics and the military. The economy is teetering. Ukraine is being feted this week at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. In the past, Russia was menacing Eastern Europe. Now NATO is solidifying a 21^st century Eastern Bloc against Russia. Plans are being set in place to provide a more credible military deterrent in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Putin is floundering. He no longer projects confidence. Putin looks like a man waiting for something worse to happen. Putin 2020 will likely be the last version of him we see. His regime is in decline. This should make him more dangerous. Judging by his response to the mutiny it only makes him look more hapless and helpless. Whatever else happens to Putin and his regime in 2023, it is not likely to be good. Putin has nothing to look forward to during the rest of the year, but more problems.

For the first time ever, Putin is extremely vulnerable. Judging by the first half of the year, he should be worried. Putin Version 2020 is doing damage control, Russia’s elites are in survival mode, the Russian military is on the defensive and the populace is indifferent. This has all the hallmarks of the Brezhnev era in the Soviet Union, a long, slow decline. The one complicating factor in this scenario is the war in Ukraine. How Putin handles the war, or more to this point decides not to handle the war, will go a long way in deciding the future of Russia. As for Putin’s future, that has already been decided. It is bleak.

Coming soon: Show of Strength – Erdogan Turns To The West (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #329)

The Show Must Go On – Vladimir Putin Version 2020 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #328a)

2022 was a terrible year for Vladimir Putin, 2023 is looking even worse. Putin has now faced down a mutiny. He did not defeat it with his usual weapons of choice such as open windows, poison, or radioactive substances. Instead, Putin feigned outrage and then proceeded to turn a cold shoulder toward the culprits. Belarus’ usually hapless dictator, Aleksandr Lukashenko, ended up bailing out Putin. At least that is the story for now. This narrative is liable to change. Unfortunately, change in the Russian leadership looks unlikely to occur. Nevertheless, lack of a decisive response from Putin confused Kremlinologists. This was out of character for a man who spent two decades cultivating a tough guy persona. Putin usually deals with those who oppose him by bankrupting, imprisoning, and sometimes murdering them. In this case, he did nothing of the sort.

Compliments of the chef – Vladimir Putin & Yevgeny Prigozhin together in earlier times (Credit: Government of the Russian Federation)

The Aftermath – Mutiny On The Don
The post-mutiny plot thickened this week when it was revealed that Putin met with Yevgeny Prigozhin and 35 other Wagner commanders, just five days after the latter and his disgruntled band of mutineers took over Russia’s Southern Military District in Rostov-On-Don without firing a shot. The Wagner troops were subsequently given VIP treatment by crowds of gawking locals watching in wide eyed amazement as events unfolded. The mutineers then proceeded to head north on a lightning strike that would put the Barbarossa blitzkrieg to shame. They only met light resistance on their journey towards Moscow. A small aerial force from the Russian military made a futile attempt to stop the mutineers. This only resulted in yet another embarrassing loss for Russian military forces in a war filled with them. They also encountered some tepidly formed highway barricades and torn up sections of road courtesy of a steam shovel sent to draw a line in the pavement. This less than serious effort to protect the regime was not going to stop battle hardened mercenaries determined to sort out the Russian military leadership. It was going to take something much more sublime, a phone call from Lukashenko.

Two hundred kilometers outside of Moscow, Lukashenko intervened by talking Prigozhin down from the ledge. This was not a bromance made in malevolence, more a marriage of convenience between two men whose livelihoods depended upon it. What deal was negotiated did not make everything in Putin world right again. Instead, it allowed for everything to go back to abnormal. The entire ordeal was surreal and beggared belief. If this had been a movie, no one would have believed the plotline. The actors were unable to competently play their parts. Their performance was lacking in sincerity. Prigozhin looked like a deadbeat dad out to avenge those who had stopped enabling his bad behavior. The child support payments were going to stop, but in this case Prigozhin was the child.

Mutiny on the Don – Crowd in Rostov-on-Don with Wagner Tank (Credit: Fargoh)

High Stakes Soap Opera – Days of Our Dictator
The times Putin appeared during the mutiny and in its immediate aftermath, he looked as though he had aged twenty years in twenty-four hours. Not that long ago he was posing shirtless in the Siberian wilderness with a fishing rod in his hand. Now he was reduced to being a bloated stuffed suit while angrily addressing the Russian nation. While watching Putin fulminate during his appearances, it was hard not to get the stinging suspicion that he was talking more to himself than the Russian people. Putin was doing a bad job of convincing himself that he still had what it takes to administer his preferred brand of vindicative justice. This was problematical because If Putin could not convince himself, then how could he convince his fellow Russians. Putin has become a stranger to his former self, and Russia has become a geopolitical basket case. One that the rest of the world watches in disbelief. It is like a high stakes soap opera, “Days of our Dictator” starring a regime on the verge of collapse.

This was not the end of Vladimir Putin, but it strangely seemed somehow worse for him. A show of weakness that portends similar shenanigans to keep up the appearance of control. The curtain has been pulled back and the wizard is shown to be a mere mortal rifling through his grab bag of machinations, searching for something that works. Rather than the new and improved Vladimir Putin ready to fight off the western world, we have the old and irritated Putin worrying himself sick over whether his vast security apparatus could hold off a former hot dog salesman turned revolutionary leader. No one could make this stuff up. Because this Russia, such bizarre behavior can be found in its history books. It is a way of political life that keeps repeating itself with entirely new casts of characters. The characters in this latest surreal scenario look like they are ready for a Russian version of the Rocky Horror Picture Show. All this would be utterly ridiculous if these same characters were not continuing to prosecute the largest conventional war in Europe since 1945. The leading man may be a mere shell of his former menacing self, but he is still in control of a massive nuclear arsenal. This, despite the fact he cannot stop 5,000 mercenaries going on a joyless ride for the ages.

Version 2020 – Vladimir Putin (Credit: kremlin.ru)

Self-Deception – Shadowy Ways
What does all this malevolent absurdity have to do with Vladimir Putin? Well for starters, everything. The world is now experiencing Putin Version 2020. A much different Putin from earlier versions. Putin 2000 was the supposed cagey spymaster with his shadowy ways making Russia a great power again through the power of petrodollars. Then there was Putin 2010, an unkinder, harsher version of the supposed master strategist who unhinged the rules based international order by taking back Crimea and prosecuting a nasty pseudo-proxy war in eastern Ukraine. This version of Putin relished his malevolent role, working to undermine the western world. He outmaneuvered one western leader after another. He bought off Gerhard Schroder, shook down Angela Merkel, wrongfooted Barack Obama, humored Donald Trump, and fooled George W. Bush.

This supposedly made Putin a master strategist, but no one ever asked who was doing the deceiving. Was it Putin or did these leaders deceive themselves? Unspoken fears and sublime naivety helped Putin in his years long campaign to convince westerners to give him respect “or else.” Then Putin Version 2020 showed them what “or else” meant when he ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That decision has backfired to such an extent that it is doubtful if there will be a version beyond Putin 2020. That is the consequence and ultimately the question surrounding his war in Ukraine.

Click here for: Terminal Decline – Vladimir Putin Version 2020 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #328b)

Russia & The Mutineers – Cracking The Façade (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #325)

At a certain point somewhere between the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Prigozhin mutiny, observers had ceased to be shocked by the behavior of Vladimir Putin and his regime. Whether it was the murder of Ukrainian civilians in Bucha, the siege and destruction of Mariupol, indiscriminate missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, kidnapping of Ukrainian children and their forced relocation to Russia, assorted nuclear threats, the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam and resultant catastrophic flooding or countless incidents that violated the established rules of war, the shock caused by Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine had long since worn off. The war seemed to be grinding on into a prolonged stalemate. With Russian forces drowning in a quagmire of their own making and the Ukrainian counteroffensive off to a slow start, the war was growing more stagnant by the day. This was deceptive. 

Mutiny on the Don – Russian civilians & Wagner Group mercenaries in Rostov-on-Don (Credit: Fargoh)

Threat Assessment – Instability & Insurrection
Nothing is ever as it seems in Putin’s Russia. That has been especially true since the war in Ukraine began. Trying to keep up the appearance of confidence and control had been difficult, but not impossible. At least not until the events of last week. Behind the Kremlin’s façade of stability, forces of mutiny were at work that threatened the regime. A rebellion was brewing as Yevgeny Prigozhin made plans to save his Wagner mercenary forces from assimilation into the Russian military. If this happened it would do grave damage to Prigozhin’s influence on the war, as well as his many nefarious business interests. Prigozhin took to plotting a way to get at his two main enemies. Western intelligence sources believe Prigozhin planned to kidnap Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov.

On numerous occasions, Prigozhin had vocally blamed them for gross misconduct of the war. He also attempted to cultivate the support of commanders in the Russian Military, most prominently Sergei Surovinikin. It has now been revealed that Surovikin had prior knowledge of Prigozhin’s plans. The mutiny did not go as planned, but it still lasted 24 astonishing hours. Between the mutiny’s start and its end on a road 200 kilometers south of Moscow so many shocking things happened, that even the most jaded observers of Russian affairs could not help but be astonished. The mutineers, Putin and the Kremlin put on a performance that will be remembered for a long time to come.

March for justice – Wagner route towards Moscow (Credit: Rr016)

The March For Justice – Mutiny On The Don
The mutiny started but did not end with Prigozhin who decided to take an estimated 5,000 Wagner mercenaries on what he termed a “march for justice.” This nom de guerre for the mutiny would be laughable if not for the fact that Prigozhin was somewhat successful. The march went according to plan in Rostov-on-Don where Wagner drove unimpeded into the center of the city, entered Russia’s Southern Military District headquarters without so much as firing a shot. Prigozhin then had a video recorded while he demanded to see Shoigu and Gerasimov. Both had predictably vanished. The most shocking part of this was how Prigozhin was met with Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister and a Deputy Chief of Staff while everyone else just stood around waiting to see what would happen. No one fired a shot.

This part of the mutiny was revealing. It was as though anyone with their own private army could takeover one of Russia’s most important military headquarters and meet with zero resistance. The lack of resistance would be a continuing theme. The military and security forces in Russia were in a wait and see mode. Some Wagner troops stayed put at the headquarters, while Prigozhin and others headed up the highway towards Voronezh. Along the way they had a clear lane for what looked to be a run all the way to Moscow. Resistance from the military and security forces was tepid at best. One violent incident did occur with an aerial assault on the Wagner convoy. The mutineers shot several helicopters and an airborne command center down, then continued along their merry way. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin was mostly missing in action except for a five-minute screed at which he turned on his former protégé Prigozhin. The subtext of Putin’s short speech was that there would be deadly consequences for the mutineers. Well maybe.

Putin is believed to have fled Moscow for St. Petersburg. A showdown of some sort looked to be in the works. That is if the Wagner convoy could avoid being delayed by such masterfully designed barriers as holes being dug in the highway by a steam shovel and buses parked in the road. This did little to Wagner troops armed with modern military weaponry, much of it given to them by the government they now threatened to upend. Just when things looked like they were going to get ultra-violent, Prigozhin called off the mutiny. A deal had been brokered by one of the most undiplomatic leaders in Europe, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko. The latter had been a mere puppet of Putin prior to the mutiny, now he was the strongman’s savior. Prigozhin would go to Belarus, Wagner troops could go with him or join the Russian military and Putin could come out of hiding to make another useless speech. One that according to his spokesman Dmitry Peskov, would decide the future of Russia.

Broken relationship – Vladimir Putin & Yevgeny Prigozhin when they were friends (Credit: Government of the Russian Federation)

Comedy of Errors – Only In Russia
The entire episode was nothing short of madness. No one could have sold a script to Hollywood with that storyline. The first thing that comes to mind is, “only in Russia.” This would be a dark comedy, if only the stakes were not so high. Russia has one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals. The idea that a bunch of mercenaries led by a sadist might come anywhere close to taking power in Russia is chilling in the extreme. Putin has been weakened to the point that any reassertion of control threatens another rebellion. Oddly, because he is still seen as the best guarantor of stability, Putin will probably garner enough support to stay in power.

How Putin tries to recover from the mutiny will be closely watched. There is no doubt he has been severely weakened, but there are few alternatives to Putin. What does it say about the situation in Russia when Vladimir Putin is the best option? This is a man who has weakened Russia to an extent not since the early 1990’s. His hold on power is increasingly tenuous. Russia is now closer to collapse than it has been since the dark days of Boris Yeltsin’s presidency. On top of this, the Kremlin continues to prosecute a war that they can neither win nor exit. The Russians have really outdone themselves with this latest act. What comes next is anyone’s guess and that includes those in charge. Those who now wonder how bad it can get in Russia should know one thing. It will only get worse.