Years of Attrition – Running In Place: 1915/16 & 2023/? (Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine #359b)

It is 1915 all over again. That date could just as easily be changed to 1916. Those two years are the most anonymous in the history of World War I. It is much easier to remember the year in which the war started. I cannot count how many times I have read about the beautiful European summer of 1914 which was abruptly interrupted by the Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo. This was then followed by the summer long march to war. 1917 is another year from the war that has gotten plenty of recognition due to the Russian Revolution. So has 1918. We were taught in school that the armistice was signed “at the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month.” That numerical symmetry made November 11, 1918, easy to remember. As for 1915 and 1916, they act as outliers of wartime anonymity. Bleak periods marked by muddy trenches, shellshock, and senseless loss of life.

The only people likely to recall what happened in 1915 and 1916 are historians or military history buffs. For them, those years included the Battles of the Somme and Verdun on the Western Front and the Brusilov Offensive on the Eastern Front. These battles, like the campaigns which accompanied them, failed to bring about a decisive result. While one side or the other may have gained a tactical or even a strategic victory, it did little to alter the overall trajectory of the war. The best that can be said about such battles and campaigns is that they eroded the defender’s capabilities. Unfortunately, they eroded the aggressor’s capabilities even more. This was part of a long, hard slog of death and destruction that would not end for a couple of more years.

    No man’s land – Scene from the Battle of Bakhmut (Credit: Mil.gov.ua)

Wasted Years – The War Rages On
1915 and 1916 are the wasted years of World War I. Periods when the war stagnated, rather than stopped. This stalemate only served to prolong the war. There are parallels with the Ukraine-Russia War. 2023 was a year when tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides lost their lives in offensive operations that gained very little ground. The war is now at a stalemate with neither side strong enough to carry out a successful offensive.  2023 was 1915, 2024 could be 1916. The beginning of the war has become distant, the future looks limitless.

There is little doubt that in the near-term Ukraine and Russia will get weaker in a lengthening war. There will be strains felt not only on the battlefield, but throughout their respective societies. The next year will serve to further increase hardship on both combatant nations. The situation is bleak enough that it can make even those most fervently pro-Ukraine pause and wonder if the current situation might be as good as it will get for them.

Much the same could be said for the Russians, who while having an advantage in men and material, continue to display an inability to conduct successful offensive operations. The stalemate raises the same question that confronted the Great Powers during World War I. When is a less than ideal peace preferable to the gamble of future military operations which might erode one side or the other’s ability to sustain the war. The corollary is why do both sides insist on further damaging their future for minimal gains at best? Parallels with World War I are useful in understanding why the two sides keep fighting despite the war looking increasingly unwinnable. They are in the same position the Great Powers were in during World War I.

Bombed out – Residential building in Avdiivka, Ukraine (Credit: National Police of Ukraine)

Fighting On – Going In For The Kill
A parallel can be drawn between Ukraine in 2023 and France during the First World War. The same can be done for Russia and the German Empire. Ukraine, like France, suffered an invasion. This caused both to lose a large swath of economically productive territory. It also left large numbers of their civilians in the hands of aggressors. In trying to expel the invaders, both have incurred frightening levels of casualties. No politician would dare to call for a ceasefire after such sacrifices even if it could be in the national interest. It would lock in the aggressor’s gains. This means that Ukraine, just like France, will continue to fight. The alternative looks worse.

At the same time, the longer Ukraine fights the more men and material they will lose. Unlike Russia, Ukraine does not have a large pool of conscripts or volunteers to draw from. Each one they lose is much harder to replace. Continuing to fight the war will only exacerbate this problem. Ukraine’s leadership knows this, but just like the French they must try to liberate their territory, no matter the cost. Unlike the French, Ukraine does not have powerful allied armies fighting shoulder to shoulder with them.

As for Russia, the war has badly weakened their military and geopolitical standing, but many believe that Russia has weathered the worst of the war. The economy has been reconfigured to support the military. Russia is much less reliant on allies than the Ukrainians. Plus, Russia’s allies such as Iran and North Korea are more than glad to provide them with armaments for payment in cash or natural resources. Public support for the war in Russia is still lukewarm, but the Putin regime ensures that resistance is futile. For the first time since the war started, the Kremlin looks like it has the upper hand. Russia is in a somewhat similar position to the German Empire during World War I, which also had powerful western nations allied against it.

Open grave – Kaiser Wilhelm II inspects a trench during the German Spring Offensive in 1918

All or Nothing = Risk Management
In the spring of 1918, the Germans were on the cusp of victory. They had won the war on the Eastern Front. Their Spring Offensive in France and Belgium made remarkable gains until it stalled out. That would be the German’s last gasp. The strains of fighting the war almost totally alone on the Western Front finally broke the German Army. Political collapse soon followed. The Germans would have been much better off to have negotiated a settlement when they were in a position of strength. By continuing to fight, they were their own worst enemy. An all or nothing strategy resulted in defeat.

Russia shows no signs of negotiating either. Putin believes the west is tiring of the war and that support for Ukraine is waning. It might also be just as true that Russians are tired of the war and the astronomical number of casualties their forces are suffering. Continuing to fight and lose thousands of men each week is a risk Putin is willing to take. Whether or not the soldiers doing the fighting will continue to risk – and mostly lose – their lives could be a deciding factor. Right now, it is 1915 in the Ukraine-Russia War, but as World War I showed the situation can change radically.

Exercises In Self-Defeatism – A World War I Parallel (Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine #359a)

I have been fascinated with the First World War for as long as I can remember. Part of that fascination comes from trying to imagine what it must have been like as the Great Powers committed themselves to perpetual disaster. One of the questions that often arises in my mind while reading about the war is why both sides failed to find some sort of compromise before 1918. As the years passed. it was obvious that the war was doing irreparable damage to all involved. The solution was to throw millions of men into battle with the vain hope that this would somehow alter the military situation. It only served to further solidify the stasis along the front lines. The war became a contest of wills to see which side could hold out the longest. The ramifications were immense.

Holding out – Ruins of Ypres Belgium in 1919 (Credit: William Lester King)2

Holding Out – The Great Power Struggle
During World War I the Great Powers were caught in a trap of its own making. France was bleeding itself to death. Losing an entire generation on the western front. By war’s end France would be demographically devastated. The same could be said to a lesser extent for the British and German Empires. Both had other reasons to be concerned beyond demographics. For the British, financing the war was pushing the empire towards bankruptcy. The German Empire was being starved of men and material. An even greater starvation led to a German civilian population that was becoming increasingly unruly. The Russian Empire had plenty of men, but the war put strains on the economy and society that eventually led to an internal implosion. The Austro-Hungarian Empire was barely able to hold on after the first five months of the war. From 1915 onward, its military became ever more combat ineffective. The Ottoman Empire was close to collapse throughout the war. A situation it had suffered from before the fighting began. With each passing year of the war, Ottoman authority over their subjects grew more tenuous.

Each of the Great Powers had two things in common during the war. The first was that it continually eroded their power. The second was that they continued to fight the war even though it was no longer in their best interest. None of the Great Powers would ever be the same. As a matter of fact, four of the empires would no longer exist by the end of 1918. The British Empire did survive, but the war was the beginning of its end. While the empire continued, it was nowhere near as powerful as it had been at the start of 1914. All of Europe’s Great Powers had taken part in an exercise of self-destruction during World War I. The inability to pivot from stalemate to ceasefire to negotiated peace sealed their fates. While each had good reasons for continuing the war, the end results were always the same, self-defeating disasters.

      A bleak prospect – Damaged building in Avdiivka, Ukraine

Static Situation – Stuck In The Muck
Stalemates in war have vast and unpredictable consequences. This can seem counterintuitive since a stalemate means that the frontlines are static. The gains made from attacks are incremental at best. Stalemates give the illusion that nothing is happening. There is combat going on and it is going nowhere. Stalemates have a way of lulling those watching from afar into a false sense of security. Observers begin to believe that nothing can break a stalemate. This is the situation that now exists in the Ukraine-Russia War. Early in 2023, the Russians tried to go on the offensive. This only exposed how bogged down they had become in eastern and southern Ukraine. The Kremlin’s forty-eight-hour war had transformed into a months-long quagmire that could continue for years. At that point no one was calling the war a stalemate, at least not on the Ukrainian side.

Ukraine and its western allies had high hopes that the Ukrainian’s planned spring counteroffensive would be able to break through the Russian lines, like they had during the fall of 2022 in Kharkiv Province. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian counteroffensive started later than planned. It soon became bogged down due to a combination of factors that included stout Russian defenses, lack of weaponry, soldiers with little to no combat experience or enough training to conduct combined arms warfare, and questionable strategy. When Ukraine’s top military commander, Valery Zaluzhny, penned an article in The Economist at the beginning of November admitting that the war had become a stalemate, there was no denying a situation that had become glaringly obvious.

The frontlines are static, combat is a muddy slog, and both sides are trying to figure out how to use the current situation to their advantage. The defense has the advantage while the aggressor incurs thousands of casualties with very little to show for it. Comparisons between the Ukraine-Russia War and World War I are now appropriate. Years of unending warfare with nominal gains and high casualty rates could become the norm. And just like World War I, both sides fight on even though arguments could be made for both sides that it would be better to negotiate peace. That almost certainly will not happen anytime soon. From Ukraine’s perspective that would be a mistake though this could change as the war grinds on.

    An all-too-common scene – Bakhmut under fire (Credit: Dpsu.gov.ua)

Indecisive Results – The Static Front
The current stalemate is redefining the war. Since the war began on February 24, 2022, specific areas of the fighting have been usually defined as the eastern front, southern front, and behind the lines (aerial and drone attacks on both Ukrainian and Russian targets), Now there is only the static front. Several thousand kilometers of lines with stout defensive works including tank traps, mines, ditches, and any type of obstruction that can slow the aggressor down long enough for the defense to bring massive amounts of firepower against them. Neither side enjoys air superiority. Both lack the capabilities to break through. The war has become one of attrition that does not promise decisive results in either the near or medium term. This is as close to World War I as any war has gotten in Europe since that struggle. The parallels between the Ukraine-War and World War I are not perfect, but they are similar enough to have eerie echoes of a struggle that ultimately proved self-defeating.

Click here for: Years of Attrition – Running In Place: 1915/16 & 2023/? (Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine #359b)

Fighting Themselves – The Real Russian Enemy (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #345)

I often think the only thing Russians fear is themselves. There are numerous instances throughout their history of suicidal behavior on an alarming scale. This was especially true during the 20th century. The examples read like a litany of the worst that humanity has to offer. These include, rushing into World War I with a disorganized army led by a corrupt officer class and a clueless Tsar. Then continuing to fight the war despite millions of casualties and societal unrest. Even after the Tsar abdicated, the provisional government decided to try yet another offensive with predictably disastrous results. It was as though, Russia’s leaders wanted to ensure a successful Bolshevik Revolution. Vladimir Lenin could not have been luckier. He was not nearly as effective as his advisories were incompetent. And this is just one of many examples from the numerous famines, purges, nuclear accidents, military bungling, and misguided adventures at both home and abroad by leaders lacking any sort of moderation. The Russian populace was treated with disdain. In turn, they treated each other with that same lack of compassion. It was a vicious cycle that will ultimately be measured in millions of lives lost.

Carried away – Wounded Russian soldier being transported away from the front

Pulling Triggers – The Cultivation of Catastrophe
The disasters that have occurred with frightening regularity throughout Russian history did not just happen by historical happenstance. In every one of the examples given above, Russians were in the majority of those most intimately involved. They have played the critical role in their own demise time and again. In the Soviet Union, Russians were the dominant ethnic group. The same was true for the Russian Empire. Some might say that this is pinning all the blame on Russians. Well, it is obvious that Russians have a history of blaming themselves. Just look at the violence they perpetrated upon each other during the 20^th century. There are those who try to explain Russia’s disastrous 20^th century by saying it was ultimately the fault of communism or Stalinism. Yet those ideologies built upon something very dark and decadent that already existed in Russian society.

Josef Stalin, ethnically Georgian, may have been a mass murder on an unfathomable scale, but he was not the one pulling the triggers when prisoners were getting bullets in the back of the head. Russians, by sheer weight of numbers were the ones most complicit in Soviet crimes. It should always be remembered that for all the misery Russians have caused other nations, they have caused the most for themselves.  Considering this ill-fated past, it should not be that surprising to discover that the Russian habit of cultivating catastrophe has continued with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Russian heart is filled with darkness, and they have followed that darkness down into another disaster.

By invading Ukraine, Russia has sowed the seeds of its own demise. By continuing the war, they prolong the agony of defeat. Rather than walk away from the war, the Russians have dug in deeper. They cannot go forward, nor can they go back. Hypothetically they could withdrawal, but politically this is a non-starter. A retreat with nothing to show for it other than 200,000 casualties would almost certainly spell the end of the Putin regime. And even if forced to retreat, the Russians must hold onto the gains they made fighting in the Donbas from 2014 – 2022. To relinquish those would mean that Valdimir Putin’s decision to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine led to the loss of territories it already occupied. There would be no way for the Kremlin to evade responsibility for such a result.

Fighting on – World War I poster asking for Russians to send books to their soldiers

Meager Gains – The Wait & See Approach
There is no escape from the mess Vladimir Putin has made for Russia. And what is Putin, but a representation of the worst aspects of the Russian people. Aspects that considering their history, occur all too frequently. It is not surprising that the Russians are stubbornly hanging on in Ukraine despite their poor performance. Conventional logic is that they are waiting for a better result on the battlefield, but there has never been anything conventional about Russia. They might well be waiting for something worse to happen. That is the Russian way, one that has deep roots in the past.

The Kremlin has ordered Russian soldiers to hunker down behind their formidable defensive works. The hope is that time is on their side. Hope never won a war, but it has kept many going. From the Kremlin’s point of view, they need to hang on long enough and Ukraine may be forced to negotiate a peace on more favorable terms to Russia. This seemed like a sensible strategy until the Prigozhin Mutiny exposed massive dissension in the Russian war effort. We should never underestimate the Russian ability to fight as hard among themselves as they do with the enemy. The dissension reflects friction and infighting that threatens to upend the Kremlin’s latest plan to lock in their meager gains. It also shows that the waiting game carries extreme risks for the Putin regime.

The war has only lukewarm public support inside Russia. As the costs continue to rise, along with it come increasingly difficult questions about why they are in Ukraine and how much longer Russian soldiers will be there. The regime is not prepared to answer those questions. Their only response is oppression and propaganda. The problem with repression is that it can lead to pent up pressure that eventually explodes. Propaganda is not much better. It is force fed to the Russian public as a cure for the Putin regime’s crisis of legitimacy. This still does nothing to change the static situation on the Russian side of the front. Every day in the trenches further erodes morale. And there are a lot more days to come in the trenches. Hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers are enduring a soul sapping experience. From their perspective, the war looks no closer to a decisive conclusion.

The wait gets longer – Russian prisoners of war captured in Ukraine

Unresolved Problems – An Elusive Solution
It is often said that waiting is the hardest part. That includes war where the waiting is amplified. Russian soldiers at the front keep waiting for something good to happen, but they probably expect the worst. Why would they not? Russian history shows this is what usually happens. The Russians are involved in an unwinnable war because they are ultimately fighting themselves. This is ultimately a problem that only they can solve. Up to this point in their history, a solution has proved elusive. Just like victory in Ukraine.

Click here for: From Three Days to Three Years – Putin Plays The Long Game (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #346)

Digging Up Bones – Evidence of Conflicts Past & Present In Ukraine (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #344)

The Ukraine-Russia War is synonymous with destruction and rightfully so. Because of Russia’s unprovoked aggression, catastrophic damage has been inflicted upon Ukraine’s infrastructure. The losses run into the hundreds of billions of dollars and continue unabated as the war grinds on. Everything from historic buildings to homes, nuclear power plants and ports, dams to waterworks have been either damaged or destroyed. Entire cities such as Bakhmut and Mariupol have been rendered uninhabitable. There is also the incalculable human cost. The litany of losses has included an estimated one-hundred thousand soldiers killed or wounded. The same has happened to tens of thousands of civilians. Similar numbers of Ukrainians have been deported from Russian occupied areas. This is the tragedy of war. Amid such chaos and calamity, it is hard to see beyond the destruction. Picking through the rubble that was once your home, your life, your loved ones is a heart wrenching experience that no one should have to suffer.

Time After Time – Result of a Russian airstrike on a children’s hospital in Mariupol
(Credit: armyinform.com.ua)

Tracer Fire – Remnants of War
One day this terrible war will be over, but its traces will be littered across the land. Shell fragments, landmines, cratered roads, derelict buildings, abandoned homes, marked and unmarked graves, these remains will be a reminder of the conflict. They will join the many other artifacts from earlier wars fought on Ukrainian soil. From time to time, the relics of previous conflicts crop up during the current war. The craters left behind by explosions turn up material traces from the fighting on the Eastern Front during World War II. Digging trenches and foxholes can turn into an exercise in archeology. Bullets, bones, and bombs are sometimes revealed.

Ukrainian soldiers have reported finding artifacts from German soldiers who were standing in the same places eighty years ago. The 1,200-kilometer frontline in eastern and southern Ukraine is superimposed upon an earlier frontline where war between the Wehrmacht and Red Army raged. The parallels are eerie. While the combatants may have changed, the reason for waging war in Ukraine has not. Nazi German and Russian fascism are the similar culprits separated by less than a century. This is both fascinating and terribly depressing. It also shows just how ferocious the fighting has been in Ukraine. A land that seems forever caught between eastern despotism and western enlightenment. Ukraine and Ukrainians have often been caught in the middle with dire consequences for their involvement. In these struggles, they have been everything from bystanders to the battle hardened.

Destructive impulses – Saltivka residential area after the Battle of Kharkiv
(Credit: Оксана Іванець / АрміяInform) 

Direct Conflict – Independence & Imperialism
Ukraine is a land that for over a thousand years has been the equivalent of a gigantic screen on which ambitious powers project their power struggles. Time and again, rapacious outsiders imposed themselves on those they deemed as weaker. That usually meant Ukrainians came out on the losing end. Even when many of them ended up on the winning side, such as with the Red Army during World War II, this resulted in attempts to assimilate them. Ukrainian attempts at independence were still born for centuries. When they did succeed, it was not for very long. There was always a larger power to squelch their dreams of independence before it could fully form. Ukraine finally gained its independence through an accident of history when the Soviet Union disintegrated. Too bad no one bothered to tell Russian revanchists, uber-nationalists, and firebrand imperialists that they were no longer wanted nor needed in Ukraine. They realized this only after being given the boot during multiple revolutions. The idea of Ukraine as no longer part of Russia or beholden to Russia was infuriating to the Kremlin. As one geopolitical wag pointed out, Russia with Ukraine is an empire, Russia without Ukraine is just another nation.

Losing Ukraine was too much for Russians to stomach. Chief among those who could not tolerate this was Vladimir Putin. This would lead to another Blood and Soil program in the farther reaches of Eastern Europe. That phrase was given its infamy by the Nazis who tied it to the idea of Lebensraum (living space). Back then, the Blood referred to ethnic Germans and the Soil was Eastern Europe including Ukraine. The Putin regime turned that idea on its head. Though they did not use the term Blood and Soil, they might as well have.  The Blood now referred to ethnic Russians and the Soil was Ukraine, especially Crimea and the Donbas. This could only mean one thing, going to war. Thus, the fateful decision of recovering Ukraine and incorporating it into a Greater Russia was made.

Independent Minded – President Volodymyr Zelensky at reraising the Ukrainian flag in Kherson (Credit: President of Ukraine)

Go West – Taking A Turn For The Better
It was back to the future as neo-Russian imperialism received a steroidal boost from the Kremlin. The concept included ideas of a new Novorossiya, patronizing Ukrainians as Little Russians, and questioning Ukraine’s existence. Putin sought to denigrate the idea of Ukraine, before setting out to destroy it. This presaged the Russian provoked bloodbath to come. Ukraine has periodically suffered through these spasms of Russian chauvinism throughout its history. This would be one more that could be added to a very long list. The war with Russia is different from many of the past conflicts in Ukraine due to one very important aspect. Ukrainians are now fighting to finally end the centuries of Russian imperial aggression in their homeland.

This runs in parallel with Ukraine shifting towards integration with Europe and the western world. The idea is that only under the security umbrella of an organization such as NATO, can Ukraine find the long-sought security that has eluded it for centuries. At the same time, this idea terrifies the Kremlin. It would mean the waning of Russian influence in not only Ukraine, but also Europe. Russia would be isolated from it near abroad. Their so-called sphere of influence would no longer exist. To stave off what would be a geopolitical disaster of massive proportions, the Kremlin launched a full-scale invasion that has resulted in Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. This was the same conflict that left traces of war that lie just beneath the current battlefield. Dig deep enough into the blood drenched soil and the remnants of previous wars will appear. The current conflict is adding yet another layer of history. Will this be the last one? Only time will tell.

Click here for: Fighting Themselves – The Real Russian Enemy (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #345)

The Show Must Go On – Vladimir Putin Version 2020 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #328a)

2022 was a terrible year for Vladimir Putin, 2023 is looking even worse. Putin has now faced down a mutiny. He did not defeat it with his usual weapons of choice such as open windows, poison, or radioactive substances. Instead, Putin feigned outrage and then proceeded to turn a cold shoulder toward the culprits. Belarus’ usually hapless dictator, Aleksandr Lukashenko, ended up bailing out Putin. At least that is the story for now. This narrative is liable to change. Unfortunately, change in the Russian leadership looks unlikely to occur. Nevertheless, lack of a decisive response from Putin confused Kremlinologists. This was out of character for a man who spent two decades cultivating a tough guy persona. Putin usually deals with those who oppose him by bankrupting, imprisoning, and sometimes murdering them. In this case, he did nothing of the sort.

Compliments of the chef – Vladimir Putin & Yevgeny Prigozhin together in earlier times (Credit: Government of the Russian Federation)

The Aftermath – Mutiny On The Don
The post-mutiny plot thickened this week when it was revealed that Putin met with Yevgeny Prigozhin and 35 other Wagner commanders, just five days after the latter and his disgruntled band of mutineers took over Russia’s Southern Military District in Rostov-On-Don without firing a shot. The Wagner troops were subsequently given VIP treatment by crowds of gawking locals watching in wide eyed amazement as events unfolded. The mutineers then proceeded to head north on a lightning strike that would put the Barbarossa blitzkrieg to shame. They only met light resistance on their journey towards Moscow. A small aerial force from the Russian military made a futile attempt to stop the mutineers. This only resulted in yet another embarrassing loss for Russian military forces in a war filled with them. They also encountered some tepidly formed highway barricades and torn up sections of road courtesy of a steam shovel sent to draw a line in the pavement. This less than serious effort to protect the regime was not going to stop battle hardened mercenaries determined to sort out the Russian military leadership. It was going to take something much more sublime, a phone call from Lukashenko.

Two hundred kilometers outside of Moscow, Lukashenko intervened by talking Prigozhin down from the ledge. This was not a bromance made in malevolence, more a marriage of convenience between two men whose livelihoods depended upon it. What deal was negotiated did not make everything in Putin world right again. Instead, it allowed for everything to go back to abnormal. The entire ordeal was surreal and beggared belief. If this had been a movie, no one would have believed the plotline. The actors were unable to competently play their parts. Their performance was lacking in sincerity. Prigozhin looked like a deadbeat dad out to avenge those who had stopped enabling his bad behavior. The child support payments were going to stop, but in this case Prigozhin was the child.

Mutiny on the Don – Crowd in Rostov-on-Don with Wagner Tank (Credit: Fargoh)

High Stakes Soap Opera – Days of Our Dictator
The times Putin appeared during the mutiny and in its immediate aftermath, he looked as though he had aged twenty years in twenty-four hours. Not that long ago he was posing shirtless in the Siberian wilderness with a fishing rod in his hand. Now he was reduced to being a bloated stuffed suit while angrily addressing the Russian nation. While watching Putin fulminate during his appearances, it was hard not to get the stinging suspicion that he was talking more to himself than the Russian people. Putin was doing a bad job of convincing himself that he still had what it takes to administer his preferred brand of vindicative justice. This was problematical because If Putin could not convince himself, then how could he convince his fellow Russians. Putin has become a stranger to his former self, and Russia has become a geopolitical basket case. One that the rest of the world watches in disbelief. It is like a high stakes soap opera, “Days of our Dictator” starring a regime on the verge of collapse.

This was not the end of Vladimir Putin, but it strangely seemed somehow worse for him. A show of weakness that portends similar shenanigans to keep up the appearance of control. The curtain has been pulled back and the wizard is shown to be a mere mortal rifling through his grab bag of machinations, searching for something that works. Rather than the new and improved Vladimir Putin ready to fight off the western world, we have the old and irritated Putin worrying himself sick over whether his vast security apparatus could hold off a former hot dog salesman turned revolutionary leader. No one could make this stuff up. Because this Russia, such bizarre behavior can be found in its history books. It is a way of political life that keeps repeating itself with entirely new casts of characters. The characters in this latest surreal scenario look like they are ready for a Russian version of the Rocky Horror Picture Show. All this would be utterly ridiculous if these same characters were not continuing to prosecute the largest conventional war in Europe since 1945. The leading man may be a mere shell of his former menacing self, but he is still in control of a massive nuclear arsenal. This, despite the fact he cannot stop 5,000 mercenaries going on a joyless ride for the ages.

Version 2020 – Vladimir Putin (Credit: kremlin.ru)

Self-Deception – Shadowy Ways
What does all this malevolent absurdity have to do with Vladimir Putin? Well for starters, everything. The world is now experiencing Putin Version 2020. A much different Putin from earlier versions. Putin 2000 was the supposed cagey spymaster with his shadowy ways making Russia a great power again through the power of petrodollars. Then there was Putin 2010, an unkinder, harsher version of the supposed master strategist who unhinged the rules based international order by taking back Crimea and prosecuting a nasty pseudo-proxy war in eastern Ukraine. This version of Putin relished his malevolent role, working to undermine the western world. He outmaneuvered one western leader after another. He bought off Gerhard Schroder, shook down Angela Merkel, wrongfooted Barack Obama, humored Donald Trump, and fooled George W. Bush.

This supposedly made Putin a master strategist, but no one ever asked who was doing the deceiving. Was it Putin or did these leaders deceive themselves? Unspoken fears and sublime naivety helped Putin in his years long campaign to convince westerners to give him respect “or else.” Then Putin Version 2020 showed them what “or else” meant when he ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That decision has backfired to such an extent that it is doubtful if there will be a version beyond Putin 2020. That is the consequence and ultimately the question surrounding his war in Ukraine.

Click here for: Terminal Decline – Vladimir Putin Version 2020 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #328b)

Wait & Seethe Approach – Putin’s Final Frozen Conflicts (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #327)

For two decades, Vladimir Putin was the master of frozen conflicts. He propagated wars without end in Georgia and eastern Ukraine. Putin used Russian forces and separatist proxies to weaken both nations. Weakness in neighboring states made Russia look strong. In the case of those conflicts, Putin worked off the idea of “if you can’t beat them, just freeze them.” Rather than bringing either conflict to a definitive end, Putin preferred to have them stay unresolved. He used the war-torn areas inside Georgia and Ukraine to destabilize their governments. Putin also inherited a frozen conflict in Moldova where Russian backed separatists in Transnistria formed a breakaway statelet during the early 1990’s. Putin provided financial support and military muscle as needed to ensure that Moldova was not united again.

These frozen conflicts allowed Russian influence to fester in a variety of nefarious manners. The military aspects of each conflict were relatively low intensity. To paraphrase famed Prussian strategist Carl von Clausewitz, “Frozen conflicts are politics by other means.” Russia was able to exert control over these nation’s internal affairs by sowing the seeds of discord. In retrospect, this strategy was prone to gambler’s error. It worked, it worked, it worked and until one day it didn’t. That day came when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine failed.

From bad to worse – Vladimir Putin address Russia after the mutiny

On The Defensive – No Going Back
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was extraordinary because Putin abandoned the frozen conflict ideal in a bid for total victory. Only after Ukraine fought back with support from the western world, did the discussion turn to Putin possibly freezing the conflict. This would lock Russian gains in place and further his continued efforts to destabilize Ukraine. A strange situation is now taking place where Russia is stuck in what amounts to a frozen conflict both in Ukraine and on the home front. Putin has managed to destabilize his own regime. In Ukraine, Russia’s troops are no longer capable of launching any major offensives. Each Russian offensive is less successful than the one before it. Now the Russian military is stuck in Ukraine. Militarily they cannot go forward and politically they are not allowed to go back. They have been reduced to playing defense.

Holding the line has become the Russian’s main strategy. This is extremely difficult to do over a long period of time. A sporting analogy best explains their untenable situation. Imagine Russia as a sports team that took the lead early in a game. Momentum is soon lost as the inevitable triumph turns into a desperate attempt to stave off eventual defeat. They spend the rest of the game trying to protect a dwindling lead. “Bend but not break” becomes their maxim. In a last gasp of desperate motivation, they try a strategy of “the best defense is a good offense.” This results in miniscule gains at an exorbitant cost. They exhaust themselves just trying to hold on. This increasingly precarious position results in a final collapse and devastating defeat. This is the situation the Russian military now finds itself in. The longer they try to hold their gains, the more these are threatened.

Mutinous behavior- Yevgeny Prigozhin

Dead Ends – Stalling For Time
Putin is playing stall ball, trying to run out the clock on Ukraine and its allies. In the Russian lines, the troops are trying a “wait and see” approach. This could easily turn into a “wait and seethe” situation where the morale of Russian troops plummets even further from its already abysmal level. At a certain point, this could lead to an implosion where Russian troops turn on their own side. To a certain extent, that already happened with the mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenary forces. This has led to the other frozen conflict where Putin and his regime are held hostage on the home front.

If Putin purges the military, he will be giving in to Prigozhin’s demands for the removal of Russia’s incompetent senior military leadership. If Putin goes after Prigozhin, then he may find himself with another mutiny on his hands. Putin does have a third option, try to maintain the status quo. In other words, do nothing while appearing to do something. This is largely what he has done so far. In the short term, this strategy is probably tenable, but long term it will erode Putin’s support and weaken his already embattled regime. When doing nothing about a mutiny is the best option, the problem is acute.

Putin is aware that there is no easy way out of a frozen conflict. That is why conflicts in Georgia, Transnistria, and eastern Ukraine (until the full-scale invasion) stayed frozen for so long. Putin has put himself in the worst position possible. He needs to make some extremely dangerous decisions before events control him rather than the other way around. At this point, he looks incapable of doing that. Ironically, Putin is frozen. This is the classic “damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario.” Each day that Putin’s frozen conflict inside Russia continues, the greater the odds that he will face another mutiny or even worse, a full-blown coup.

Putin is stuck, but so are the Russian elites who could replace him. Putin is the guarantor of their ill-gotten gains. These elites have a lot to lose, and not just in wealth. The fall of Putin could cost them their lives as well as their livelihoods. They are stuck with Putin because there is no better or clear alternatives. Putin’s hollowing out of Russian institutions and squeezing of internal opponents has been so thorough, that he remains the ultimate authority for now. There is nowhere for them to run other than in circles. All roads lead to dead ends or back to Putin, which at this point is the same thing.

The long good bye – Vladimir Putin

Risk Aversion – Caught In A Trap
The only way for Russians to end the frozen conflict on the home front is to get rid of Putin. That entails huge risks. Who and what comes after him is the great unknown. Judging by Russian history, it would not be good. The only way for Putin to end the frozen conflict is by undermining his own regime. No wonder Putin has been dithering since the mutiny. He is now caught in a trap of his own making. This is a situation he has never faced before. He is at the mercy of events, rather than controlling them. It has been this way in the war with Ukraine for a long time. Only recently, has the same thing happened inside Russia. Putin is being forced to react and his main reaction has been inaction. Putin and his regime look out of their depths. This is not surprising. Putin always knew how to start frozen conflicts, but he has no experience ending them. 

Coming soon: The Show Must Go On – Vladimir Putin Version 2020 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #328a)

The Front Lines Are Everywhere – Attack On Lviv (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #326b)

In the early morning hours of July 6^th, Russian missiles struck near the center of Lviv in western Ukraine. Lviv is far from the frontlines, but as a city that is known as “the most Ukrainian city in Ukraine”, it is a prime target for the Putin regime. This was not the first time that Lviv had suffered an attack. Last October, the Russians targeted the city’s electrical and water infrastructure. Compared to other cities in Ukraine, Lviv has suffered less attacks. Much of this had to do with its location. Lviv is further away from the frontlines than any major city in Ukraine. It is also only 70 kilometers east of the border with Poland. The Russians have been reticent to launch missile attacks at the city because they might go astray and land on NATO territory. As the war grows in length, caution has become another casualty. Russia is willing to take greater risks because they are running out of ways to rattle the Ukrainian populace.

Aftermath of an attack – Vehicles & building damage in Lviv from Russian attack on July 6th

Sinister & Pointless – A Losing Proposition
This latest Russian attack on Ukrainian civilians was like so many others except for the change in target Just as they have been doing with missiles launches at Kyiv, Kharkiv and Dnipro, the Russians took aim at residential areas in Lviv. Unlike Kyiv, Lviv does not have the robust air defenses needed to thwart such an attack. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 7 of the 10 missiles targeting Lviv. That was a less than desirable success rate. The missiles that got through struck a residential building, killing 10 and wounding 42 civilians (as of July 8^th). The point of this attack – like all the other Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians – was to terrorize the populace. It had nothing to do with any semblance of a larger military strategy. The attack was both premeditated and random. In other words, paradoxical. Rather than another show of Russian strength, the attack exposed their weakness.

The only offensive capacity the Russians have left involves sinister attacks on innocent civilians far from the front lines. In the overall scheme of the war, the attack was incredibly pointless. Outside of satisfying a strange, sadistic fetish for wreaking havoc on innocent civilians, the attack did nothing to change Russian prospects in the war. Despite this pointlessness, it did rouse me and many others from war weariness. Lviv was an attack that many took personally, including me. I have a good friend from the city and knew that her family lives not that far from where the attack occurred. Lviv is also well known by foreigners. For many, it is the only city in Ukraine they have visited.

Besides Kyiv, Lviv was the most visited city in Ukraine by tourists prior to the war. There were 2.5 million tourist visits to Lviv in 2019 (the last full year prior to the COVID pandemic). By comparison, the famed seaside city of Odessa had 1.5 million. Lviv’s city center is a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Tourism has been an engine of growth that has made Lviv one of Ukraine’s most prosperous cities. It is the most Mitteleuropean city in Ukraine. Lviv leans westward. This makes it a hub for foreign direct investment and mass tourism. Unfortunately, this also makes it a target for the Putin regime which would love nothing more than to wipe Ukraine’s people, economy, and culture off the map. Thus, while the attack was unexpected, it was hardly surprising.

Crime against humanity – Destruction caused by Russian missile attack on Lviv

Constant Stress – Far From The Frontlines
Just before bedtime I learned of the attack on Lviv. There were news reports online of extensive damage to both people and property. Since it occurred not far from the historic center of Lviv, where my friend’s family lives, I sent her a message asking if they were ok. Silence can seem deadly when it comes to communicating with those affected by war. I knew there would be a delay before I would hear back from her. She now lives in Berlin with her husband and young son. Raising a young child in a different country while your family are living in a city under attack is extremely difficult. This is a part of the war that gets very little coverage. The collateral damage of the conflict bleeds across borders, causing the Ukrainian diaspora and refugees in the rest of Europe an intense amount of stress. There is a tremendous feeling of helplessness. Something that well-wishers and ardent trans-Atlantic supporters of Ukraine such as myself can scarcely comprehend, let along understand.

In the afternoon, I received a message that my friend’s family was safe and doing as well as could be expected under the circumstances. While they did not suffer any injuries or property damage, the attack was as close as they had come to being injured. And make no mistake, they were targets. With this attack, the Putin regime was aiming to injure and/or kill anyone in Lviv. The Russians are certainly aware that because so many of their missiles and drones are shot down, that this can lead to a false sense of security. Ukrainians trying to go about their business despite these attacks is understandable.

War does not stop life, but far from the front lines missile and drone attacks infringe upon it. The ubiquitous blaring of air raid sirens is easy enough to ignore until it is too late. There is an element of luck to surviving any war. Taking every precaution possible can only keep a person so safe. When the bullets, drones, missiles, and mortars start flying everyone’s life hangs in the balance. The attack on Lviv is a tragic reminder of how deadly the consequences of Russia’s war on Ukrainian civilians can be for those that live far from the frontlines.

Damage assessment – First responders at the scene of Russian attack on Lviv

Daily Assaults – An Unending War
After 500 days it is easy to forget that the Ukraine-Russia war is just as lethal as it has ever been. Combat rages all along the front in eastern and southern Ukraine. Aerial attacks by the Russians threaten everyone in Ukraine. In modern war, the frontlines are everywhere and that includes Lviv. On the night of the attack, Lvivians went to sleep safe in their homes. Ten of these Ukrainians never saw the light of day again. The only thing they heard was a terrible noise, white hot flashes and the walls of their residences crumbling around them. Another forty suffered wounds and were lucky to survive. Families and friends, confidantes and strangers have had their lives altered by this attack and countless other ones across Ukraine just like it. The war will continue to rage, and Ukrainians will continue to die hundreds of kilometers from the front lines. For those of us who watch our friends suffer, we can sympathize with them, but never truly comprehend what they are going through. The attack in Lviv was not just a reminder, but also a warning. No matter how wearying, this war is far from over. Neither is fear and suffering.    

Click here for: Wait & Seethe Approach – Putin’s Final Frozen Conflicts (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #327)

From Midnight To Morning – War Weariness & The Attack On Lviv (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #326a)

I should have grown used to it by now, but I probably never will. Just before bedtime is when I have most often received the worst news from Ukraine. This has been ongoing since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine began before dawn on February 24, 2022. On that unforgettable night, I decided to scroll through Twitter just as I was about to fall asleep. Within minutes I was staring at the screen on my phone in disbelief. Hours later I was still doing the same thing. The predictions of a Russian invasion of Ukraine had come true. Could this really be happening? This was not a war game or a reality show, it was the return of history to a land that had way too much of it during the 20^th century.

The world changed in the early morning hours of February 24th in ways that we have yet to truly comprehend. This was a geopolitical earthquake on a seismic scale. It caused me to sit up and take immediate notice. That first night, I would be awake many more hours before finally falling asleep a few hours before dawn. The same thing happened again and again during that first week of the invasion. Bedtime became all about bombs falling as the war accelerated. This was historic, but in the worst way possible. The war may have started in Ukraine, but a war in the world’s head had also begun.

The fog of war – Dead Russian soldiers in Easter Ukraine (Credit: ADifferentMan)

Returning With A Vengeance – The Sad Facts
There would be many more nights of sitting wide eyed while reading reports from the frontlines. Some were more memorable than others. These included the executions of Ukrainian civilians in Bucha, the Azovstal siege at Mariupol, attacks and occupations of the Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plants, victory for the Ukrainians in the Battle of Kyiv, and Russia doubling down on the war in Donbas with a litany of war crimes. Scattered among these were those anecdotal stories that I knew would live with me long after they became yesterday’s news. The young woman whose fingernails were pulled out by Russian soldiers in Bucha, the holocaust survivors who could not survive one final war, the parents whose children were taken from them, possibly forever.

These are the most sickening sides of war, the ones that I can barely stand to read. These stories have nothing to do with strategy and tactics, sneak attacks and psyops. It is people acting out barbaric instincts on the defenseless and innocent. Oddly, these stories did not keep me up at night. Instead, I fell asleep not long after reading them. The difference was that on the next day, next week, next month and next year, they returned with a vengeance. The most unsettling thing is to be haunted during both the day and night about things you can do nothing about. Helplessness is never far away from hopelessness. Sometimes it felt like I was going to wake up one day to find out the world was coming to an end. After a while, the fear faded, and the reality of a long, hard slog set in. I realized that this must be what World War I felt like.

Laid to waste – Result of shelling in Donetsk (Credit: ADifferentMan)

Survival Instincts – Detachment & Distance
The Russians were stuck in Ukraine, much like the Germans were in France on the Western Front. They could not go forward, nor could they turn back. Ukraine, like France, had the best reason for continuing to fight the war. They wanted to liberate their homeland. Along with this realization, came the predictable professions of war weariness from commentators. The worst thing was that for armchair warriors and geopolitical junkies they were true. How much can anyone hear about artillery barrages and missile attacks before they feel fatigued? The answer was not anywhere near the number those who live in Ukraine do. Being exposed to life threatening attacks on a day-to-day basis focuses the mind. For everyone else, the shock and awe of the war slowly erodes. The massive number of images, reports, tweets, and videos from the war was overwhelming. The shock effect was bound to eventually wear off. The opposite was true for Ukrainians. They did not have the luxury of slowly succumbing to indifference. War could hit their homes at any time, no matter how far they were from the frontlines. As for the rest of the world, mass media tended to make less of an impression no matter how horrifying.

While I continued to read news accounts of the fighting, a sense of detachment and distance replaced the rage and rancor. Stoicism had set in. That was the only way to deal with what for the time being was a war with no end in sight. At least not the war I wanted to end in Ukrainian victory with Putin no longer in power and his henchman on trial at the Hague. It began to dawn on me that the war was far from over and sometimes it looks like it never will be. Nothing lasts forever, but this war feels like it. I guess every war feels that way, but this one has been so well documented that it seems to prolong the agony. At a certain point, information overload becomes counterproductive. Mental health suffers and interest in the war wanes. A survival instinct takes hold, but this is prone to change based upon the next news bulletin.

Hitting home – Damage from Russian attack in a Ukrainian city

Hitting Home – Attacking Lviv
From time to time, I would read a headline so shocking that the war would appear front and center again. Two of the more recent concerned the destruction of Kakhovka Dam and the Russians mining the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant for potential destruction. These are events that could change the war. Unfortunately, they only last as long as the news cycle will allow. The one item of news from the war that recently shocked me back into reality happened as it always does, right before bedtime. In this case, I was scrolling through Twitter when I noticed that city of Lviv in western Ukraine was trending. Since the war started, any Ukrainian city trending on Twitter is a very bad thing. Sure enough, I started to see news reports of an attack on Lviv. This hit home. Lviv is my most beloved city in Eastern Europe. The fact that it had been hit was a punch to the stomach. The first thing I thought of was a friend from Lviv. She now lived in Berlin, but her family was still there and in harm’s way. It was time to find out if they were safe.

Coming soon: Front Lines Are Everywhere – The Attack On Lviv (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #326b)

Russia & The Mutineers – Cracking The Façade (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #325)

At a certain point somewhere between the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Prigozhin mutiny, observers had ceased to be shocked by the behavior of Vladimir Putin and his regime. Whether it was the murder of Ukrainian civilians in Bucha, the siege and destruction of Mariupol, indiscriminate missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, kidnapping of Ukrainian children and their forced relocation to Russia, assorted nuclear threats, the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam and resultant catastrophic flooding or countless incidents that violated the established rules of war, the shock caused by Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine had long since worn off. The war seemed to be grinding on into a prolonged stalemate. With Russian forces drowning in a quagmire of their own making and the Ukrainian counteroffensive off to a slow start, the war was growing more stagnant by the day. This was deceptive. 

Mutiny on the Don – Russian civilians & Wagner Group mercenaries in Rostov-on-Don (Credit: Fargoh)

Threat Assessment – Instability & Insurrection
Nothing is ever as it seems in Putin’s Russia. That has been especially true since the war in Ukraine began. Trying to keep up the appearance of confidence and control had been difficult, but not impossible. At least not until the events of last week. Behind the Kremlin’s façade of stability, forces of mutiny were at work that threatened the regime. A rebellion was brewing as Yevgeny Prigozhin made plans to save his Wagner mercenary forces from assimilation into the Russian military. If this happened it would do grave damage to Prigozhin’s influence on the war, as well as his many nefarious business interests. Prigozhin took to plotting a way to get at his two main enemies. Western intelligence sources believe Prigozhin planned to kidnap Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov.

On numerous occasions, Prigozhin had vocally blamed them for gross misconduct of the war. He also attempted to cultivate the support of commanders in the Russian Military, most prominently Sergei Surovinikin. It has now been revealed that Surovikin had prior knowledge of Prigozhin’s plans. The mutiny did not go as planned, but it still lasted 24 astonishing hours. Between the mutiny’s start and its end on a road 200 kilometers south of Moscow so many shocking things happened, that even the most jaded observers of Russian affairs could not help but be astonished. The mutineers, Putin and the Kremlin put on a performance that will be remembered for a long time to come.

March for justice – Wagner route towards Moscow (Credit: Rr016)

The March For Justice – Mutiny On The Don
The mutiny started but did not end with Prigozhin who decided to take an estimated 5,000 Wagner mercenaries on what he termed a “march for justice.” This nom de guerre for the mutiny would be laughable if not for the fact that Prigozhin was somewhat successful. The march went according to plan in Rostov-on-Don where Wagner drove unimpeded into the center of the city, entered Russia’s Southern Military District headquarters without so much as firing a shot. Prigozhin then had a video recorded while he demanded to see Shoigu and Gerasimov. Both had predictably vanished. The most shocking part of this was how Prigozhin was met with Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister and a Deputy Chief of Staff while everyone else just stood around waiting to see what would happen. No one fired a shot.

This part of the mutiny was revealing. It was as though anyone with their own private army could takeover one of Russia’s most important military headquarters and meet with zero resistance. The lack of resistance would be a continuing theme. The military and security forces in Russia were in a wait and see mode. Some Wagner troops stayed put at the headquarters, while Prigozhin and others headed up the highway towards Voronezh. Along the way they had a clear lane for what looked to be a run all the way to Moscow. Resistance from the military and security forces was tepid at best. One violent incident did occur with an aerial assault on the Wagner convoy. The mutineers shot several helicopters and an airborne command center down, then continued along their merry way. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin was mostly missing in action except for a five-minute screed at which he turned on his former protégé Prigozhin. The subtext of Putin’s short speech was that there would be deadly consequences for the mutineers. Well maybe.

Putin is believed to have fled Moscow for St. Petersburg. A showdown of some sort looked to be in the works. That is if the Wagner convoy could avoid being delayed by such masterfully designed barriers as holes being dug in the highway by a steam shovel and buses parked in the road. This did little to Wagner troops armed with modern military weaponry, much of it given to them by the government they now threatened to upend. Just when things looked like they were going to get ultra-violent, Prigozhin called off the mutiny. A deal had been brokered by one of the most undiplomatic leaders in Europe, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko. The latter had been a mere puppet of Putin prior to the mutiny, now he was the strongman’s savior. Prigozhin would go to Belarus, Wagner troops could go with him or join the Russian military and Putin could come out of hiding to make another useless speech. One that according to his spokesman Dmitry Peskov, would decide the future of Russia.

Broken relationship – Vladimir Putin & Yevgeny Prigozhin when they were friends (Credit: Government of the Russian Federation)

Comedy of Errors – Only In Russia
The entire episode was nothing short of madness. No one could have sold a script to Hollywood with that storyline. The first thing that comes to mind is, “only in Russia.” This would be a dark comedy, if only the stakes were not so high. Russia has one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals. The idea that a bunch of mercenaries led by a sadist might come anywhere close to taking power in Russia is chilling in the extreme. Putin has been weakened to the point that any reassertion of control threatens another rebellion. Oddly, because he is still seen as the best guarantor of stability, Putin will probably garner enough support to stay in power.

How Putin tries to recover from the mutiny will be closely watched. There is no doubt he has been severely weakened, but there are few alternatives to Putin. What does it say about the situation in Russia when Vladimir Putin is the best option? This is a man who has weakened Russia to an extent not since the early 1990’s. His hold on power is increasingly tenuous. Russia is now closer to collapse than it has been since the dark days of Boris Yeltsin’s presidency. On top of this, the Kremlin continues to prosecute a war that they can neither win nor exit. The Russians have really outdone themselves with this latest act. What comes next is anyone’s guess and that includes those in charge. Those who now wonder how bad it can get in Russia should know one thing. It will only get worse.

Separation Anxiety – Eastern Europe & Post-Soviet Russia 1991 – 2000 (From Peace To War #2)

When the Soviet Union dissolved in December 1991 there was a decided lack of consternation. The Soviet idea was exhausted. Communism had been exposed as a hollow ideology that was delivering little more than misery to Soviet citizens. The constituent parts, including Russia, were ready to go their own way. Russia would still be closely aligned with Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, and Armenia. The Central Asian states would also be allies. Azerbaijan less so. Moldova was an odd outlier that would take some getting used to. The Russians assisted separatists in Transnistria, but they did not try to destroy Moldovan statehood. Anything west of the Dniester was deemed beyond their interest at the time. As for the Baltic states, they were ready to move closer to northern Europe and Scandinavia, giving the cold shoulder to anything that reeked of the Soviet Union and that included Russia. No longer would they be subservient states. Now their languages and cultures could finally flourish.

Separation Anxiety – Chechen fighter in Grozny during the First Chechen War
(Credit: Mikhail Evstafiev)

The Baltic States – Going Their Own Way
In the case of the Baltic states a westward shift in geopolitical orientation was to be expected. Not only had they achieved statehood between the First and Second Worlds Wars, but they were ethnically distinct from Slavs. Even though the Baltics large proportions of Russians that had been resettled there in the decades following World War II, they had differing ideas from Russia on politics and economics. Their cultures were also exclusive of the dominant Russian culture which had been imposed upon them for four and a half decades. The break was not clean or easy, but the Baltics managed to pull away from Russia in the post-1991 environment.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania would eventually achieve membership in both the European Union and NATO. Russia did not like their movement towards the west, but during the 1990’s it had major economic problems that were much more pressing than trying to keep a tight leash on the Baltics. The fact that the Baltics went their own way and the Russians failed to put up without much of a fight fooled many into thinking that Russia was becoming a normal state. That their imperialist and nationalist impulses were fading. This was not true as later events would show, but internal problems kept Russia from causing many issues with their near abroad in the immediate post-Soviet period.

Going their own way – Riga in Latvia is the largest city in the Baltics (Credit: Diego Delso)

Falling Apart – Tumultuous Times
The oddest and most incredible thing about the Soviet Union’s disintegration was how quickly it disappeared without the usual spasms that occur when empires fall. Other 20^th century empires that had collapsed were laid low by violence and societal upheaval. The German and Austro-Hungarian Empires both fell apart due to the strains caused by World War I. The Soviet Union’s predecessor, the Russian Empire, came to an extremely violent end. First on the Eastern Front during World War I, then during the Russian Civil War where millions lost their lives. Even the British Empire’s collapse saw violent excesses committed in Kenya and other former colonies. The Soviet Union’s breakup into a multiplicity of nation-states did not lead to the kind of chaos and calamity that might have been expected. Russia – now in the throes of a neo-imperialist war in Ukraine – was too distracted in the 1990’s to deeply involve themselves in the affairs of Kyiv, Minsk, Tbilisi or Yerevan.

Russia’s leadership was trying to keep it from falling apart in the same manner as the Soviet Union. To that end, the Kremlin felt compelled to fight a war in Chechnya against separatists. This did not result in a resounding victory, instead a humiliating defeat ensued. This showed just how weak the Russian state had become. That weakness had a great deal to do with Russia staying away from adventures beyond its own borders. Up until the turn of the 21^st century, post-Soviet Russia was too weak to control its near abroad. This weakness was mistaken by the western world for a general movement towards normalcy. The imperial impulse in Russia seemed to be the preserve of a crazed nationalist fringe. There were similarities with post-1989 Eastern Europe where nation-states freed from the yoke of communism all seemed to have an uber-nationalist element. In these cases, words spoke louder than actions.

The lack of follow through had a great deal to do with the size of Eastern European nations. For instance, in Hungary there was a proportion of the population that would have loved to recover Transylvania and southern Slovakia. The problem for these nationalists was that Hungary never had a population of more than ten million people. No matter how many Hungarians felt that their nation had been wronged by the postwar Treaty of Trianon, Hungary did not have anywhere close to the resources needed to recover these territories even if a majority of the population would have supported it. Thus, the nationalists were limited to lamenting the loss of Greater Hungary. The same was certainly not true for Russia, a nation with vast natural and human resources. Any leader that could harness these resources to a nationalist ideal could take action to attempt a recreation of a neo-Russian empire. This is what many in Eastern Europe feared, nowhere more so than the Baltic states which would not stand a chance against a revanchist Russia. The same was true for smaller states such as Georgia and Armenia.

Headed in a different direction – Boris Yeltsin & Vladimir Putin

The Rise of Putin – Authoritarian Tendencies
When Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000, Russia had a leader who could restore the power of the state to make it formidable, not just inside Russia, but also in its near abroad.  This was the beginning of a movement that would lead to a Russian resurgence in militarism. Russia was not able to get its own house in order during the 1990’s. Nowhere was this clearer than in Chechnya. The First Chechen War had been a debacle that exposed Russia’s military and political weakness. Putin knew if he wanted to stay in power for long, the first thing he would have to do is reestablish central control of the country. The best way of doing this was by being completely ruthless. Weak rulers that do not display a take no prisoners mentality – such as Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin – often end up on the wrong side of Russian history. Putin was determined that this would not happen to him. He set about consolidating his power.

Click here for: A Game of Risk – Eastern Europe & Russia 2000 – 2013 (From Peace To War #3)