Two Faced – The Decline & Fall of Sergei Surovikin (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #354c)

Sergei Surovikin has always had a presence about him. You could see it, even from thousands of kilometers and an ocean away. He looked brutish and unsparing, as though he was at his happiest while pummeling an insignificant conscript into submission. There is chauvinism and then there was Surovikin. His hulking presence, grim scowl, and thuggish demeanor made quite an impression. That always seemed to be the point. Intimidate and obliterate. A butcher who enjoyed the application of overwhelming force, preferably against civilians. Surovikin did not smile, he smirked. The problem with this image of Surovikin, was that he looked like a serious man in a rather ridiculous way.

With his egg-shaped head that blended seamlessly into a perpetually glowering facial expression, Surovikin bore a striking resemblance to a cartoonish movie villain or a past his prime pro wrestler. His affectation of self-conscious toughness was either extremely frightening or a fallacy depending upon one’s perspective. Surovikin looked incredibly sinister, until you noticed the perpetual pudginess. For all his swagger, there was always something rather absurd about Surovikin. He was the living, breathing embodiment of a caricature. The tough guy who seems too menacing to be true. Surovikin’s persona screamed that he would not go down without a fight and planned to take everyone else with him. That is what he wanted everyone to believe. Most did until late June. That was when it became apparent that Surovikin did live up to his cultivated image. He went down without a fight. That is unless you count a bizarre cameo appearance he made during the Prigozhin Mutiny.

Keeping a low profile – Sergei Surovikin and his wife together

Photo Finishes – Missing Person’s Report
There are two recent images of Surovikin which will be hard to forget. That is because these are the only images of Surovikin known to exist between June 24th and September 4^th. These are likely to be among the last images we see of him. For a military man whose hulking figure loomed over the Ukraine-Russia War not so long ago, Surovikin’s vanishing act is symptomatic of his decline and fall. While Surovikin is one of many Russian military commanders to fall out of favor with the Kremlin during the war, he may end up being the most important. Surovikin was competent in military matters. The same cannot be said when it comes to mutiny. The last two images of Surovikin are reflections of this. The first shows a man on the edge. A commander using his position of authority to impress upon Russia’s rank and file the need to stay loyal.

The second image shows Surovikin transformed. He looks like he is on an extended vacation. A diminished figure searching for anonymity, but try as he might, his sizable figure still makes him noticeable. The contrast between the two is telling. What is even more fascinating is that these photos connect the flipsides of Surovikin’s fate. In a matter of six and a half months he went from supreme Russian commander in Ukraine to a missing person. On June 24^th, Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenary forces walked right into Russia’s Southern Military Headquarters in Rostov-on-Don without firing a shot. They were on a mission to remove Valery Gerasimov, the commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine, and Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Minister of Defense. Not finding either of them there, they proceeded to head north towards Moscow.

Mutiny on the Don – Yevgeny Prigozhin & Wagner forces at Southern Military Headquarters

Bizarre Behavior – A Guilty Conscious
Amid this bizarre mutiny, official sources in Russia released a video of Surovikin calling for Russian troops to stay loyal to the Kremlin. The video’s quality is good, but the presentation is poor. That is due to the woeful acting skills of Surovikin. In the video, he is dressed in fatigues and brandishes a gun while speaking directly to the camera. There was the usual scowl, but something seemed not quite right with him. There is a noticeable tension in his demeanor. Surovikin’s star turn eerily resembles that of Private Leonard in Full Metal Jacket. Specifically, the scene where Leonard is found in the bathroom by one of his fellow soldiers with his rifle locked and loaded. Leonard ends up gunning down his drill sergeant.

Surovikin’s designs in his video were quite different. His later arrest would reveal that Surovikin was privy to information about the Prigozhin Mutiny before it occurred. What exactly Surovikin knew is unknown, but there is little doubt he was trying to save himself with his video. Appearing in the equivalent of a public service announcement in support of the Putin regime did not impress the Kremlin. The video raised suspicions, both in Russia and abroad, the moment it appeared. Surovikin was the only high ranking Russian military commander to film such a message. It was a hapless attempt to look like a loyalist when Surovikin had been acting in his own interests and most importantly, against those of the Kremlin. Soon thereafter, he was detained for questioning and disappeared. In August he was relieved of his position as commander of Aerospace Forces. During this time, various sources stated that Surovikin was either taking a rest or under house arrest. Whatever the case, his role in the Prigozhin Mutiny effectively halted his military career. There was conjecture that Surovikin might soon turn up dead. He certainly would not have been the first Russian commander since the war started in Ukraine, to die in mysterious circumstances. 

Making his case – Sergei Surovikin during the Prigozhin Mutiny

On Permanent Leave – Time Off Award
Surovikin finally reappeared on September 4^th when an image of his wife and him was published on a Russian Telegram channel. This showed Surovikin wearing sunglasses, a denim hat, dressed in casual clothing and looking like he did not want to be noticed. The fierce general now looked like a man on permanent rest and relaxation. If there is such a thing for those who betray the Kremlin. Surovikin was a bit thinner than usual, but otherwise looked to be in good health. Geolocation showed that the photo was taken on the western outskirts of Moscow. One interesting thing to note is that Surovikin reappeared in public after Yevgeny Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash. Prior to that, his whereabouts were unknown. It has been reported that while Surovikin no longer has any active role in the Russian military, he has not lost his rank. His role in the war is most likely over, but for now his life is not. It will be interesting to see whether his decline and fall eventually proves fatal.

Click here for: Victors Die Too – Ukraine Counts The Cost (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #355)

Shoigu & Gerasimov Backstory – The Decline & Fall of Surovikin (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #354b)

Vladimir Putin might be lacking in military experience, but there is little doubt that he ascribes to the offensive. After all, he was the one who made the ultimate decision to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. What he termed “a special military operation” was supposed to last only three days. If the whole thing got a little untidy, perhaps it might last a week. Putin, along with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, set Russian forces up for a colossal failure with such a high-speed strategy. The troops were poorly led, badly equipped, and tactically oblivious. The result was defeat in the Battle of Kyiv and a military effort in other parts of Ukraine that enjoyed very little success. This led him to make Sergei Surovikin the commander of all Russian military forces in Ukraine.

Architects of Defeat – Valery Gerasimov & Sergei Shoigu (both in gray) (Credit: Kremlin.ru)

The Internal War – Powers of Persuasion
By October 2022, Russian forces were bogged down on all fronts in Ukraine, Putin then turned to Surovikin in the belief that he would be the cure for what ailed Russian forces. Putin was in dire need of victories. At this point, any victory would do. Morale in the Russian ranks was already low and believed to be sinking further. Surovikin was put in charge of what amounted to a military salvage operation. He had a history of prosecuting brutal military campaigns. Putin expected great things to follow. Surovikin did not live up to expectations. His strategy involved stabilizing the front. This meant going on the defensive, even though such an idea was distasteful and defeatist to the Kremlin. Such a strategy promised a long, cold winter with Russian forces shivering in the trenches. Strategic withdrawal from Kherson and development of a formidable defensive posture along the front were the best Surovikin could do. This did not endear him to Putin.

Meanwhile, Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov were prosecuting an internal offensive to retake control of the military by undermining Surovikin. They insinuated themselves back into Putin’s good graces. Their goal was to make Surovikin the odd man out. Shoigu had a huge advantage since he had been one of Putin’s longest lasting cronies. Gerasimov had Shoigu in his corner. Surovikin only had the vocal support of Yevgeny Prigozhin. Though Prigozhin’s Wagner forces were heavily engaged in the fighting at Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, Prigozhin was not part of the regular military hierarchy, nor was he a true Kremlin insider. Prigozhin’s power came from his personal relationship with Putin. While Surovikin and Prigozhin were heavily involved in combat operations at the front, Shoigu and Gerasimov were persuading Putin to put them back in charge. It did not take long for their efforts to prove successful.

Powers of persuasion – Vladimir Putin & Sergei Shoigu meeting (Credit: premier.gov.ru)

Disastrous Duo – Shoigu & Gerasimov
On January 11^th, Surovikin was demoted from commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine. He would now be a deputy to Valery Gerasimov. This demotion must have stung. Three months was hardly enough time for Surovikin to prove himself, but by any reasonable standard of military strategy, he had done a competent job. His replacement was the complete opposite. Gerasimov was widely perceived in the West as a Kremlin flunky. The kind of loyalist who owes his position more to connections than merit. Gerasimov and Shoigu had been thick as thieves for years. Judging by the corruption that hollowed out much of the Russian military prior to the war, they were both extremely well versed in theft. What they were not well versed in was sound military strategy. Shoigu was never a career soldier. He has presided over massive corruption as Minister of Defense. Gerasimov’s entire career has been spent in the military with few notable successes. Many blamed him for the botched initial invasion that bogged down north of Kyiv. It had his fingerprints all over it.

If Vladimir Putin was the architect of the geopolitically disastrous decision to launch the full-scale invasion, Gerasimov and Shoigu were the architects of the initial military debacle. Now they were back in charge with Putin’s blessing after the demotion of Surovkin. The duo might not be able to formulate a winning strategy against Ukrainian forces, but they did win the internal battle in the Kremlin for control of the military. Surovikin was not aggressive enough during his three-month tenure as the overall commander. For the sake of the Russian military’s continued viability in the war, Surovikin could not afford to be overly aggressive. That was why he withdrew Russian forces from Kherson and implemented a defense in depth strategy. Surovikin’s reputation as a butcher did not extend to his own forces.

The upshot was that Shoigu and Gerasimov used Surovikin’s strategically sound decisions against him to regain control. This also dealt a blow to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner Group who was a fervent supporter of Surovikin. Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries were also left on the outside looking in. This would be true even after Wagner’s forces secured one of the few Russian victories of the war at the Battle of Bakhmut. The results of this effort, just like Surovikin’s work on developing defensive lines. were enjoyed by Gerasimov and Shoigu. Prigozhin was furious that Wagner did not get the credit he felt they deserved. Surovikin stayed silent and appeared to be the loyal deputy. He must have been seething with discontent. As for Gerasimov and Shoigu, after being put back in charge they attempted an offensive. This only succeeded in getting more Russian forces killed and valuable equipment captured or destroyed.

Less than dynamic duo – Vladimir Putin & Sergei Shoigu (Credit: Mil.ru)

Turning Point – Readying For Revolt
The offensive was another in a long line of poorly conceived and executed military operations. The only thing it accomplished was satisfying Putin’s need to be on the attack. Once again, the Russian military had failed in Ukraine. What made this time worse was the fact that Gerasimov and Shoigu were repeat offenders. Prigozhin could not disguise his anger. He repeatedly made incendiary remarks directed at both Shoigu and Gerasimov. He would have liked nothing more than to see both replaced, perhaps with Surovikin. Unfortunately, Shoigu and Gerasimov had Putin on their side. This was an insuperable barrier unless something drastic happened. That something turned out to be the Prigozhin Mutiny.

Click here for: Two Faced – The Decline & Fall of Sergei Surovikin (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #354c)

Invisible Man – The Decline & Fall of Sergei Surovikin (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #354a)

Now you see him, now you don’t. That pretty much sums up Sergei Surovikin’s role in the Ukraine-Russia War. After making a cameo appearance during the Prigozhin mutiny he disappeared from public view for over two months. This past week, Surovikin finally reappeared looking less like a soldier and more like a man on an extended vacation. His fall from one of the most powerful positions in Russia has been abrupt. It all started last October when the man known as “General Armageddon” was selected by Vladimir Putin to be the commander of all Russian military forces in Ukraine. Surovikin was lauded as a long-sought savior who would correct the Russian military’s numerous deficiencies in Ukraine.

Surovikin’s reputation for ruthlessness preceded him. He had made the enemies of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad scream for mercy and then responded by showing them none. Surovikin had left a trail of carnage and ruin behind in Syria that gave him a well-deserved reputation as a menacing brute. He looked the part as well with his shaved head, perpetual scowl, and hulking physique. The Kremlin wanted Surovikin to bring the same type of sadistic determination to bear on the war in Ukraine. There was an expectation that Surovikin’s appointment would finally turn the war in Russia’s favor as he bent the battlefield to his will. There was only one problem, Surovikin’s tenure was much like everything else in Russia’s war against Ukraine, it did not go as planned.

Reputation for Ruthlessness – Sergei Surovikin

Strategic Retreat – A Calculated Withdrawal
When Surovikin took command, he inherited a mess. Russian forces were in an untenable position west of the Dnipro River in and around the city of Kherson. They were slowly being surrounded by Ukrainian forces which were continuously moving forward. A siege looked inevitable. With bridges over the Dnipro threatened with destruction, Russian forces risked being cut off. Surovikin assessed the situation and decided the only way Russian forces would live to fight another day was by withdrawing to the east bank of the Dnipro. This was controversial because Russian forces would be surrendering Kherson. Surovikin might have had a reputation as a butcher, but unlike others in the Russian high command he was also competent. This was the only viable strategy if Russia wanted to preserve some of its most experienced troops. 

Surovikin was able to convince Vladimir Putin to allow a withdrawal to the east side of the Dnipro. This was carried out flawlessly. By the extremely low standard set by Russian troops in Ukraine, the operation was one of their best. The problem was that the Russians were retreating and leaving behind the only capital of a Ukrainian province they had managed to occupy since the invasion began. If the war taught both sides one thing, it is that once a piece of territory is lost, taking it back requires a massive sacrifice of men and material.  Retreat was not something the Kremlin had in mind when they first invaded Ukraine, nor when they put Surovikin in charge of Russian military forces.  From Surovikin’s perspective, he was working to stabilize an untenable situation. Russia had already suffered its greatest loss of the war that September when Ukrainian forces broke through Russian lines in the Kharkiv Counteroffensive and routed them. Surovikin knew that Russian forces could not afford to suffer another defeat of that magnitude again.

Frontal assault – Sergei Surovikin & Vladimir Putin

Cannon Fodder – In The Line of Fire
Surovikin’s efforts did not endear him to the Kremlin. The duo most culpable for Russian defeats in Ukraine, Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov saw an opportunity to insinuate themselves back into leading the Russian military. Surovikin had put his stamp on Russian military operations in Ukraine, but he would be demoted in January, only three months after his appointment as overall commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. Surovikin was subordinated to Gerasimov, who along with Sergei Shoigu have been the architects of defeat throughout the war. This did not matter because Gerasimov and Shoigu are Kremlin cronies whose main accomplishment has been to show blind loyalty to Putin. That matters much more than competence. The Ukrainians had to be breathing a sigh of relief with Surovikin no longer in charge.
  
It is likely that Gerasimov assumed command with a promise to Putin to go on the offensive before Ukraine could begin their own counteroffensive in the spring. Shoigu, who has very limited military experience, would have encouraged this as well. A Russian offensive went ahead with predictably poor results. They made few gains, while incurring large losses. The lone bright spot was the Battle of Bakhmut. The overwhelming majority of the fighting at Bakhmut was done by Wagner mercenary forces whose leader Yevgeny Prigozhin guaranteed a victory. Success cost Wagner thousands of former prisoners turned soldiers who were used as cannon fodder. Wagner forces eventually secured a victory, but in the process were left decimated.

Dictatorial designs – Vladimir Putin, Bashar Assad & Sergei Surovikin (Credit: Milru)

Isolated & Infuriated – Common Cause
Prigozhin had previously been complimentary of Surovikin’s appointment when he had been selected as overall commander of Russian forces. Prigozhin knew Surovikin from their time together in Syria where Wagner forces were heavily involved in the fighting. Prigozhin loathed Gerasimov and Shoigu, more so after Wagner forces got cut to pieces at Bakhmut. Prigozhin believed that Gerasimov and Shoigu purposely held back support for Wagner troops. Refusing to supply them with ammunition and ensuring that Russian forces took a step back during the battle. Prigozhin’s collection of prisoners and guns for hire had done most of the dirty work. Bakhmut was a Wagner victory, more than a Russian military one. Gerasimov and Shoigu were not about to give Prigozhin credit. The latter was infuriated. He began taking verbal shots at Gerasimov and Shoigu. As spring went on, Prigozhin’s comments turned increasingly vicious. At some point during this time, Prigozhin and Surovikin made common cause. Whenever that happened their fates became inextricably intertwined in what would become one of the most bizarre episodes of the entire war.

Click here for: Shoigu & Gerasimov Backstory – The Decline & Fall of Surovikin (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #354b)

Back In Business – Prigozhin: The Sequel (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #334b)

I was never a fan of sequels. Then again, who is? It is axiomatic that the second film in a series is almost always worse than a famous first effort. They often leave viewers puzzled as to why another film was made. Sequels are derivative and redundant. The plot is no longer original. Characters morph into something they were not originally meant to be. The story arcs are prone to odd contortions while trying to maintain continuity with the original. These make little sense and are either ridiculous or predictable. And yet, audiences still pack theaters to watch sequels. Very rarely do they equal the crowds that show up for the first film, but enough go to make sequels a highly profitable enterprise. If the original film was good enough, people will come back to experience a semblance of the same thing once again. Nevertheless, it is universally acknowledged that sequels pale in comparison to the original film.

Seat at the table – Yevgeny Prigozhin and Vladimir Putin

Acting Out – The Plot Thickens
There is a sequel now playing at the highest levels of Russian politics. Last week it had a world premiere at the hotel in St. Petersburg. Appearing on the not so red carpet was Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose last starring role was an unforgettable performance as the leader of a band of malevolent mutineers in the form of his Wagner Group ensemble. Mutiny on the Don captured the world’s attention on June 23^rd and 24^th as Prigozhin and an unlikely band of war criminals came closer than anyone to threatening Vladimir Putin’s grip on power. Audiences across the world were astonished by Prigozhin and his less than merry band of mercenaries as they acted out an ad hoc scheme to march into Moscow. Once there, they planned to give the highest echelons of the Russian military a first-class ass kicking.

This was incredible theater that kept audiences gripped to Telegram channels and Twitter accounts, the social media services that endlessly stream war. Everyone was glued to their iPhones and Androids as they watched Mutiny on the Don until it turned out to be a Russian ruse. They had just spent 36 hours watching what they thought was a rebellion before the storyline took a turn towards the sublime when the whole thing was suddenly called off. This was a deeply unsatisfying conclusion. Audiences were left disappointed. This left the chance of a sequel slim to none. Prigozhin’s career as a mutineer was done. His future would most likely be arrest, imprisonment and something the Kremlin could call an accident. He was thought to be as good as dead. It was assumed that his Wagner mercenary forces would be relegated to a backlot, where they would become cannon fodder on demand.

No one came out of this performance looking good. The Kremlin was exposed as a sideshow. The performance of its long-time lead, Vladimir Putin, was universally panned by critics. He would continue in his role as Russian President, but his days of the world’s fate were over. His career had been waning for some time. Audiences had once seen Putin as the epitome of power. He was now exposed as a feeble and floundering autocrat well past his prime. Nothing to see here.  The slow, inexorable decline of Putin would be best if it happened off-screen. That was where he had been for most of the mutiny anyway. The one time he appeared, Putin came across as a hectoring incompetent.

Survival instinct – Yevgeny Prigozhin

Perilous Plans – Own Worst Enemies
As for Prigozhin, he had ultimately proven to be just as much of a disappointment. Villains should go down in a blaze of glory, sticking with their sinister ways until they flame out. Prigozhin turned out to be a less than masterful manipulator. He could not ultimately follow through with his plan. He decided to save himself rather than pursue power at any cost. Prigozhin had promised so much and delivered so little. A sequel with him starring was the furthest thing from anyone’s mind. Viewers do not want to see characters acting like their own worst enemies. Prigozhin had previously been seen as wily, malevolent, and sadistic. Now he looked like a hapless coward, self-obsessed and foolishly ambitious. Not the stuff stars are made of. It was time to put Prigozhin out to pasture. Then the comeback began. Putin and Prigozhin took it upon themselves to start a new storyline. This one would be almost as improbable as Mutiny on the Don. Rather than being run off the set, Putin is allowing Prigozhin to return to the spotlight.

Prigozhin’s reentrance to the dregs of Russian society came via the 2023 Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg. The event was less sensational than it sounds, especially compared to last year. Fewer African leaders and officials were in attendance. Putin has managed to upset many of them by reneging on the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Stopping Ukrainian grain exports to Africa is a receipt for famine. This threatens long suffering states both north and south of the Sahara with widespread hunger and unrest. African officials that stayed away from the summit did not want to be seen in league with Russia. The upshot was yet another underwhelming performance on the international stage for Putin, whose career continues in perpetual decline.

Taken by surprise – Vladimir Putin

Customer Service – Taking Care of Business
The one aspect of the summit which caused a sensation was the reappearance of Prigozhin. One of the photos shared (obviously intentional) showed the mutineer-in-chief gripping the hand of the Central African Republic’s Protocol Officer. Prigozhin looked well rested and ready to do business. In blue jeans and a polo shirt, Prigozhin’s casual dress belied someone who seemed to be enjoying himself. And why not? He had not only managed to survive his failed mutiny, but Prigozhin was back dealing with one of his best customers. The Central African Republic’s government has availed itself of Wagner Group’s services to the detriment of its citizens. Prigozhin is back to pursuing his business interests. A sequel looks to already be in the works. While it is doubtful that Prigozhin’s return will live up to expectations, the story continues whether anyone wants it too or not. What happens next is anyone’s guess? This sequel might not be good, but it will certainly be intriguing.

Click here for: Hitting Them Where It Hurts – Ukrainian Attacks on Chonhar Bridge & Moscow (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #335)

Let’s Make A Deal – Prigozhin’s Return & Putin’s Folly (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #334a)

Two things came to mind when I saw a photo of Yevgeny Prigozhin shaking hands with an official of the Central African Republic at a hotel in St. Petersburg, Russia. The first was that mutiny has never looked so pleasant. The other was how the mighty have fallen. The pleasant demeanor is in reference to Prigozhin 2.0. The post-mutineer man about town, still wheeling and dealing in sinister fashion. The second reference is to the decline, but not yet the fall of the man Prigozhin’s mutiny irreparably weakened, Vladimir Putin.

Back in business – Yevgeny Prigozhin with an official of the Central African Republic in St Petersburg

Lost Highway – Russian Road Trip
Only five weeks ago, Prigozhin was enjoying raucous support in Rostov-On-Don. He and his fellow mutineers followed this up with a march on Moscow. They were on the ultimate Russian road trip. Their destination was wherever they could find Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the Commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov. Along the way they shot down some helicopters and planes of the Russian military while enjoying an avenue of advance that looked like it would lead all the way to Moscow. The mercenaries, who had previously been seen as nothing more than the essence of Russian malevolence in Ukraine, were on the verge of becoming conquering heroes of their own country. Ready and willing to make command changes in the Russian military at the point of a gun barrel or go down in flames.

Meanwhile, the whereabouts of Vladimir Putin were an open question. Finally, he made an angry speech, promising to put an end to the mutiny. Everyone knows what happened next. Prigozhin was talked out of his revolt by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko with promises of being given a safe haven in Belarus. This turnabout in fortunes was just as astonishing as the march on Moscow. No one could quite believe what happened. Making sense of it was an exercise in speculation about shadowy machinations in the Kremlin. The result of this seriously ridiculous string of events was that neither Prigozhin nor Putin was a winner. The mutiny was either a serious threat to Putin’s rule or a shameless charade by a rogue elite desperately trying to maintain his wealth and power. It turned out to be a combination of both.

Dubious intentions – Vladimir Putin at Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg

Marked Man – Putting Prigozhin In His Place
In the days and weeks which followed the mutiny, speculation was rife as to the whereabouts of Prigozhin. There were reports that he was lurking around St. Petersburg, seen in Moscow, and hanging out at a hotel near Minsk. Kremlinologists felt that Prigozhin had done himself in with the mutiny. They opined that this was something Putin would never tolerate. It was bad enough that a princeling undermined Putin’s rule in the middle of a war gone horribly wrong. Making it that much worse was the mutiny occurring just a couple of weeks after Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive began. The last thing that Putin needed was yet another problem. Surely, he would put Prigozhin in his place which would be in a coffin six feet underground.

Putin had shown signs of barely controlled anger in the televised appearances he made during and just after the mutiny. Though he did not specifically name Prigozhin during these appearances, it was obvious who Putin was referring to when he used the word “treason.” This was tantamount to a death sentence being rendered on Prigozhin before the Russian public. In the past, Putin has acted as prosecutor, judge, and jury on anyone who threatened to undermine his rule. It was assumed he would do the same thing to Prigozhin. The wayward henchman would either be murdered by the security services or put in prison for the rest of what would most likely be a very short existence.

Prigozhin was thought to be a man living on borrowed time. If there is one thing Putin has valued above all else during his long and murderous career, it has been loyalty. Prigozhin and Wagner mercenaries had committed an unforgivable sin. They were now being labeled as enemies of the Russian state. Putin was getting ready to dole out his own merciless brand of justice. Dire consequences were sure to follow, or so everyone thought. It was not to be.

Belarus bound – Wagner mercenaries

Wheeling & Dealing – Less Than All Powerful
In another unpredictable turn of events, the Kremlin’s chief spokesman and Putin mouthpiece, Dimitry Peskov, stated that Putin had met with Wagner Group commanders, including Prigozhin, in the Kremlin. Rather than having them arrested or murdered, Putin played a Kremlin version of Let’s Make A Deal. This extremely dangerous game has been played many times before over the last 23 years with Putin always the winner. In this case, he offered Wagner commanders and their forces a couple of options. One was an opportunity to join the Russian military and fight for the same organization they held in utter contempt. Or they could go to Belarus and do whatever Lukashenko had in mind for them. Prigozhin would no longer lead them into battle in Ukraine. Furthermore, they would no longer fight in Ukraine. They chose the Belarusian option. With this, Prigozhin’s power was seemingly checked, but if so, why was Putin allowing him into the gilded halls of the Kremlin? And why was Prigozhin being seen in St. Petersburg and Moscow? He was still a free man.

In this case, the all-powerful and autocrat Putin turned out to be nothing of the sort. He was still in charge, but Putin compromised his own position. Why he did this is not clear. Putin must have believed that he had to make a deal. No one had come to his aid during the mutiny. Killing Prigozhin might lead to another uprising. This was a chance that Putin could not afford to take. For someone who prides himself on projecting power and has spent the 21st century cultivating a tough guy image, this was humiliating. This was the latest in a long list of embarrassments that Putin has suffered since the full-scale of Ukraine began.

Prigozhin and Wagner were given an exit strategy and they took it. Prigozhin was thought to be done in Russia. In a televised address, Putin let all of Russia in a not so well-kept secret, specifically that the Russian government had supplied Wagner Group with massive financial support. He did not have to say Prigozhin’s name for everyone to know what he meant. The chief mutineer had robbed the state’s coffers and then turned on his donor. State television also got in on the anti-Prigozhin propaganda, taking their own shots. Prigozhin was on his way to becoming persona non grata. This was the way Putin dealt with Prigozhin and the mutiny. Truth be told, he was not dealing with it at all. The one positive was that Prigozhin would be out of Russia. At least that was what everyone thought. No one thought there would be a sequel to the sublime show the world had just witnessed. They were wrong.

Click here for: Back In Business – Prigozhin: The Sequel (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #334b)

Terminal Decline – Vladimir Putin Version 2020 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #328b)

The signs of fragility in Vladimir Putin’s regime has been exposed by the war in Ukraine. The military can do no right, endemic corruption has rotted every Russian institution to its core, and the media has long since ceased being anything more than a mouthpiece for the regime. These traits have manifested themselves in a series of astonishing military debacles from the Battle of Kyiv to the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Region and the Russian Army’s withdrawal from Kherson. One humiliation has been followed by another. And the situation continues to get worse.

The Prigozhin mutiny showed the world just how shallow the Putin regime had become. Its support inside Russia, once deep and all-encompassing, was now shallow and dubious. A couple of weeks after the mutiny stunned the world, the Kremlin’s spokesperson Dimitry Peskov made an equally stunning announcement. Peskov, a man who makes pathological liars look honest, felt the need to announce that Putin met with Prigozhin and 35 Wagner commanders to give them his assessment of their performance. This included references to their conduct in the mutiny. With this revelation, it seems Putin has reduced himself to the role of middle manager, giving those who vehemently disagree with his prosecution of the war a performance review. This is Vladimir Putin Version 2020, old, tired, out of touch and forced by circumstance to assimilate internal enemies.

Grim outlook – Vladimir Putin Version 2020

Unjust Rewards – A Forced Compromise
Putin’s meeting with the Wagnerites was a Kremlin version of “can’t we all get along.” The song “Why can’t we be friends?” would have been an appropriate soundtrack accompanying Putin’s assessment of Wagner’s performance. This was the loser-in-chief lecturing the only Russian force to win a battle since the war’s initial months. Of course, Wagner’s victory at Bakhmut got the majority of its forces shot to pieces. Their victory was pyrrhic at best. The mutineers felt they deserved respect and a larger say in the war’s conduct. Like the rest of Russia, the only thing Prigozhin and his Wagner troops got more of was Vladimir Putin. An unjust reward for their mutinous behavior.

As for Putin, he was, is, and will continue to be the great loser in the mutiny. Prigozhin and an estimated 5,000 of his soldiers did irreparable damage to Putin’s rule. In the space of just twenty-four hours, they undermined the foundation of his regime. There was no need for this to happen, but Putin let it happen because he did not know what else to do when faced with a challenge from the hard right. The fact that Putin decided to meet with the mutineers seems shocking, until one realizes that he had little choice. Failure to deal with the mutineers by compromise makes Putin look weak. This is the worst thing that could happen to him. The fact that it occurred just as Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive was getting started has turned the entire saga into Putin’s worst nightmare.

Compliments of the chef – Yevgeny Prigozhin serves Vladimir Putin back when they were friends

Bad News – The Hits Keep Coming
2023 has brought Putin one bad piece of news after another. This has included a failed offensive, sustained western support for Ukraine in the form of more lethal and technologically superior weaponry, a continued high rate of Russian losses at the front, an enlarged NATO, murmurs of domestic discontent with the war, and little more than verbal support from Russia’s few allies. The most incredible thing is not that all this happened to Putin, but because of Putin. His poor decision making has led to this state of affairs. Ironically, Putin’s inability to make difficult decisions is now exacerbating it. The next most incredible thing is that the Russian army continues to fight, even when they have no idea what they are fighting for. Keeping Putin in power is not an inspiring goal for Russian forces, but that is what they have reduced to fighting for.

Why are Russian forces in Ukraine? Putin has failed to answer that question except with his usual incendiary accusations of faux Ukrainian fascism and a conspiracy of the western world to encroach on Russia’s sphere of influence. In an astonishing turn of events, the Putin regime’s sphere of influence inside Russia is now waning. Their influence in geopolitics has been severely curtailed.  NATO is ascendant. Finland has joined the alliance and Sweden will any day now. Ukraine is now on track to eventually join NATO as well as the European Union, Putin wanted to weaken Ukraine, but instead he managed to unite it and at the same time, fatally weakened his own regime. Everything in the regime is now in flux.

Alone at the bottom – Valdimir Putin with Russian military officers in the background

Questionable Loyalties – Survival Instincts
Loyalties have been called into question, leadership is lacking at every level of politics and the military. The economy is teetering. Ukraine is being feted this week at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. In the past, Russia was menacing Eastern Europe. Now NATO is solidifying a 21^st century Eastern Bloc against Russia. Plans are being set in place to provide a more credible military deterrent in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Putin is floundering. He no longer projects confidence. Putin looks like a man waiting for something worse to happen. Putin 2020 will likely be the last version of him we see. His regime is in decline. This should make him more dangerous. Judging by his response to the mutiny it only makes him look more hapless and helpless. Whatever else happens to Putin and his regime in 2023, it is not likely to be good. Putin has nothing to look forward to during the rest of the year, but more problems.

For the first time ever, Putin is extremely vulnerable. Judging by the first half of the year, he should be worried. Putin Version 2020 is doing damage control, Russia’s elites are in survival mode, the Russian military is on the defensive and the populace is indifferent. This has all the hallmarks of the Brezhnev era in the Soviet Union, a long, slow decline. The one complicating factor in this scenario is the war in Ukraine. How Putin handles the war, or more to this point decides not to handle the war, will go a long way in deciding the future of Russia. As for Putin’s future, that has already been decided. It is bleak.

Coming soon: Show of Strength – Erdogan Turns To The West (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #329)

The Show Must Go On – Vladimir Putin Version 2020 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #328a)

2022 was a terrible year for Vladimir Putin, 2023 is looking even worse. Putin has now faced down a mutiny. He did not defeat it with his usual weapons of choice such as open windows, poison, or radioactive substances. Instead, Putin feigned outrage and then proceeded to turn a cold shoulder toward the culprits. Belarus’ usually hapless dictator, Aleksandr Lukashenko, ended up bailing out Putin. At least that is the story for now. This narrative is liable to change. Unfortunately, change in the Russian leadership looks unlikely to occur. Nevertheless, lack of a decisive response from Putin confused Kremlinologists. This was out of character for a man who spent two decades cultivating a tough guy persona. Putin usually deals with those who oppose him by bankrupting, imprisoning, and sometimes murdering them. In this case, he did nothing of the sort.

Compliments of the chef – Vladimir Putin & Yevgeny Prigozhin together in earlier times (Credit: Government of the Russian Federation)

The Aftermath – Mutiny On The Don
The post-mutiny plot thickened this week when it was revealed that Putin met with Yevgeny Prigozhin and 35 other Wagner commanders, just five days after the latter and his disgruntled band of mutineers took over Russia’s Southern Military District in Rostov-On-Don without firing a shot. The Wagner troops were subsequently given VIP treatment by crowds of gawking locals watching in wide eyed amazement as events unfolded. The mutineers then proceeded to head north on a lightning strike that would put the Barbarossa blitzkrieg to shame. They only met light resistance on their journey towards Moscow. A small aerial force from the Russian military made a futile attempt to stop the mutineers. This only resulted in yet another embarrassing loss for Russian military forces in a war filled with them. They also encountered some tepidly formed highway barricades and torn up sections of road courtesy of a steam shovel sent to draw a line in the pavement. This less than serious effort to protect the regime was not going to stop battle hardened mercenaries determined to sort out the Russian military leadership. It was going to take something much more sublime, a phone call from Lukashenko.

Two hundred kilometers outside of Moscow, Lukashenko intervened by talking Prigozhin down from the ledge. This was not a bromance made in malevolence, more a marriage of convenience between two men whose livelihoods depended upon it. What deal was negotiated did not make everything in Putin world right again. Instead, it allowed for everything to go back to abnormal. The entire ordeal was surreal and beggared belief. If this had been a movie, no one would have believed the plotline. The actors were unable to competently play their parts. Their performance was lacking in sincerity. Prigozhin looked like a deadbeat dad out to avenge those who had stopped enabling his bad behavior. The child support payments were going to stop, but in this case Prigozhin was the child.

Mutiny on the Don – Crowd in Rostov-on-Don with Wagner Tank (Credit: Fargoh)

High Stakes Soap Opera – Days of Our Dictator
The times Putin appeared during the mutiny and in its immediate aftermath, he looked as though he had aged twenty years in twenty-four hours. Not that long ago he was posing shirtless in the Siberian wilderness with a fishing rod in his hand. Now he was reduced to being a bloated stuffed suit while angrily addressing the Russian nation. While watching Putin fulminate during his appearances, it was hard not to get the stinging suspicion that he was talking more to himself than the Russian people. Putin was doing a bad job of convincing himself that he still had what it takes to administer his preferred brand of vindicative justice. This was problematical because If Putin could not convince himself, then how could he convince his fellow Russians. Putin has become a stranger to his former self, and Russia has become a geopolitical basket case. One that the rest of the world watches in disbelief. It is like a high stakes soap opera, “Days of our Dictator” starring a regime on the verge of collapse.

This was not the end of Vladimir Putin, but it strangely seemed somehow worse for him. A show of weakness that portends similar shenanigans to keep up the appearance of control. The curtain has been pulled back and the wizard is shown to be a mere mortal rifling through his grab bag of machinations, searching for something that works. Rather than the new and improved Vladimir Putin ready to fight off the western world, we have the old and irritated Putin worrying himself sick over whether his vast security apparatus could hold off a former hot dog salesman turned revolutionary leader. No one could make this stuff up. Because this Russia, such bizarre behavior can be found in its history books. It is a way of political life that keeps repeating itself with entirely new casts of characters. The characters in this latest surreal scenario look like they are ready for a Russian version of the Rocky Horror Picture Show. All this would be utterly ridiculous if these same characters were not continuing to prosecute the largest conventional war in Europe since 1945. The leading man may be a mere shell of his former menacing self, but he is still in control of a massive nuclear arsenal. This, despite the fact he cannot stop 5,000 mercenaries going on a joyless ride for the ages.

Version 2020 – Vladimir Putin (Credit: kremlin.ru)

Self-Deception – Shadowy Ways
What does all this malevolent absurdity have to do with Vladimir Putin? Well for starters, everything. The world is now experiencing Putin Version 2020. A much different Putin from earlier versions. Putin 2000 was the supposed cagey spymaster with his shadowy ways making Russia a great power again through the power of petrodollars. Then there was Putin 2010, an unkinder, harsher version of the supposed master strategist who unhinged the rules based international order by taking back Crimea and prosecuting a nasty pseudo-proxy war in eastern Ukraine. This version of Putin relished his malevolent role, working to undermine the western world. He outmaneuvered one western leader after another. He bought off Gerhard Schroder, shook down Angela Merkel, wrongfooted Barack Obama, humored Donald Trump, and fooled George W. Bush.

This supposedly made Putin a master strategist, but no one ever asked who was doing the deceiving. Was it Putin or did these leaders deceive themselves? Unspoken fears and sublime naivety helped Putin in his years long campaign to convince westerners to give him respect “or else.” Then Putin Version 2020 showed them what “or else” meant when he ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That decision has backfired to such an extent that it is doubtful if there will be a version beyond Putin 2020. That is the consequence and ultimately the question surrounding his war in Ukraine.

Click here for: Terminal Decline – Vladimir Putin Version 2020 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #328b)

Russia & The Mutineers – Cracking The Façade (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #325)

At a certain point somewhere between the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Prigozhin mutiny, observers had ceased to be shocked by the behavior of Vladimir Putin and his regime. Whether it was the murder of Ukrainian civilians in Bucha, the siege and destruction of Mariupol, indiscriminate missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, kidnapping of Ukrainian children and their forced relocation to Russia, assorted nuclear threats, the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam and resultant catastrophic flooding or countless incidents that violated the established rules of war, the shock caused by Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine had long since worn off. The war seemed to be grinding on into a prolonged stalemate. With Russian forces drowning in a quagmire of their own making and the Ukrainian counteroffensive off to a slow start, the war was growing more stagnant by the day. This was deceptive. 

Mutiny on the Don – Russian civilians & Wagner Group mercenaries in Rostov-on-Don (Credit: Fargoh)

Threat Assessment – Instability & Insurrection
Nothing is ever as it seems in Putin’s Russia. That has been especially true since the war in Ukraine began. Trying to keep up the appearance of confidence and control had been difficult, but not impossible. At least not until the events of last week. Behind the Kremlin’s façade of stability, forces of mutiny were at work that threatened the regime. A rebellion was brewing as Yevgeny Prigozhin made plans to save his Wagner mercenary forces from assimilation into the Russian military. If this happened it would do grave damage to Prigozhin’s influence on the war, as well as his many nefarious business interests. Prigozhin took to plotting a way to get at his two main enemies. Western intelligence sources believe Prigozhin planned to kidnap Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov.

On numerous occasions, Prigozhin had vocally blamed them for gross misconduct of the war. He also attempted to cultivate the support of commanders in the Russian Military, most prominently Sergei Surovinikin. It has now been revealed that Surovikin had prior knowledge of Prigozhin’s plans. The mutiny did not go as planned, but it still lasted 24 astonishing hours. Between the mutiny’s start and its end on a road 200 kilometers south of Moscow so many shocking things happened, that even the most jaded observers of Russian affairs could not help but be astonished. The mutineers, Putin and the Kremlin put on a performance that will be remembered for a long time to come.

March for justice – Wagner route towards Moscow (Credit: Rr016)

The March For Justice – Mutiny On The Don
The mutiny started but did not end with Prigozhin who decided to take an estimated 5,000 Wagner mercenaries on what he termed a “march for justice.” This nom de guerre for the mutiny would be laughable if not for the fact that Prigozhin was somewhat successful. The march went according to plan in Rostov-on-Don where Wagner drove unimpeded into the center of the city, entered Russia’s Southern Military District headquarters without so much as firing a shot. Prigozhin then had a video recorded while he demanded to see Shoigu and Gerasimov. Both had predictably vanished. The most shocking part of this was how Prigozhin was met with Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister and a Deputy Chief of Staff while everyone else just stood around waiting to see what would happen. No one fired a shot.

This part of the mutiny was revealing. It was as though anyone with their own private army could takeover one of Russia’s most important military headquarters and meet with zero resistance. The lack of resistance would be a continuing theme. The military and security forces in Russia were in a wait and see mode. Some Wagner troops stayed put at the headquarters, while Prigozhin and others headed up the highway towards Voronezh. Along the way they had a clear lane for what looked to be a run all the way to Moscow. Resistance from the military and security forces was tepid at best. One violent incident did occur with an aerial assault on the Wagner convoy. The mutineers shot several helicopters and an airborne command center down, then continued along their merry way. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin was mostly missing in action except for a five-minute screed at which he turned on his former protégé Prigozhin. The subtext of Putin’s short speech was that there would be deadly consequences for the mutineers. Well maybe.

Putin is believed to have fled Moscow for St. Petersburg. A showdown of some sort looked to be in the works. That is if the Wagner convoy could avoid being delayed by such masterfully designed barriers as holes being dug in the highway by a steam shovel and buses parked in the road. This did little to Wagner troops armed with modern military weaponry, much of it given to them by the government they now threatened to upend. Just when things looked like they were going to get ultra-violent, Prigozhin called off the mutiny. A deal had been brokered by one of the most undiplomatic leaders in Europe, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko. The latter had been a mere puppet of Putin prior to the mutiny, now he was the strongman’s savior. Prigozhin would go to Belarus, Wagner troops could go with him or join the Russian military and Putin could come out of hiding to make another useless speech. One that according to his spokesman Dmitry Peskov, would decide the future of Russia.

Broken relationship – Vladimir Putin & Yevgeny Prigozhin when they were friends (Credit: Government of the Russian Federation)

Comedy of Errors – Only In Russia
The entire episode was nothing short of madness. No one could have sold a script to Hollywood with that storyline. The first thing that comes to mind is, “only in Russia.” This would be a dark comedy, if only the stakes were not so high. Russia has one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals. The idea that a bunch of mercenaries led by a sadist might come anywhere close to taking power in Russia is chilling in the extreme. Putin has been weakened to the point that any reassertion of control threatens another rebellion. Oddly, because he is still seen as the best guarantor of stability, Putin will probably garner enough support to stay in power.

How Putin tries to recover from the mutiny will be closely watched. There is no doubt he has been severely weakened, but there are few alternatives to Putin. What does it say about the situation in Russia when Vladimir Putin is the best option? This is a man who has weakened Russia to an extent not since the early 1990’s. His hold on power is increasingly tenuous. Russia is now closer to collapse than it has been since the dark days of Boris Yeltsin’s presidency. On top of this, the Kremlin continues to prosecute a war that they can neither win nor exit. The Russians have really outdone themselves with this latest act. What comes next is anyone’s guess and that includes those in charge. Those who now wonder how bad it can get in Russia should know one thing. It will only get worse.

End Game – Prigozhin’s Mutiny & Putin’s Folly (Russian Invasion of Ukraine #324)

One of the worst disasters in American history was the Vietnam War. The ultimate acknowledgement of this fact is shown by how rarely American society discusses it. That makes trying to figure out exactly what went wrong so a similar catastrophe does happen again (such as the recent wars in Afghanistan & Iraq) more difficult. I was born during the war and by the time I was five years old American involvement had finally come to an end. The war was rarely discussed in depth and if it was, most of this was done by veterans who would come speak about their experiences to classes at our school. From what little we learned in history class it was impossible to figure out exactly what American policy was during the Vietnam War. So much happened over a wide span of time with no less than five presidential administrations involved, that trying to get a grip on the scope and scale of American involvement in Vietnam was extremely difficulty. Trying to figure out what we were doing in Vietnam, let alone why, was close to impossible. To this day, I still have trouble understanding the Vietnam War.

Irritated & Fearful – Vladimir Putin responding to the Prigozhin Mutiny

Putin On The Ritz – Decadent, Degenerate, Depraved
Now imagine for a moment, all the poor policy choices, arrogance, egotism, and incompetence that informed the decisions of American leaders during the Vietnam War compressed into a 24-hour period.  That is what the failed, or aborted, or negotiated end of the Prigozhin mutiny that occurred in Russia on June 23^rd-24^th was like. None of it seemed to make any sense, especially the unsatisfying conclusion. Yet in the context of Putin’s failed war in Ukraine even the most sublime absurdities have become not only possible, but plausible. This is the norm for a nation whose institutions are rotten to the core, where corruption is a way of life, and where life itself has so little value. Perhaps the rest of the world is having trouble making sense of what just happened, because no one can believe just how bad Russia has become. Either that, or finally after years of warnings from Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic states we are finally seeing Putin’s regime for what it is. Decadent, degenerate, depraved. It takes a lot of malevolence to make a nation this bad. A supposedly first world country with massive amounts of natural resources and a storied history of cultural accomplishments, has become a kleptocratic political apparatus filled with feuding elites.

At the helm is Vladimir Putin, whose achievements since February 24, 2022, include making Russia a vassal of China, causing an expansion of NATO which has doubled Russia’s border with members of the world’s premier military alliance, and getting hundreds of thousands of soldiers killed. All this results from prosecuting a war so badly against what had once been considered the world’s 27^th most powerful military, that it has defeated Russia in battle on countless occasions. Furthermore, through a combination of Ukrainian courage, innovation, and military acumen it now has a chance of decisively winning the war. Putin’s ineptitude has played an outsized role as well. If someone had said any of this at the beginning of 2022, they would have been labeled as crazy. And yet lunacy has become the norm when it comes to the fears of Putin’s Russia. That is why no one should be all that surprised at the madness which just unfolded this past weekend.

Making a statement – Yevgeny Prigozhin in Rostov-on-Don

The Lasting Image – Irritated & Fearful
Putin and his regime have done their very best to ensure defeat militarily, economically, and politically. Putin has even managed one of the oddest black magic acts in recent history by making the sadistic Yevgeny Prigozhin a sympathetic figure to millions of Russians for committing treason. Witness the sublime scenes in the streets around the Southern Military District Headquarters in Rostov-on-Don when Wagner troops were leaving the city. They garnered applause as onlookers took photos and gave them a warm send off. In one photo, Prigozhin looks like a forgotten uncle who has just won the national lottery. Never has treasonous activity looked like such a pleasant adventure. Fire, aim, ready is now the Russian the way of war. Meanwhile, the lasting image of Putin is an irritated and fearful old man spewing threats that he had neither the will, nor the support to carry out. The emperor has no clothes to the point that Putin is leading his own personal nudist colony in the Kremlin. The most astonishing thing is that all this has occurred on Putin’s watch because he allowed it.

Trying to figure out what is going on in the Kremlin and what may happen next is now the world’s most popular geopolitical parlor game. The intersection of political and military affairs is complex in any nation. In an open society with a free press like the United States, comprehending how policy is made and executed can be confusing. In Russia, an autocracy with state-controlled media and vast amounts of propaganda, statecraft is extremely hard to discern. Where does Putin and his regime go from here? As Russian history has shown time and again, it is a long way down to nothing at all. Thus, there are many more depths for Putin to plumb. He could try to reassert control, but this must terrify him.

The moment his orders are not obeyed then what? We have already seen how far opposing Putin can get someone in Russia. The insubordinate can drive from the Ukrainian border to within 200 kilometers of Moscow. If they have a force of 5,000 supporters with modern weaponry, they can plow right through a couple of cities along the way, plus walk right into a military headquarters and demand a meeting with a couple of the top commanders. Of course, the commanders are nowhere to be found, just like Putin who vanished for all but five angry minutes of the Prigozhin mutiny.

Making a breakthrough – Wagner Group in Rostov-on-Don

Twilight Zone – The Master Strategist
Russia is on a journey to the abyss. The road is open to any band of mercenaries, militia, or military who prefer to impose their personal ambitions and opinions on matters of state. They will get VIP treatment at the border and find an open road all the way to the outskirts of Moscow. Who knew that the Russian state was so welcoming to the treasonous. And this trip into the twilight zone of Russian affairs comes courtesy of Vladimir Putin, enabler of Prigozhin, expander of NATO, the man who failed not once, not twice, but thrice in Ukraine. Putin, the man who not so long ago was called a master strategist and is now viewed as a hapless autocrat. His rabid turn in fortunes is impossible to understand, until you realize that Vladimir Putin has finally reached his limit. The end of his regime may not yet be here, but it is getting closer every day. Putin will make sure of that.

Click here for: Russia & The Mutineers – Cracking The Façade (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #325)

Malevolent Mercenary – Ramzan Kadyrov’s Greater Ambitions (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #309)

The Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov likes to insert himself into the Ukraine-Russia War’s news cycle. It is rather obvious that Kadyrov’s cannot stand being out of the limelight for long. With Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group mercenary forces dominating the news from the battlefield since the start of January, Kadyrov has become something of a malevolent afterthought. His Chechen forces have not played an outsized role in the fighting as many expected. There was most newsworthy achievement was getting cut to pieces when the war began. Sent to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Kadyrov’s Chechens never got close. This has not kept Kadyrov from continuing to make caustic remarks and vile threats. As Russian prospects on the battlefield took a turn for the worse this past autumn, Kadyrov directed his ire not towards the Ukrainians, but instead blamed Russian military commanders for failures on the battlefield.

Looking to the future – Ramzan Kadyrov

After Putin – Survival of the Strongest
It was easy for Kadyrov to play the blame game since his role in the war has become more insignificant. At least for now, he has very little at stake on the battlefield.  Kadyrov is more commentator than actor at this stage of the war. He has taken to praising Prigozhin’s efforts at rectifying the poor performance of Russian forces on the battlefield with his Wagner Group mercenaries. This praise was as much the product of envy as it was of respect. To that end, Kadyrov recently announced that he is going to start recruiting his own mercenary forces to fight in Ukraine. He hopes to emulate or surpass Prigozhin in the future. If Kadyrov does manage to recruit and build such a force, they will be little more than cannon fodder at the front. That has been the role of Prigozhin’s forces in the Battles of Soledar and Bakhmut.

There are much more pressing reasons for Kadyrov to create his own mercenary army. The most important is that he must secure his own base of power. Secondly, Kadyrov might use his own private army to carve out a much larger role in post-Putin Russia when that time finally comes. At the very least, Kadyrov needs to ensure survival of his own personal fiefdom in Chechnya because there is no succession plan for who will lead Russia after Putin is no longer in power. An obvious successor does not exist. This is by design. A leader as paranoid and duplicitous as Putin would never allow anyone who might compete with him for power to act as an heir apparent. That could lead to the possibility of a power grab in which he could be ousted.

Putin will most likely let his coterie of confidantes and cronies fight it out among themselves to decide who will lead Russia, but only after he is gone. This could lead to chaos with the likes of Prigozhin using his Wagner Group mercenaries to help him take power or at the very least negotiate a much larger political role than the mostly nonexistent one he has now. Kadyrov also likely sees a homegrown mercenary force acting for his interests in much the same way. Control of post-Putin Russia will be based on survival of the strongest.

Greater ambitions – Yevgeny Prigozhin & Ramzan Kadyrov

Exerting Control – Power Plays
To get some idea of how chaotic post-Putin Russia might become, one only needs to look at the different military forces currently fighting on Russia’s behalf in Ukraine. While the media focus has been on the competition between the regular Russian military and the Wagner Group, there are several other significant forces fighting and dying in Putin’s War. These include forces from the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, Chechen fighters loyal to Kadyrov, and Rosgvardiya (National Guard of Russia). In a civil war, any of these forces could vie for greater control, both nationally and regionally. Even among Wagner Group mercenaries there are branches which include regular mercenaries and prisoner mercenaries. Prigozhin recently announced that he would no longer recruit prisoners. This announcement was likely influenced by the Russia’s Federal Security Services who were infuriated that Prigozhin was allowed to recruit from prisons which have been under their control.

Each of these groups have their own interests, sponsors, and constituents. This is a combustible combination, one that could easily explode without a strong national leader to settle differences among them. Putin is the ultimate arbiter of disputes among these groups, but even his control has been lacking since the war started. Failures at the front have weakened the regime. This has created opportunities for ambitiously militant men such as Prigozhin. Putin has little choice but to allow mercenaries because the Russian Army has lost so many men. Nevertheless, he has recently exerted control over the situation.

In January, Putin pivoted back in support of the military by replacing Sergei Surovikin, a favorite of Prigozhin and Kadyrov with Valery Gerasimov. This was a victory for Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defense Minister and lightning rod for criticism of the military’s performance in Ukraine. Shoigu has been the recipient of scarcely disguised vitriol on several occasions from Prigozhin and Kadyrov. While Shoigu is deserving of criticism, he is a long-time confidante of Putin and leader of a crucial ministry. Putin needs Shoigu and Gerasimov more than he does Prigozhin or Kadyrov. Surovikin was little more than a pawn in this power play. Shoigu is no threat to usurp Putin, but his dreadful leadership has done grave damage to both the Russian military and Putin.

Trigger happy – Ramzan Kadyrov

Threat Perception – Blind Ambitions
Prigozhin’s ambitions for a greater political role could eventually threaten Putin’s presidency. Better that those ambitions are halted now. Putin’s pivot in support of the military can be interpreted as a warning for Prigozhin to stay in his own lane. If not, he might fall from power. This usually occurs from a window ten or more stories up in a tall building. The Kremlin calls these “accidents.” The same goes for Kadyrov, who has similar ambitions. There is a fine line between trying to curry favor with the Kremlin and being perceived as a threat to Putin. Kadyrov rules at the behest of Putin, no matter what he or anyone else might think. Private armies can never match the power of the state unless it has been irreparably weakened. Russia is not at that point, but it could be if failures on the battlefield continue. Putin is trying to ensure that never happens. Both Prigozhin and Kadyrov should keep that in mind. Their lives may depend on it.

Click here for: Point of Arrival – Passing Through Przemysl (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #310)