For two decades, Vladimir Putin was the master of frozen conflicts. He propagated wars without end in Georgia and eastern Ukraine. Putin used Russian forces and separatist proxies to weaken both nations. Weakness in neighboring states made Russia look strong. In the case of those conflicts, Putin worked off the idea of “if you can’t beat them, just freeze them.” Rather than bringing either conflict to a definitive end, Putin preferred to have them stay unresolved. He used the war-torn areas inside Georgia and Ukraine to destabilize their governments. Putin also inherited a frozen conflict in Moldova where Russian backed separatists in Transnistria formed a breakaway statelet during the early 1990’s. Putin provided financial support and military muscle as needed to ensure that Moldova was not united again.
These frozen conflicts allowed Russian influence to fester in a variety of nefarious manners. The military aspects of each conflict were relatively low intensity. To paraphrase famed Prussian strategist Carl von Clausewitz, “Frozen conflicts are politics by other means.” Russia was able to exert control over these nation’s internal affairs by sowing the seeds of discord. In retrospect, this strategy was prone to gambler’s error. It worked, it worked, it worked and until one day it didn’t. That day came when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine failed.
On The Defensive – No Going Back
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was extraordinary because Putin abandoned the frozen conflict ideal in a bid for total victory. Only after Ukraine fought back with support from the western world, did the discussion turn to Putin possibly freezing the conflict. This would lock Russian gains in place and further his continued efforts to destabilize Ukraine. A strange situation is now taking place where Russia is stuck in what amounts to a frozen conflict both in Ukraine and on the home front. Putin has managed to destabilize his own regime. In Ukraine, Russia’s troops are no longer capable of launching any major offensives. Each Russian offensive is less successful than the one before it. Now the Russian military is stuck in Ukraine. Militarily they cannot go forward and politically they are not allowed to go back. They have been reduced to playing defense.
Holding the line has become the Russian’s main strategy. This is extremely difficult to do over a long period of time. A sporting analogy best explains their untenable situation. Imagine Russia as a sports team that took the lead early in a game. Momentum is soon lost as the inevitable triumph turns into a desperate attempt to stave off eventual defeat. They spend the rest of the game trying to protect a dwindling lead. “Bend but not break” becomes their maxim. In a last gasp of desperate motivation, they try a strategy of “the best defense is a good offense.” This results in miniscule gains at an exorbitant cost. They exhaust themselves just trying to hold on. This increasingly precarious position results in a final collapse and devastating defeat. This is the situation the Russian military now finds itself in. The longer they try to hold their gains, the more these are threatened.
Mutinous behavior- Yevgeny Prigozhin
Dead Ends – Stalling For Time
Putin is playing stall ball, trying to run out the clock on Ukraine and its allies. In the Russian lines, the troops are trying a “wait and see” approach. This could easily turn into a “wait and seethe” situation where the morale of Russian troops plummets even further from its already abysmal level. At a certain point, this could lead to an implosion where Russian troops turn on their own side. To a certain extent, that already happened with the mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenary forces. This has led to the other frozen conflict where Putin and his regime are held hostage on the home front.
If Putin purges the military, he will be giving in to Prigozhin’s demands for the removal of Russia’s incompetent senior military leadership. If Putin goes after Prigozhin, then he may find himself with another mutiny on his hands. Putin does have a third option, try to maintain the status quo. In other words, do nothing while appearing to do something. This is largely what he has done so far. In the short term, this strategy is probably tenable, but long term it will erode Putin’s support and weaken his already embattled regime. When doing nothing about a mutiny is the best option, the problem is acute.
Putin is aware that there is no easy way out of a frozen conflict. That is why conflicts in Georgia, Transnistria, and eastern Ukraine (until the full-scale invasion) stayed frozen for so long. Putin has put himself in the worst position possible. He needs to make some extremely dangerous decisions before events control him rather than the other way around. At this point, he looks incapable of doing that. Ironically, Putin is frozen. This is the classic “damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario.” Each day that Putin’s frozen conflict inside Russia continues, the greater the odds that he will face another mutiny or even worse, a full-blown coup.
Putin is stuck, but so are the Russian elites who could replace him. Putin is the guarantor of their ill-gotten gains. These elites have a lot to lose, and not just in wealth. The fall of Putin could cost them their lives as well as their livelihoods. They are stuck with Putin because there is no better or clear alternatives. Putin’s hollowing out of Russian institutions and squeezing of internal opponents has been so thorough, that he remains the ultimate authority for now. There is nowhere for them to run other than in circles. All roads lead to dead ends or back to Putin, which at this point is the same thing.
Risk Aversion – Caught In A Trap
The only way for Russians to end the frozen conflict on the home front is to get rid of Putin. That entails huge risks. Who and what comes after him is the great unknown. Judging by Russian history, it would not be good. The only way for Putin to end the frozen conflict is by undermining his own regime. No wonder Putin has been dithering since the mutiny. He is now caught in a trap of his own making. This is a situation he has never faced before. He is at the mercy of events, rather than controlling them. It has been this way in the war with Ukraine for a long time. Only recently, has the same thing happened inside Russia. Putin is being forced to react and his main reaction has been inaction. Putin and his regime look out of their depths. This is not surprising. Putin always knew how to start frozen conflicts, but he has no experience ending them.
Coming soon: The Show Must Go On – Vladimir Putin Version 2020 (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #328a)